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Northwestern vs Michigan State Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 08 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 88-74
46-31 42-43
Position#86
Record10-3
FormLWWWL
Points / game72.4
Allowed / game65.6
vs
Position#154
Record9-5
FormWWWWW
Points / game78.3
Allowed / game64.3
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Northwestern v Michigan State
12 Jan 2025
NORT68
MICH78
07 Jan 2024
NORT88
MICH74
02 Jan 2022
NORT67
MICH73
20 Dec 2020
NORT79
MICH65
18 Dec 2019
NORT72
MICH77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Northwestern winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Michigan State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NorthwesternUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rhode Island
#301
W
72-61
72
61
+11
H18/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#130
L
57-66
57
66
-9
A19/11
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#307
W
89-67
89
67
+22
H28/11
NCAA
Purdue
#8
W
92-88 OT
92
88
+4
H02/12
NCAA
Detroit
#370
W
91-59
91
59
+32
H10/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#286
L
73-75
73
75
-2
H14/12
NCAA
DePaul
#367
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A16/12
NCAA
Arizona State
#267
W
65-46
65
46
+19
A21/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#253
W
74-63
74
63
+11
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois
#27
L
66-96
66
96
-30
A03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-26
39-35
29-27
28-39
41-42
48-25
32-40
44-36
43-33
–
38-37
35-38
25-25
31-21
36-13
29-33
39-33
35-30
29-46
37-50
140.2Avg total
73.5Scored
66.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)72.465.6138.0+6.877%
Season at home (9)77.466.6144.0+10.989%
Season away (4)61.063.5124.5-2.550%
Last 10 (10)73.566.7140.2+6.870%
Last 5 (5)66.865.2132.0+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)71.277.5148.8-6.250%
vs Similar ◀ (15)64.965.5130.3-0.653%
vs Weaker (11)74.060.1134.1+13.991%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alcorn State
#268
W
81-49
81
49
+32
H19/11
NCAA
Arizona
#31
L
68-74
68
74
-6
H23/11
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#341
W
86-55
86
55
+31
H28/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
L
57-70
57
70
-13
H06/12
NCAA
Nebraska
#62
L
70-77
70
77
-7
A10/12
NCAA
Baylor
#58
W
88-64
88
64
+24
H16/12
NCAA
Oakland
#76
W
79-62
79
62
+17
H19/12
NCAA
Stony Brook
#155
W
99-55
99
55
+44
H21/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
W
87-75
87
75
+12
H30/12
NCAA
Penn State
#216
W
92-61
92
61
+31
H05/01
NCAA
1H
2H
44-16
37-33
30-40
38-34
38-11
48-44
23-34
34-36
34-31
36-46
45-17
43-47
30-22
49-40
48-12
51-43
44-34
43-41
51-26
41-35
144.9Avg total
80.7Scored
64.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)78.364.3142.6+14.064%
Season at home (13)78.963.3142.2+15.669%
Season away (1)70.077.0147.0-7.00%
Last 10 (10)80.764.2144.9+16.570%
Last 5 (5)89.063.4152.4+25.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)68.969.6138.5-0.838%
vs Similar ◀ (16)74.471.0145.4+3.456%
vs Weaker (6)85.356.3141.7+29.0100%
This opponent (Northwestern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-18-9+0+9+181st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: +14.4+14.42nd half2nd half: +2.1+2.12nd half: +2.1+2.1
-18-9+0+9+181st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: +14.4+14.42nd half2nd half: +2.1+2.12nd half: +2.1+2.1
NorthwesternMichigan State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NorthwesternLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rhode Island
#301
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H18/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#130
W
29-27
29
27
+2
A19/11
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#307
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H28/11
NCAA
Purdue
#8
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H02/12
NCAA
Detroit
#370
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H10/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#286
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H14/12
NCAA
DePaul
#367
D
25-25
25
25
+0
A16/12
NCAA
Arizona State
#267
W
36-13
36
13
+23
A21/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#253
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H30/12
NCAA
Illinois
#27
L
29-46
29
46
-17
A03/01
NCAA
66.7Avg total
34.5Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.829.863.5+4.067%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.130.465.5+4.772%-
Last 30 away (12)31.828.860.6+2.958%-
Last 10 (10)34.532.266.7+2.360%-
Last 5 (5)33.430.864.2+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)29.039.568.5-10.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)32.226.758.9+5.580%-
vs Weaker (11)37.630.468.0+7.373%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alcorn State
#268
W
44-16
44
16
+28
H19/11
NCAA
Arizona
#31
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H23/11
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#341
W
38-11
38
11
+27
H28/11
NCAA
Wisconsin
#117
L
23-34
23
34
-11
H06/12
NCAA
Nebraska
#62
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A10/12
NCAA
Baylor
#58
W
45-17
45
17
+28
H16/12
NCAA
Oakland
#76
W
30-22
30
22
+8
H19/12
NCAA
Stony Brook
#155
W
48-12
48
12
+36
H21/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H30/12
NCAA
Penn State
#216
W
51-26
51
26
+25
H05/01
NCAA
63.0Avg total
38.7Scored
24.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.328.562.8+5.863%-
Last 30 at home (20)35.626.562.1+9.170%-
Last 30 away (10)31.532.564.0-1.050%-
Last 10 (10)38.724.363.0+14.480%-
Last 5 (5)43.622.265.8+21.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)30.432.462.8-2.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)33.829.963.8+3.962%-
vs Weaker (6)40.719.560.2+21.283%-
This opponent (Northwestern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Northwestern wins
3
Michigan State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/24AIllinois66-96
30/12/23HJackson State74-63
21/12/23AArizona State65-46
16/12/23ADePaul56-46
14/12/23HChicago State73-75
10/12/23HDetroit91-59
02/12/23HPurdue92-88 OT
28/11/23HNorthern Illinois89-67
19/11/23AMississippi St.57-66
18/11/23HRhode Island72-61
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/01/24HPenn State92-61
30/12/23HIndiana State87-75
21/12/23HStony Brook99-55
19/12/23HOakland79-62
16/12/23HBaylor88-64
10/12/23ANebraska70-77
06/12/23HWisconsin57-70
28/11/23HGeorgia Southern86-55
23/11/23HArizona68-74
19/11/23HAlcorn State81-49

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Northwestern
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL77%
HomeWWWLW89%
AwayLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1394
Win %77%89%50%
Points / game72.477.461.0
Allowed / game65.666.663.5
Point differential+6.8+10.9-2.5
Avg total138.0144.0124.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%56%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)75% (4)-
Overtime %8%11%0%
Michigan State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW64%
HomeWWWWW69%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14131
Win %64%69%0%
Points / game78.378.970.0
Allowed / game64.363.377.0
Point differential+14.0+15.6-7.0
Avg total142.6142.2147.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%69%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %7%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Purdue1514193%85.267.7+17.5
2 Minnesota1512380%78.966.3+12.6
3 Ohio State1512380%78.165.8+12.3
4 Nebraska1512380%77.867.3+10.5
5 Oregon1512380%78.771.4+7.3
6 Illinois1411379%83.566.8+16.7
7 Wisconsin1411379%75.865.9+9.9
8 Northwestern1310377%72.465.6+6.8
9 Indiana1511473%75.573.7+1.9
10 Michigan State149564%78.364.3+14.0
11 Iowa159660%86.777.7+8.9
12 Maryland159660%71.163.7+7.3
13 Washington159660%81.775.7+6.0
14 Rutgers148657%68.564.2+4.3
15 Penn State158753%76.571.9+4.5
16 USC158753%78.975.0+3.9
17 UCLA156940%65.562.2+3.3
18 Michigan156940%81.778.7+3.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Northwestern464288
Michigan State314374
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