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Notre Dame vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 25 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 56-100
0-0 22-54 0-0 34-46
Position#269
Record12-15
FormLLLWL
Points / game74.4
Allowed / game73.4
Notre Dame
USA
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#8
Record25-2
FormLWWWW
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game63.1
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Notre Dame v Duke
24 Feb 2026
NOTR56
DUKE100
06 Jan 2024
NOTR59
DUKE67
31 Jan 2022
NOTR43
DUKE57
16 Dec 2020
NOTR65
DUKE75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Notre Dame winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Notre DameUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#122
L
76-89
76
89
-13
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
69-91
69
91
-22
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H24/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
97-100 OT
97
100
-3
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
72-86
72
86
-14
A31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
65-76
65
76
-11
A05/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
79-82
79
82
-3
H07/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
81-89
81
89
-8
A11/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
89-74
89
74
+15
H14/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
34-45
0-0
42-44
0-0
33-42
0-0
36-49
0-0
24-35
0-0
44-29
0-0
44-35
0-0
29-38
0-0
31-40
0-0
41-46
0-0
32-38
0-0
33-38
0-0
32-41
0-0
47-41
0-0
37-43
0-0
44-46
0-0
45-33
0-0
44-41
0-0
20-23
0-0
48-50
158.8Avg total
76.4Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)74.473.4147.8+1.044%
Season at home (15)79.572.0151.5+7.567%
Season away (12)68.075.2143.2-7.217%
Last 10 (10)76.482.4158.8-6.020%
Last 5 (5)76.478.8155.2-2.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)68.874.5143.3-5.629%
vs Similar (12)81.774.8156.5+6.867%
vs Weaker (1)82.058.0140.0+24.0100%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
W
80-50
80
50
+30
A17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
90-69
90
69
+21
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
83-52
83
52
+31
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
72-58
72
58
+14
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
67-49
67
49
+18
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
68-71
68
71
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
70-54
70
54
+16
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
101-64
101
64
+37
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
35-19
0-0
45-31
0-0
42-31
0-0
48-38
0-0
38-28
0-0
45-24
0-0
40-31
0-0
32-27
0-0
42-27
0-0
25-22
0-0
41-29
0-0
27-42
0-0
35-29
0-0
35-25
0-0
31-26
0-0
36-28
0-0
40-24
0-0
61-40
0-0
35-33
0-0
33-30
135.0Avg total
76.6Scored
58.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)82.463.1145.6+19.393%
Season at home (17)84.162.7146.8+21.494%
Season away (10)79.663.9143.5+15.790%
Last 10 (10)76.658.4135.0+18.290%
Last 5 (5)74.861.2136.0+13.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)67.564.5132.0+3.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)83.664.4148.1+19.289%
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: +10.2+10.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: +8.0+8.0
-13-6+0+6+13Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: +10.2+10.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: +8.0+8.0
Notre DameDuke
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Notre DameLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia Tech
#122
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
24-35
24
35
-11
H24/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A05/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H07/02
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A11/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H14/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
20-23
20
23
-3
A21/02
NCAA
70.7Avg total
33.2Scored
37.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.233.967.0-0.743%-
Last 30 at home (17)35.232.067.2+3.259%-
Last 30 away (13)30.536.366.8-5.823%-
Last 10 (10)33.237.570.7-4.320%-
Last 5 (5)33.235.668.8-2.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)32.536.368.8-3.829%-
vs Similar (12)33.430.864.2+2.658%-
vs Weaker (1)41.029.070.0+12.0100%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
W
35-19
35
19
+16
A17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
38-28
38
28
+10
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
42-27
42
27
+15
H04/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A07/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A11/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
40-24
40
24
+16
H17/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H21/02
NCAA
65.6Avg total
37.9Scored
27.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.831.472.1+9.483%-
Last 30 at home (20)41.730.872.5+11.090%-
Last 30 away (10)38.932.671.5+6.370%-
Last 10 (10)37.927.765.6+10.2100%-
Last 5 (5)36.428.264.6+8.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)35.528.564.0+7.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)41.131.672.7+9.682%-
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Notre Dame wins
7
Duke wins
DateGameScore
11/01/25Duke v Notre Dame86-78
08/02/24Duke v Notre Dame71-53
06/01/24Notre Dame v Duke59-67
15/02/23Duke v Notre Dame68-64
01/02/22Notre Dame v Duke43-57
09/02/21Duke v Notre Dame89-93
17/12/20Notre Dame v Duke65-75
15/02/20Duke v Notre Dame94-60
Notre Damelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/26APittsburgh68-73
14/02/26HGeorgia Tech89-74
11/02/26ASMU Mustangs81-89
07/02/26HFlorida State79-82
05/02/26ALouisville65-76
31/01/26ASyracuse72-86
28/01/26HVirginia97-100 OT
24/01/26HBoston College68-64
22/01/26ANorth Carolina69-91
17/01/26AVirginia Tech76-89
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/26HMichigan68-63
17/02/26HSyracuse101-64
14/02/26HClemson67-54
11/02/26APittsburgh70-54
07/02/26ANorth Carolina68-71
04/02/26HBoston College67-49
31/01/26AVirginia Tech72-58
27/01/26HLouisville83-52
24/01/26HWake Forest90-69
17/01/26AStanford80-50

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Notre Dame
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL44%
HomeLWLLW67%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271512
Win %44%67%17%
Points / game74.479.568.0
Allowed / game73.472.075.2
Point differential+1.0+7.5-7.2
Avg total147.8151.5143.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)50% (6)25% (4)
Overtime %7%7%8%
Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW93%
HomeWWWWW94%
AwayWWWLW90%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271710
Win %93%94%90%
Points / game82.484.179.6
Allowed / game63.162.763.9
Point differential+19.3+21.4+15.7
Avg total145.6146.8143.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%71%60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2725293%82.463.1+19.3
2 Virginia2824486%81.069.4+11.7
3 North Carolina2822679%80.670.8+9.9
4 Miami (FL)2721678%82.970.5+12.4
5 Louisville2820871%86.472.0+14.4
6 Clemson2820871%74.565.6+8.9
7 NC State2719870%84.973.8+11.1
8 SMU Mustangs2719870%86.877.6+9.3
9 California2719870%78.772.7+6.0
10 Virginia Tech28181064%78.874.0+4.8
11 Stanford27161159%75.172.5+2.6
12 Syracuse28151354%75.673.4+2.2
13 Florida State27141352%80.077.7+2.3
14 Wake Forest27141352%79.377.2+2.1
15 Notre Dame27121544%74.473.4+1.0
16 Georgia Tech28111739%74.177.3-3.2
17 Pittsburgh27101737%70.071.6-1.6
18 Boston College2791833%67.770.6-2.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Notre Dame02203456
Duke054046100
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