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NW Tasmania vs Mt Gambier Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 05 Jul 2025
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 74-107
21-36 19-24 14-26 20-21
Position#18
Record5-12
FormLWWLL
Points / game86.3
Allowed / game88.6
vs
Position#2
Record12-6
FormWLLWW
Points / game96.1
Allowed / game85.2
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · NW Tasmania v Mt Gambier
05 Jul 2025
NW T74
MT G107
08 Jul 2023
NW T80
MT G81
29 May 2021
NW T94
MT G104
18 Jun 2016
NW T68
MT G98
25 Jul 2015
NW T83
MT G86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NW Tasmania winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Mt Gambier winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NW TasmaniaAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ballarat
#5
L
78-81
78
81
-3
A04/05
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
71-84
71
84
-13
H10/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
L
89-90
89
90
-1
H17/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
87-107
87
107
-20
H24/05
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
85-96
85
96
-11
A30/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
82-102
82
102
-20
A14/06
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
97-85
97
85
+12
A15/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
97-86
97
86
+11
H21/06
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
83-98
83
98
-15
A28/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
L
77-85
77
85
-8
A29/06
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-25
12-22
21-14
27-20
13-29
20-19
17-11
21-25
29-26
19-21
21-24
20-19
13-31
23-21
23-28
28-27
25-27
27-23
10-23
23-23
16-26
24-27
18-26
24-23
30-16
19-21
22-22
26-26
20-20
28-12
23-24
26-30
20-25
20-20
16-21
27-32
15-26
19-18
23-24
20-17
176.0Avg total
84.6Scored
91.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)86.388.6174.9-2.429%
Season at home (8)87.185.5172.6+1.638%
Season away (9)85.691.4177.0-5.922%
Last 10 (10)84.691.4176.0-6.820%
Last 5 (5)87.291.2178.4-4.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)82.491.4173.8-9.021%
vs Similar (9)88.881.6170.3+7.267%
vs Weaker (2)83.583.0166.5+0.550%
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mt GambierAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
93-91
93
91
+2
A10/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
94-88
94
88
+6
H18/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
116-69
116
69
+47
A24/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
100-70
100
70
+30
A25/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
L
96-98
96
98
-2
H30/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
W
100-99
100
99
+1
A14/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
105-106 OT
105
106
-1
A15/06
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
84-95
84
95
-11
H20/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
96-76
96
76
+20
H27/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
87-77
87
77
+10
A04/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-23
28-22
30-21
12-25
37-25
16-31
17-18
24-14
42-11
31-18
20-19
23-21
27-19
31-12
19-24
23-15
35-24
16-27
27-20
18-27
29-25
21-17
33-32
17-25
20-20
20-26
27-30
22-13
24-16
19-25
19-40
22-14
24-20
23-21
26-16
23-19
19-19
23-20
31-17
14-21
184.0Avg total
97.1Scored
86.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)96.185.2181.3+10.967%
Season at home (8)91.681.9173.5+9.862%
Season away (10)99.787.9187.6+11.870%
Last 10 (10)97.186.9184.0+10.270%
Last 5 (5)94.490.6185.0+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)78.083.7161.7-5.733%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)94.682.7177.3+12.070%
This opponent (NW Tasmania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -5.2-5.2Q1: +7.8+7.8Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +0.4+0.4
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -5.2-5.2Q1: +7.8+7.8Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +0.4+0.4
NW TasmaniaMt Gambier
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NW TasmaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ballarat
#5
L
30-47
30
47
-17
A04/05
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
33-48
33
48
-15
H10/05
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
48-47
48
47
+1
H17/05
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
36-52
36
52
-16
H24/05
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
52-50
52
50
+2
A30/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
40-53
40
53
-13
A14/06
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
49-37
49
37
+12
A15/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H21/06
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A28/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A29/06
NBL1 South
86.5Avg total
41.0Scored
45.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.744.986.7-3.233%-
Last 30 at home (12)44.342.987.2+1.458%-
Last 30 away (18)40.046.386.3-6.317%-
Last 10 (10)41.045.586.5-4.540%-
Last 5 (5)42.242.284.4+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)41.546.688.1-5.132%-
vs Similar (9)42.841.784.4+1.144%-
vs Weaker (2)39.044.083.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mt GambierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A10/05
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
L
53-56
53
56
-3
H18/05
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
73-29
73
29
+44
A24/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
58-31
58
31
+27
A25/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
D
51-51
51
51
+0
H30/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
W
50-42
50
42
+8
A14/06
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A15/06
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H20/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H27/06
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A04/07
NBL1 South
92.9Avg total
50.8Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.340.789.0+7.670%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.240.986.1+4.360%-
Last 30 away (15)51.340.591.9+10.880%-
Last 10 (10)50.842.192.9+8.770%-
Last 5 (5)44.441.886.2+2.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)35.038.373.3-3.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)49.741.090.7+8.874%-
This opponent (NW Tasmania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
NW Tasmania wins
8
Mt Gambier wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/06/25ADiamond Valley77-85
28/06/25AMelbourne Tigers83-98
21/06/25HKnox97-86
15/06/25AGeelong97-85
14/06/25ACasey Cavaliers82-102
30/05/25AHobart Chargers85-96
24/05/25HRingwood87-107
17/05/25HEltham89-90
10/05/25HNunawading71-84
04/05/25ABallarat78-81
Mt Gambierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/07/25AHobart Chargers87-77
27/06/25HDiamond Valley96-76
20/06/25HMelbourne Tigers84-95
15/06/25AKnox105-106 OT
14/06/25AKilsyth100-99
30/05/25HDandenong96-98
25/05/25ABendigo Braves100-70
24/05/25ABallarat116-69
18/05/25HGeelong94-88
10/05/25ACasey Cavaliers93-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

NW Tasmania
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL29%
HomeWLLLW38%
AwayLLWLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %29%38%22%
Points / game86.387.185.6
Allowed / game88.685.591.4
Point differential-2.4+1.6-5.9
Avg total174.9172.6177.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)33% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mt Gambier
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW67%
HomeWWLLW62%
AwayWWWLW70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %67%62%70%
Points / game96.191.699.7
Allowed / game85.281.987.9
Point differential+10.9+9.8+11.8
Avg total181.3173.5187.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%38%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)0% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %6%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox1814478%91.382.9+8.3
2 Mt Gambier1812667%96.185.2+10.9
3 Melbourne Tigers1711665%87.679.5+8.1
4 Casey Cavaliers1710759%89.185.0+4.1
5 Ballarat1710759%88.591.9-3.4
6 Sandringham Sabres169756%92.591.2+1.3
7 Hobart Chargers1810856%86.984.5+2.4
8 Kilsyth1810856%87.285.4+1.8
9 Eltham179853%87.086.3+0.7
10 Waverley179853%93.094.4-1.4
11 Ringwood189950%93.990.9+3.1
12 Frankston178947%92.388.5+3.8
13 Nunawading178947%86.286.9-0.8
14 Bendigo Braves1981142%84.493.3-8.9
15 Geelong1771041%83.788.6-4.9
16 Keilor Thunder1661038%82.689.2-6.6
17 NW Tasmania1751229%86.388.6-2.4
18 Diamond Valley1751229%84.593.8-9.4
19 Dandenong1741324%89.196.6-7.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
NW Tasmania2119142074
Mt Gambier36242621107
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