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Paulistano vs Botafogo Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 04 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 101-77
28-19 28-20 22-21 23-17
Position#7
Record7-5
FormWLLWW
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game75.9
vs
Position#16
Record3-9
FormLLLWL
Points / game70.8
Allowed / game80.0
BrazilNBB· Ginasio Antonio Prado Jr
Other2025-26
Meetings · Paulistano v Botafogo
04 Dec 2025
PAUL101
BOTA77
02 Nov 2024
PAUL88
BOTA70
07 Dec 2023
PAUL85
BOTA77
16 Jan 2020
PAUL73
BOTA72
24 Mar 2019
PAUL100
BOTA104
01 Mar 2018
PAUL112
BOTA64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paulistano winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Botafogo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PaulistanoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulistano
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
L
87-89
87
89
-2
77avg 71
A28/10
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
54-71
54
71
-17
46avg 71
A30/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
W
80-71
80
71
+9
69avg 71
H04/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
W
81-76
81
76
+5
77avg 71
H06/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
94-81
94
81
+13
92avg 71
A09/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
W
101-65
101
65
+36
99avg 71
H13/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
80-82
80
82
-2
69avg 71
H15/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
63-94
63
94
-31
50avg 71
A18/11
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
W
106-86
106
86
+20
108avg 71
A20/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
W
77-66
77
66
+11
73avg 71
H23/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-21
20-18
10-26
25-24
13-20
18-20
14-14
9-17
18-15
19-13
17-26
26-17
18-12
23-18
26-22
14-24
23-17
24-29
19-18
28-17
28-17
23-19
19-17
31-12
15-21
19-23
29-25
17-13
18-28
24-25
13-23
8-18
29-11
23-18
28-26
26-31
26-13
14-16
20-13
17-24
160.4Avg total
82.3Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)79.875.9155.8+3.958%
Season at home (7)79.170.0149.1+9.171%
Season away (5)80.884.2165.0-3.440%
Last 10 (10)82.378.1160.4+4.260%
Last 5 (5)85.478.6164.0+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)71.875.0146.8-3.220%
vs Similar (17)71.776.2147.9-4.541%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)91.179.6170.8+11.562%
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBotafogo
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
L
72-85
72
85
-13
59avg 65
H26/10
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
45-87
45
87
-42
30avg 65
A29/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
64-77
64
77
-13
51avg 65
A01/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
75-90
75
90
-15
66avg 65
A03/11
NBB
Pato
#17
W
82-75
82
75
+7
79avg 65
H07/11
NBB
Franca
#1
L
61-91
61
91
-30
44avg 65
A10/11
NBB
Bauru
#10
L
71-73
71
73
-2
65avg 65
A13/11
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
70-82
70
82
-12
65avg 65
H18/11
NBB
Rio Claro
#15
W
74-61
74
61
+13
71avg 65
H20/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
L
70-79
70
79
-9
59avg 65
A02/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-15
9-23
24-24
12-23
9-24
18-19
8-28
10-16
10-19
26-23
14-12
14-23
12-20
17-28
23-17
23-25
20-16
26-14
16-16
20-29
14-26
9-22
18-24
20-19
25-19
15-18
17-14
14-22
22-25
19-15
12-19
17-23
19-23
13-7
24-17
18-14
15-23
20-21
22-16
13-19
148.4Avg total
68.4Scored
80.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)70.880.0150.8-9.225%
Season at home (6)77.277.2154.3+0.050%
Season away (6)64.382.8147.2-18.50%
Last 10 (10)68.480.0148.4-11.620%
Last 5 (5)69.277.2146.4-8.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)71.083.8154.8-12.918%
vs Similar (8)78.677.6156.2+1.050%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Paulistano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.5+4.5Q1: -3.7-3.7Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: -0.9-0.9Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: -5.2-5.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.5+4.5Q1: -3.7-3.7Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: -0.9-0.9Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: -5.2-5.2
PaulistanoBotafogo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PaulistanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rio Claro
#15
W
52-39
52
39
+13
A28/10
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A30/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H04/11
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
W
41-30
41
30
+11
H06/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A09/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
W
51-36
51
36
+15
H13/11
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
34-44
34
44
-10
H15/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
42-53
42
53
-11
A18/11
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
W
52-29
52
29
+23
A20/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H23/11
NBB
80.1Avg total
42.7Scored
37.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.937.676.6+1.350%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.237.776.9+1.553%-
Last 30 away (15)38.737.676.3+1.147%-
Last 10 (10)42.737.480.1+5.370%-
Last 5 (5)43.838.282.0+5.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)38.037.075.0+1.060%-
vs Similar (17)36.638.274.9-1.635%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)44.436.881.1+7.675%-
This opponent (Botafogo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BotafogoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#11
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H26/10
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
27-43
27
43
-16
A29/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A01/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
29-48
29
48
-19
A03/11
NBB
Pato
#17
W
46-30
46
30
+16
H07/11
NBB
Franca
#1
L
23-48
23
48
-25
A10/11
NBB
Bauru
#10
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A13/11
NBB
Brasilia
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H18/11
NBB
Rio Claro
#15
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H20/11
NBB
Osasco
#18
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A02/12
NBB
74.5Avg total
34.5Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.941.478.2-4.537%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.539.780.3+0.853%-
Last 30 away (15)33.243.076.2-9.820%-
Last 10 (10)34.540.074.5-5.540%-
Last 5 (5)34.239.874.0-5.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)35.942.978.8-7.027%-
vs Similar (8)39.637.176.8+2.562%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Paulistano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Paulistanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Paulistano: 81.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.617.3
47.3%
52.2%34.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.710.4
36.2%
32.5%31.2
🏀 Free throws19.715.5
78.7%
72.8%15.5
They take 65.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Botafogotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Botafogo: 67.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.117.5
47.2%
52.2%35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.76.5
28.6%
32.5%19.5
🏀 Free throws19.412.7
65.5%
72.8%12.7
They take 59.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Paulistano
WWLLWWWWLL
Botafogo
LWLLLWLLLL
#7
League position
#16
+5.6
Net rating
-16.3
108.3
Offensive rating
89.6
102.7
Defensive rating
105.9
50.4%
Effective FG%
45.6%
48.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.2%
17.4%
Turnover %
22.2%
32.5%
Off. rebound %
27.3%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.32
36.2%
3-point %
28.6%
59.6%
Assist %
51.7%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence108.3 · 89.6Defence102.7 · 105.9Shooting50.4% · 45.6%3-point %36.2% · 28.6%Ball care17.4% · 22.2%Off. rebounds32.5% · 27.3%Free throws0.30 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ Paulistano   ■ Botafogo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Paulistano wins
2
Botafogo wins
DateGameScore
03/04/25Botafogo v Paulistano64-85
02/11/24Paulistano v Botafogo88-70
14/01/24Botafogo v Paulistano68-85
07/12/23Paulistano v Botafogo85-77
16/01/20Paulistano v Botafogo73-72
29/10/19Botafogo v Paulistano70-84
24/03/19Paulistano v Botafogo100-104
30/10/18Botafogo v Paulistano77-74
01/03/18Paulistano v Botafogo112-64
21/12/17Botafogo v Paulistano74-93
Paulistanolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/11/25HCaxias do Sul77-66
20/11/25ACruzeiro106-86
18/11/25AMinas63-94
15/11/25HFlamengo80-82
13/11/25HUniao Corinthians101-65
09/11/25AOsasco94-81
06/11/25HPinheiros81-76
04/11/25HSao Jose80-71
30/10/25ABrasilia54-71
28/10/25ARio Claro87-89
Botafogolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/12/25AOsasco70-79
20/11/25HRio Claro74-61
18/11/25HBrasilia70-82
13/11/25ABauru71-73
10/11/25AFranca61-91
07/11/25HPato82-75
03/11/25ACorinthians Paulista75-90
01/11/25ASao Jose64-77
29/10/25AMogi45-87
26/10/25HUnifacisa72-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Paulistano
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW58%
HomeWWWLW71%
AwayLLWLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1275
Win %58%71%40%
Points / game79.879.180.8
Allowed / game75.970.084.2
Point differential+3.9+9.1-3.4
Avg total155.8149.1165.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%29%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)33% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Botafogo
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL25%
HomeWLWLW50%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game70.877.264.3
Allowed / game80.077.282.8
Point differential-9.2+0.0-18.5
Avg total150.8154.3147.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo1311285%87.374.4+12.9
2 Minas1311285%86.276.8+9.5
3 Brasilia119282%83.269.8+13.4
4 Pinheiros119282%84.275.6+8.5
5 Franca1310377%85.672.8+12.8
6 Mogi118373%82.766.1+16.6
7 Corinthians Paulista118373%83.575.1+8.5
8 Sao Jose117464%78.775.8+2.9
9 Paulistano127558%79.875.9+3.9
10 Unifacisa105550%79.179.0+0.1
11 Caxias do Sul115645%72.277.1-4.9
12 Uniao Corinthians115645%76.784.3-7.5
13 Bauru135838%73.676.8-3.2
14 Osasco134931%76.185.3-9.2
15 Cearense103730%79.184.5-5.4
16 Botafogo123925%70.880.0-9.2
17 Rio Claro123925%76.788.9-12.2
18 Cruzeiro1431121%76.486.7-10.4
19 Pato1221017%70.381.0-10.7
20 Vasco120120%66.080.2-14.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Paulistano28282223101
Botafogo1920211777
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