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Penn State vs Michigan Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 72-74
31-40 41-34
Position#298
Record9-5
FormLLLWL
Points / game78.1
Allowed / game74.2
Penn State
USA
vs
Michigan 🏆
USA
Position#6
Record13-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game96.7
Allowed / game66.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Penn State v Michigan
06 Jan 2026
PENN72
MICH74
13 Mar 2024
PENN66
MICH57
07 Jan 2024
PENN79
MICH73
29 Jan 2023
PENN83
MICH61
08 Feb 2022
PENN57
MICH58
09 Jan 2021
PENN v MICH
upcoming
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penn State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Michigan winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Penn StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Harvard
#133
W
84-80
84
80
+4
H19/11
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
65-77
65
77
-12
H22/11
NCAA
Boston University
#211
W
96-87
96
87
+9
H26/11
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
90-59
90
59
+31
H29/11
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
87-76
87
76
+11
H02/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
L
72-113
72
113
-41
A10/12
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
72-76
72
76
-4
H13/12
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
46-80
46
80
-34
H21/12
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
90-67
90
67
+23
H29/12
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
65-73
65
73
-8
H04/01
NCAA
1H
2H
35-38
49-42
31-32
34-45
51-35
45-52
47-20
43-39
46-39
41-37
26-58
46-55
39-36
33-40
20-40
26-40
36-33
54-34
26-40
39-33
155.5Avg total
76.7Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)78.174.2152.3+3.964%
Season at home (12)77.873.6151.4+4.267%
Season away (2)79.578.0157.5+1.550%
Last 10 (10)76.778.8155.5-2.150%
Last 5 (5)69.081.8150.8-12.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)76.475.8152.1+0.650%
vs Similar (11)74.977.5152.4-2.536%
vs Weaker (5)70.073.6143.6-3.640%
This opponent (Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MichiganUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
W
86-61
86
61
+25
H19/11
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
94-54
94
54
+40
H25/11
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
102-72
102
72
+30
A26/11
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
101-61
101
61
+40
H27/11
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
101-60
101
60
+41
H06/12
NCAA
Villanova
#46
W
89-61
89
61
+28
H09/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
101-83
101
83
+18
A14/12
NCAA
La Salle
#346
W
102-50
102
50
+52
H21/12
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
W
112-71
112
71
+41
H30/12
NCAA
USC
#153
W
96-66
96
66
+30
H03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
36-30
50-31
45-33
49-21
59-31
43-41
53-29
48-32
50-25
51-35
53-23
36-38
45-50
56-33
54-33
48-17
60-29
52-42
49-31
47-35
162.3Avg total
98.4Scored
63.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)96.766.5163.2+30.2100%
Season at home (10)98.764.6163.3+34.1100%
Season away (3)90.072.7162.7+17.3100%
Last 10 (10)98.463.9162.3+34.5100%
Last 5 (5)100.066.2166.2+33.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)67.274.7141.8-7.533%
vs Similar (10)77.069.9146.9+7.190%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)93.367.7161.0+25.6100%
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-24-12+0+12+241st half1st half: -1.4-1.41st half: +19.0+19.02nd half2nd half: -0.7-0.72nd half: +15.5+15.5
-24-12+0+12+241st half1st half: -1.4-1.41st half: +19.0+19.02nd half2nd half: -0.7-0.72nd half: +15.5+15.5
Penn StateMichigan
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Penn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Harvard
#133
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H19/11
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
31-32
31
32
-1
H22/11
NCAA
Boston University
#211
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H26/11
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
47-20
47
20
+27
H29/11
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H02/12
NCAA
Indiana
#145
L
26-58
26
58
-32
A10/12
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H13/12
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
20-40
20
40
-20
H21/12
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H29/12
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
26-40
26
40
-14
H04/01
NCAA
72.8Avg total
35.7Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.435.971.3-0.550%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.933.870.7+3.163%-
Last 30 away (11)32.839.572.4-6.727%-
Last 10 (10)35.737.172.8-1.450%-
Last 5 (5)29.441.470.8-12.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)36.436.072.4+0.450%-
vs Similar (11)35.837.973.7-2.136%-
vs Weaker (5)31.831.263.0+0.680%-
This opponent (Michigan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MichiganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H19/11
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H25/11
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
59-31
59
31
+28
A26/11
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
53-29
53
29
+24
H27/11
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
50-25
50
25
+25
H06/12
NCAA
Villanova
#46
W
53-23
53
23
+30
H09/12
NCAA
Maryland
#305
L
45-50
45
50
-5
A14/12
NCAA
La Salle
#346
W
54-33
54
33
+21
H21/12
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
W
60-29
60
29
+31
H30/12
NCAA
USC
#153
W
49-31
49
31
+18
H03/01
NCAA
81.8Avg total
50.4Scored
31.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.533.374.8+8.167%-
Last 30 at home (19)43.832.676.4+11.374%-
Last 30 away (11)37.434.672.0+2.755%-
Last 10 (10)50.431.481.8+19.090%-
Last 5 (5)52.233.285.4+19.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)32.734.767.3-2.050%-
vs Similar (10)36.731.868.5+4.960%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)48.633.982.5+14.879%-
This opponent (Penn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Penn State wins
4
Michigan wins
DateGameScore
27/01/25Michigan v Penn State76-72
14/03/24Penn State v Michigan66-57
07/01/24Penn State v Michigan79-73
29/01/23Penn State v Michigan83-61
05/01/23Michigan v Penn State79-69
09/02/22Penn State v Michigan57-58
13/12/20Michigan v Penn State62-58
23/01/20Michigan v Penn State63-72
Penn Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/01/26HIllinois65-73
29/12/25HN. Carolina Central90-67
21/12/25HPittsburgh46-80
13/12/25HMichigan State72-76
10/12/25AIndiana72-113
02/12/25HCampbell87-76
29/11/25HSacred Heart90-59
26/11/25HBoston University96-87
22/11/25HProvidence65-77
19/11/25HHarvard84-80
Michiganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26HUSC96-66
30/12/25HMcNeese State112-71
21/12/25HLa Salle102-50
14/12/25AMaryland101-83
09/12/25HVillanova89-61
06/12/25HRutgers101-60
27/11/25HGonzaga101-61
26/11/25AAuburn102-72
25/11/25HSan Diego State94-54
19/11/25HMiddle Tenn. St.86-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penn State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL64%
HomeWLLWL67%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14122
Win %64%67%50%
Points / game78.177.879.5
Allowed / game74.273.678.0
Point differential+3.9+4.2+1.5
Avg total152.3151.4157.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Michigan
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games13103
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game96.798.790.0
Allowed / game66.564.672.7
Point differential+30.2+34.1+17.3
Avg total163.2163.3162.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+85%90%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %8%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan13130100%96.766.5+30.2
2 Nebraska15150100%81.165.7+15.3
3 Purdue1413193%86.466.5+19.9
4 Michigan State1513287%79.164.4+14.7
5 Iowa1412286%80.760.1+20.6
6 USC1512380%85.377.0+8.3
7 Illinois1411379%87.168.2+18.9
8 Indiana1411379%85.167.1+18.0
9 Ohio State1410471%84.672.0+12.6
10 UCLA1410471%80.269.3+10.9
11 Washington149564%82.472.5+9.9
12 Wisconsin149564%82.774.3+8.4
13 Minnesota149564%73.565.7+7.8
14 Penn State149564%78.174.2+3.9
15 Northwestern148657%80.470.4+9.9
16 Oregon158753%77.773.3+4.3
17 Rutgers158753%70.372.5-2.3
18 Maryland147750%75.277.7-2.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Penn State314172
Michigan403474
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