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Pesaro vs Sebastiani Rieti Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 20 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#12
Record5-5
FormLLLLL
Points / game79.6
Allowed / game79.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
4.9/10
Around normal
Position#6
Record7-3
FormLWWWL
Points / game75.1
Allowed / game73.8
ItalySerie A2Round 16· Vitrifrigo Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Pesaro v Sebastiani Rieti
20 Dec 2026
PES v SEBA
upcoming
21 Dec 2025
PES91
SEBA73
09 Mar 2025
PES78
SEBA85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pesaro win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Sebastiani Rieti win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PesaroItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPesaro
Date
Competition
Cento
#18
W
96-81
96
81
+15
92avg 76
A27/09
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
87-84
87
84
+3
32avg 76
H04/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
W
83-77
83
77
+6
87avg 76
H11/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
86-76
86
76
+10
67avg 76
A18/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#13
W
76-68
76
68
+8
76avg 76
H21/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
L
71-73
71
73
-2
61avg 76
H25/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
70-79
70
79
-9
60avg 76
A01/11
Serie A2
Mestre
#11
L
73-85
73
85
-12
no box
H07/11
Serie A2
Sassari
#10
L
87-96 OT
87
96
-9
no box
A11/11
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
L
67-78
67
78
-11
no box
H15/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-14
25-25
20-19
20-23
24-23
21-18
15-26
27-17
23-24
23-15
16-21
21-17
13-15
27-31
22-17
24-13
22-21
20-18
13-15
21-14
15-20
21-20
18-19
17-14
19-21
18-27
13-16
20-15
22-22
18-30
19-12
14-21
25-21
15-22
19-19
20-17
23-24
22-14
13-27
9-13
159.3Avg total
79.6Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)79.679.7159.3-0.150%
Season at home (6)76.277.5153.7-1.350%
Season away (4)84.883.0167.8+1.850%
Last 10 (10)79.679.7159.3-0.150%
Last 5 (5)73.682.2155.8-8.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)70.079.0149.0-9.00%
vs Similar ◀ (21)82.285.0167.2-2.848%
vs Weaker (8)85.976.4162.2+9.5100%
This opponent (Sebastiani Rieti) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sebastiani RietiItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRieti
Date
Competition
Caserta
#15
W
81-73
81
73
+8
69avg 70
H27/09
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
W
79-64
79
64
+15
78avg 70
A04/10
Serie A2
Pistoia
#8
W
78-70
78
70
+8
72avg 70
H11/10
Serie A2
Forli
#9
L
71-93
71
93
-22
55avg 70
A18/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#5
W
70-63
70
63
+7
73avg 70
H21/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#4
L
73-96
73
96
-23
57avg 70
A25/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
73-65
73
65
+8
66avg 70
H01/11
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
68-63
68
63
+5
no box
A08/11
Serie A2
Montecatini
#20
W
80-62
80
62
+18
no box
H11/11
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
78-89
78
89
-11
no box
A15/11
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-18
17-19
19-21
18-15
24-15
26-17
16-15
13-17
24-23
21-15
12-12
21-20
11-25
33-30
15-13
12-25
18-17
18-20
13-15
21-11
25-32
14-28
14-10
20-26
21-16
15-23
14-7
23-19
17-10
11-17
24-15
16-21
23-13
12-13
23-19
22-17
14-29
20-22
18-19
26-19
148.9Avg total
75.1Scored
73.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)75.173.8148.9+1.370%
Season at home (5)76.466.6143.0+9.8100%
Season away (5)73.881.0154.8-7.240%
Last 10 (10)75.173.8148.9+1.370%
Last 5 (5)74.475.0149.4-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)76.582.3158.8-5.833%
vs Similar ◀ (15)75.976.2152.1-0.347%
vs Weaker (9)80.474.0154.4+6.489%
This opponent (Pesaro) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: +0.2+0.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: +0.2+0.2
PesaroSebastiani Rieti
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PesaroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cento
#18
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A27/09
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H04/10
Serie A2
Caserta
#15
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H11/10
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A18/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#13
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H21/10
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H25/10
Serie A2
Avellino Basket
#2
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A01/11
Serie A2
Mestre
#11
L
40-52
40
52
-12
H07/11
Serie A2
Sassari
#10
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A11/11
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H15/11
Serie A2
85.2Avg total
42.7Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.541.584.0+1.057%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.640.683.2+1.969%-
Last 30 away (14)42.442.484.9+0.043%-
Last 10 (10)42.742.585.2+0.250%-
Last 5 (5)39.644.283.8-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)37.048.085.0-11.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)42.242.484.6-0.248%-
vs Weaker (8)44.038.182.1+5.988%-
This opponent (Sebastiani Rieti) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sebastiani RietiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caserta
#15
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H27/09
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
W
50-32
50
32
+18
A04/10
Serie A2
Pistoia
#8
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H11/10
Serie A2
Forli
#9
L
44-55
44
55
-11
A18/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#5
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H21/10
Serie A2
Rimini
#4
L
39-60
39
60
-21
A25/10
Serie A2
JuVi Cremona
#16
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H01/11
Serie A2
Ruvo Di Puglia
#17
W
28-27
28
27
+1
A08/11
Serie A2
Montecatini
#20
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H11/11
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
34-51
34
51
-17
A15/11
Serie A2
79.3Avg total
39.1Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.539.778.2-1.240%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.538.678.1+0.953%-
Last 30 away (15)37.540.778.2-3.327%-
Last 10 (10)39.140.279.3-1.150%-
Last 5 (5)34.440.675.0-6.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)39.046.285.2-7.233%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)38.140.878.9-2.727%-
vs Weaker (9)38.833.472.2+5.367%-
This opponent (Pesaro) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pesarotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pesaro: 75.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.517.5
50.7%
51.2%35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.78.5
41.1%
34.5%25.5
🏀 Free throws19.114.8
77.5%
71.0%14.8
They take 55.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sebastiani Rietitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sebastiani Rieti: 75.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.4 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.715.2
49.5%
51.2%30.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.79.1
29.6%
34.5%27.3
🏀 Free throws25.517.7
69.4%
71.0%17.7
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pesaro
LLLLLWWWWW
Sebastiani Rieti
LWWWLWLWWW
#12
League position
#6
-1.4
Net rating
-1.7
105.1
Offensive rating
94.2
106.5
Defensive rating
95.9
54.8%
Effective FG%
47.0%
53.7%
Opp. effective FG%
50.9%
10.0%
Turnover %
10.9%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.42
41.1%
3-point %
29.6%
53.1%
Assist %
49.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence105.1 · 94.2Defence106.5 · 95.9Shooting54.8% · 47.0%3-point %41.1% · 29.6%Ball care10.0% · 10.9%Free throws0.35 · 0.42Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Pesaro   ■ Sebastiani Rieti
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pesaro wins
3
Sebastiani Rieti wins
Pesarolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HVigevano67-78
11/11/26ASassari87-96 OT
07/11/26HMestre73-85
01/11/26AAvellino Basket70-79
25/10/26HBasket Torino71-73
21/10/26HCividale76-68
18/10/26ARuvo Di Puglia86-76
11/10/26HCaserta83-77
04/10/26HJuVi Cremona87-84
27/09/26ACento96-81
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26AFortitudo Bologna78-89
11/11/26HMontecatini80-62
08/11/26ARuvo Di Puglia68-63
01/11/26HJuVi Cremona73-65
25/10/26ARimini73-96
21/10/26HBrindisi70-63
18/10/26AForli71-93
11/10/26HPistoia78-70
04/10/26AVigevano79-64
27/09/26HCaserta81-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pesaro
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL50%
HomeWWLLL50%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game79.676.284.8
Allowed / game79.777.583.0
Point differential-0.1-1.3+1.8
Avg total159.3153.7167.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %10%0%25%
Sebastiani Rieti
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL70%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %70%100%40%
Points / game75.176.473.8
Allowed / game73.866.681.0
Point differential+1.3+9.8-7.2
Avg total148.9143.0154.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%20%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Libertas Livorno109190%80.968.5+12.4
2 Avellino Basket109190%80.873.9+6.9
3 Fortitudo Bologna108280%80.474.7+5.7
4 Rimini107370%81.272.5+8.7
5 Brindisi107370%78.274.4+3.8
6 Sebastiani Rieti107370%75.173.8+1.3
7 Basket Torino96367%72.972.0+0.9
8 Pistoia106460%77.669.1+8.5
9 Forli105550%82.078.9+3.1
10 Sassari105550%76.275.6+0.6
11 Mestre105550%76.076.1-0.1
12 Pesaro105550%79.679.7-0.1
13 Cividale105550%72.575.5-3.0
14 Vigevano104640%76.580.3-3.8
15 Caserta93633%79.682.2-2.7
16 JuVi Cremona102820%75.178.6-3.5
17 Ruvo Di Puglia102820%74.080.9-6.9
18 Cento102820%73.482.5-9.1
19 Urania Milano101910%74.682.7-8.1
20 Montecatini101910%67.181.9-14.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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