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Portugal vs Ukraine Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 26 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#37
Record4-4
FormLLWWL
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game79.5
vs
Position#22
Record9-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game75.9
EuropeWorld CupRound 3
Other2027
Meetings · Portugal v Ukraine
26 Nov 2026
PORT v UKRA
upcoming
24 Feb 2025
PORT60
UKRA88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Portugal win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Ukraine win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Estonia
#18
W
68-65
68
65
+3
A03/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
58-85
58
85
-27
A06/09
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#51
W
83-62
83
62
+21
A27/11
World Cup
Greece
#39
L
68-76
68
76
-8
H30/11
World Cup
Romania
#34
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H27/02
World Cup
Romania
#34
L
96-101
96
101
-5
A02/03
World Cup
Montenegro
#51
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H02/07
World Cup
Greece
#39
W
71-56
71
56
+15
A05/07
World Cup
Spain
#27
W
95-89
95
89
+6
A28/08
World Cup
Georgia
#31
L
90-98
90
98
-8
H31/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-14
13-18
20-13
21-20
12-17
20-14
19-21
7-33
14-21
25-11
25-11
19-19
17-24
19-13
13-19
19-20
25-12
29-34
21-15
24-21
22-27
31-23
20-26
23-25
13-23
8-13
20-13
27-23
19-15
9-8
25-19
18-14
21-14
26-27
24-30
24-18
24-16
18-25
24-29
24-28
158.2Avg total
79.6Scored
78.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)83.879.5163.2+4.250%
Season at home (4)81.282.0163.2-0.825%
Season away (4)86.277.0163.2+9.275%
Last 10 (10)79.678.6158.2+1.050%
Last 5 (5)84.083.2167.2+0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)64.481.3145.8-16.922%
vs Similar ◀ (11)82.481.3163.6+1.136%
vs Weaker (10)76.467.4143.8+9.070%
This opponent (Ukraine) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UkraineLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Switzerland
#43
W
73-64
73
64
+9
H16/08
World Cup
Slovakia
#69
W
98-86
98
86
+12
A20/08
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
92-79
92
79
+13
A27/11
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
88-71
88
71
+17
H30/11
World Cup
Spain
#27
L
66-86
66
86
-20
H27/02
World Cup
Spain
#27
L
64-78
64
78
-14
A02/03
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
95-76
95
76
+19
H02/07
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
99-69
99
69
+30
A05/07
World Cup
Greece
#39
W
82-76
82
76
+6
H28/08
World Cup
Montenegro
#51
W
98-89
98
89
+9
A31/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-12
13-19
21-24
11-9
17-20
32-20
20-27
29-19
15-23
28-25
23-13
26-18
18-20
28-16
27-10
15-25
21-17
12-15
14-33
19-21
9-16
12-12
22-24
21-26
30-27
19-14
26-19
20-16
22-25
31-12
24-19
22-13
24-19
16-18
24-22
18-17
19-18
27-22
26-22
26-27
162.9Avg total
85.5Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)83.275.9159.2+7.375%
Season at home (6)80.774.0154.7+6.783%
Season away (6)85.877.8163.7+8.067%
Last 10 (10)85.577.4162.9+8.180%
Last 5 (5)87.677.6165.2+10.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)73.481.0154.4-7.612%
vs Similar ◀ (7)82.786.7169.4-4.029%
vs Weaker (15)85.873.9159.7+11.987%
This opponent (Portugal) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +1.6+1.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: +4.5+4.5Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +1.6+1.6
PortugalUkraine
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PortugalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Estonia
#18
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A03/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A06/09
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#51
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A27/11
World Cup
Greece
#39
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H30/11
World Cup
Romania
#34
W
54-46
54
46
+8
H27/02
World Cup
Romania
#34
W
53-50
53
50
+3
A02/03
World Cup
Montenegro
#51
L
21-36
21
36
-15
H02/07
World Cup
Greece
#39
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A05/07
World Cup
Spain
#27
W
47-41
47
41
+6
A28/08
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H31/08
World Cup
74.8Avg total
37.9Scored
36.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.338.877.1-0.553%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.440.579.9-1.143%-
Last 30 away (16)37.337.474.7-0.162%-
Last 10 (10)37.936.974.8+1.070%-
Last 5 (5)38.238.276.4+0.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)32.440.472.9-8.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)42.140.582.5+1.655%-
vs Weaker (10)39.435.675.0+3.870%-
This opponent (Ukraine) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UkraineLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Switzerland
#43
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H16/08
World Cup
Slovakia
#69
W
49-40
49
40
+9
A20/08
World Cup
Georgia
#31
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A27/11
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H30/11
World Cup
Spain
#27
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H27/02
World Cup
Spain
#27
L
21-28
21
28
-7
A02/03
World Cup
Georgia
#31
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H02/07
World Cup
Denmark
#79
W
53-37
53
37
+16
A05/07
World Cup
Greece
#39
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H28/08
World Cup
Montenegro
#51
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A31/08
World Cup
79.1Avg total
42.1Scored
37.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.737.177.8+3.670%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.937.177.0+2.780%-
Last 30 away (15)41.637.178.7+4.560%-
Last 10 (10)42.137.079.1+5.180%-
Last 5 (5)41.836.678.4+5.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)35.036.071.0-1.062%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)41.438.980.3+2.657%-
vs Weaker (15)43.536.980.3+6.680%-
This opponent (Portugal) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Portugaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Portugal: 66.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 17% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.216.7
43.7%
-33.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.87.3
25.3%
-21.9
🏀 Free throws16.111.0
68.3%
-11.0
They take 67.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Ukrainetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ukraine: 75.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.7 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.319.3
54.7%
-38.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.07.7
36.5%
-23.0
🏀 Free throws20.013.5
67.5%
-13.5
They take 56.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/6 games with a box score before 26 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Portugal
LWWLLWLWLW
Ukraine
WWWWLLWWWW
#37
League position
#22
-15.3
Net rating
-6.3
89.8
Offensive rating
104.6
105.1
Defensive rating
110.8
41.3%
Effective FG%
54.7%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
19.3%
Turnover %
21.7%
32.4%
Off. rebound %
28.0%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.36
25.3%
3-point %
36.5%
67.9%
Assist %
75.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Portugal   ■ Ukraine
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Portugal wins
1
Ukraine wins
DateGameScore
24/02/25Portugal v Ukraine60-88
25/02/24Ukraine v Portugal77-79
Portugallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/08/26HGeorgia90-98
28/08/26ASpain95-89
05/07/26AGreece71-56
02/07/26HMontenegro68-72
02/03/26ARomania96-101
27/02/26HRomania99-82
30/11/25HGreece68-76
27/11/25AMontenegro83-62
06/09/25AGermany58-85
03/09/25AEstonia68-65
Ukrainelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/08/26AMontenegro98-89
28/08/26HGreece82-76
05/07/26ADenmark99-69
02/07/26HGeorgia95-76
02/03/26ASpain64-78
27/02/26HSpain66-86
30/11/25HDenmark88-71
27/11/25AGeorgia92-79
20/08/25ASlovakia98-86
16/08/25HSwitzerland73-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Portugal
World Cup 2027
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL50%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %50%25%75%
Points / game83.881.286.2
Allowed / game79.582.077.0
Point differential+4.2-0.8+9.2
Avg total163.2163.2163.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%25%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ukraine
World Cup 2027
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW75%
HomeWWLWW83%
AwayWWLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %75%83%67%
Points / game83.280.785.8
Allowed / game75.974.077.8
Point differential+7.3+6.7+8.0
Avg total159.2154.7163.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia880100%101.870.0+31.8
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada880100%100.981.1+19.8
4 Turkey880100%91.972.6+19.2
5 Croatia1211192%99.273.5+25.8
6 France87188%85.171.6+13.5
7 Poland87188%95.882.2+13.5
8 Germany87188%93.682.1+11.5
9 Dominican Republic65183%93.377.8+15.5
10 Mexico65183%93.781.8+11.8
11 Senegal97278%86.370.6+15.8
12 South Sudan97278%82.068.6+13.4
13 Ivory Coast97278%88.276.1+12.1
14 Cameroon97278%76.471.6+4.9
15 New Zealand86275%97.279.8+17.5
16 Japan86275%91.074.8+16.2
17 Argentina86275%87.271.5+15.8
18 Lebanon86275%89.674.6+15.0
19 Brazil86275%90.878.1+12.6
20 Uruguay86275%84.473.4+11.0
21 Serbia86275%87.178.1+9.0
22 Ukraine129375%83.275.9+7.3
23 Angola96367%86.873.0+13.8
24 Guinea96367%75.266.1+9.1
25 Mali96367%81.478.0+3.4
26 Jordan85362%85.571.0+14.5
27 Spain85362%90.178.8+11.4
28 Iran85362%74.967.8+7.1
29 Italy85362%83.076.9+6.1
30 China85362%84.581.6+2.9
31 Georgia85362%85.582.6+2.9
32 Finland85362%80.679.2+1.4
33 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
34 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
35 Nigeria95456%79.976.9+3.0
36 Tunisia95456%71.769.9+1.8
37 Portugal84450%83.879.5+4.2
38 Hungary126650%80.977.9+3.0
39 Greece84450%77.174.5+2.6
40 Latvia84450%83.481.2+2.1
41 Lithuania84450%85.984.6+1.2
42 Bahamas84450%93.292.1+1.1
43 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
44 Slovenia84450%84.083.8+0.2
45 Philippines84450%76.976.8+0.1
46 South Korea84450%78.479.1-0.8
47 Sweden84450%81.183.5-2.4
48 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
49 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
50 Qatar84450%75.981.5-5.6
51 Montenegro84450%71.879.1-7.4
52 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
53 Egypt94544%75.973.1+2.8
54 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
55 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
56 Netherlands125742%82.181.1+1.0
57 Bosnia & Herzegovina83538%78.177.1+1.0
58 Estonia83538%80.483.0-2.6
59 Saudi Arabia83538%76.479.6-3.2
60 Iceland83538%81.293.8-12.5
61 Cape Verde93633%75.681.3-5.8
62 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
63 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
64 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
65 D.R. Congo93633%68.885.7-16.9
66 Chile72529%71.380.6-9.3
67 Israel82625%79.283.5-4.2
68 Puerto Rico82625%85.990.2-4.4
69 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
70 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
73 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
74 Panama82625%75.488.9-13.5
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Syria82625%66.889.9-23.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.
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