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Saga vs Akita Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 07:05
Final 65-66
15-24 21-11 11-14 18-17
Position#15
Record4-5
FormLLWWW
Points / game72.1
Allowed / game74.8
vs
Akita 🏆
Japan
Position#14
Record2-7
FormWLLLL
Points / game71.8
Allowed / game80.0
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2023-24
Meetings · Saga v Akita
05 Nov 2023
SAGA70
AKIT64
04 Nov 2023
SAGA65
AKIT66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Akita winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Ryukyu
#5
L
63-80
63
80
-17
51avg 63
H05/10
B League
Ryukyu
#5
L
79-80 OT
79
80
-1
no box
H07/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
69-93
69
93
-24
57avg 63
H14/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
W
72-71 OT
72
71
+1
no box
H15/10
B League
Shimane
#12
L
74-87
74
87
-13
71avg 63
A21/10
B League
Shimane
#12
L
58-61
58
61
-3
47avg 63
A22/10
B League
Shinshu
#23
W
80-74
80
74
+6
71avg 63
H25/10
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#7
W
80-59
80
59
+21
76avg 63
A28/10
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#7
W
74-68
74
68
+6
70avg 63
A29/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-18
17-26
16-17
14-19
19-18
21-17
16-19
15-17
15-28
19-29
24-19
11-17
16-12
17-23
12-13
19-16
18-25
24-15
13-25
19-22
21-14
6-15
11-18
20-14
20-21
21-15
21-21
18-17
19-16
20-18
18-8
23-17
19-14
19-18
12-18
24-18
146.9Avg total
72.1Scored
74.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)72.174.8146.9-2.744%
Season at home (5)72.679.6152.2-7.040%
Season away (4)71.568.8140.2+2.850%
Last 10 (9)72.174.8146.9-2.744%
Last 5 (5)73.269.8143.0+3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)70.582.0152.5-11.550%
vs Similar ◀ (6)71.372.5143.8-1.233%
vs Weaker (1)80.074.0154.0+6.0100%
This opponent (Akita) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AkitaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAkita
Date
Competition
Hokkaido
#21
W
102-92
102
92
+10
no box
H07/05
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
69-59
69
59
+10
68avg 61
A07/10
B League
Hokkaido
#20
L
70-79
70
79
-9
60avg 61
A08/10
B League
Shimane
#12
L
87-93 OT
87
93
-6
no box
H14/10
B League
Shimane
#12
L
65-85
65
85
-20
57avg 61
H15/10
B League
Kyoto
#21
W
81-80
81
80
+1
72avg 61
H21/10
B League
Kyoto
#21
L
70-88
70
88
-18
57avg 61
H22/10
B League
Alvark
#2
L
51-67
51
67
-16
42avg 61
A25/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
74-88
74
88
-14
65avg 61
H28/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
79-81
79
81
-2
68avg 61
H29/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-16
29-25
27-20
22-31
23-11
18-13
8-15
20-20
24-13
15-19
19-22
12-25
28-14
14-26
17-24
24-19
24-23
17-21
11-15
13-26
30-15
14-19
16-19
21-27
21-27
11-19
19-24
19-18
15-18
14-10
8-16
14-23
19-14
18-29
18-24
19-21
26-20
17-25
16-18
20-18
156.0Avg total
74.8Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)71.880.0151.8-8.222%
Season at home (6)76.085.8161.8-9.817%
Season away (3)63.368.3131.7-5.033%
Last 10 (10)74.881.2156.0-6.430%
Last 5 (5)71.080.8151.8-9.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)67.577.7145.2-10.20%
vs Similar ◀ (15)76.081.9157.9-5.927%
vs Weaker (9)80.478.1158.6+2.367%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +6.3+6.3Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -4.4-4.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +6.3+6.3Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -4.4-4.4
SagaAkita
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ryukyu
#5
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H05/10
B League
Ryukyu
#5
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H07/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
34-57
34
57
-23
H14/10
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H15/10
B League
Shimane
#12
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A21/10
B League
Shimane
#12
L
27-29
27
29
-2
A22/10
B League
Shinshu
#23
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H25/10
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#7
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A28/10
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#7
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A29/10
B League
74.3Avg total
36.3Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (9)36.338.074.3-1.756%-
Last 30 at home (5)36.241.477.6-5.240%-
Last 30 away (4)36.533.870.2+2.875%-
Last 10 (9)36.338.074.3-1.756%-
Last 5 (5)37.434.271.6+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)33.546.079.5-12.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)36.535.772.2+0.867%-
vs Weaker (1)41.036.077.0+5.0100%-
This opponent (Akita) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AkitaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hokkaido
#21
W
53-41
53
41
+12
H07/05
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
41-24
41
24
+17
A07/10
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A08/10
B League
Shimane
#12
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H14/10
B League
Shimane
#12
L
41-44
41
44
-3
H15/10
B League
Kyoto
#21
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H21/10
B League
Kyoto
#21
L
32-46
32
46
-14
H22/10
B League
Alvark
#2
W
29-28
29
28
+1
A25/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H28/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H29/10
B League
77.8Avg total
40.1Scored
37.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.837.875.6+0.047%-
Last 30 at home (18)38.838.277.0+0.644%-
Last 30 away (12)36.337.173.4-0.850%-
Last 10 (10)40.137.777.8+2.460%-
Last 5 (5)37.039.276.2-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)35.037.872.8-2.833%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)37.138.075.1-0.940%-
vs Weaker (9)40.837.378.1+3.467%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 70.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.617.7
45.9%
50.9%35.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.66.7
29.7%
33.5%20.1
🏀 Free throws20.614.4
70.1%
72.0%14.4
They take 61.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Akitatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Akita: 69.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.8 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.615.5
44.8%
50.9%31.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.49.2
32.6%
33.5%27.8
🏀 Free throws14.510.4
71.6%
72.0%10.4
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 7/8 games with a box score before 04 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
WWWLLWLLL
Akita
LLLLWLLLWW
#15
League position
#14
-5.3
Net rating
-11.0
99.7
Offensive rating
95.1
105.0
Defensive rating
106.1
45.4%
Effective FG%
46.6%
48.3%
Opp. effective FG%
47.3%
16.9%
Turnover %
19.2%
30.0%
Off. rebound %
27.8%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.23
29.7%
3-point %
32.6%
58.5%
Assist %
67.2%
44%
Form (last 9/10)
30%

Profile

Offence99.7 · 95.1Defence105.0 · 106.1Shooting45.4% · 46.6%3-point %29.7% · 32.6%Ball care16.9% · 19.2%Off. rebounds30.0% · 27.8%Free throws0.34 · 0.23Form (last 9/10)44% · 30%
■ Saga   ■ Akita
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Saga wins
0
Akita wins
No previous meetings.
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/23ASun Rockers Shibuya74-68
28/10/23ASun Rockers Shibuya80-59
25/10/23HShinshu80-74
22/10/23AShimane58-61
21/10/23AShimane74-87
15/10/23HHiroshima D.72-71 OT
14/10/23HHiroshima D.69-93
07/10/23HRyukyu79-80 OT
05/10/23HRyukyu63-80
Akitalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/23HNeoPhoenix79-81
28/10/23HNeoPhoenix74-88
25/10/23AAlvark51-67
22/10/23HKyoto70-88
21/10/23HKyoto81-80
15/10/23HShimane65-85
14/10/23HShimane87-93 OT
08/10/23AHokkaido70-79
07/10/23AHokkaido69-59
07/05/23HHokkaido102-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Losses (last 9)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW44%
HomeLLLWW40%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %44%40%50%
Points / game72.172.671.5
Allowed / game74.879.668.8
Point differential-2.7-7.0+2.8
Avg total146.9152.2140.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %22%40%0%
Akita
B League 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL22%
HomeLWLLL17%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %22%17%33%
Points / game71.876.063.3
Allowed / game80.085.868.3
Point differential-8.2-9.8-5.0
Avg total151.8161.8131.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %11%17%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alvark1110191%81.161.6+19.5
2 NeoPhoenix109190%88.177.6+10.5
3 Osaka109190%87.577.0+10.5
4 Brave Thunders108280%81.275.3+5.9
5 Nagasaki108280%87.782.1+5.6
6 Ryukyu107370%80.276.1+4.1
7 Utsunomiya Brex107370%76.972.8+4.1
8 Diamond Dolphins107370%81.577.6+3.9
9 Shimane107370%79.875.9+3.9
10 SeaHorses Mikawa95456%82.674.8+7.8
11 Chiba95456%84.083.9+0.1
12 Nagoya Fighting Eagles105550%72.774.5-1.8
13 Gunma105550%76.080.8-4.8
14 Sendai94544%80.282.7-2.4
15 Saga94544%72.174.8-2.7
16 Yokohama94544%77.080.7-3.7
17 Hiroshima D.104640%78.174.3+3.8
18 Shinshu103730%79.184.9-5.8
19 Akita92722%71.880.0-8.2
20 Hokkaido102820%74.581.9-7.4
21 Sun Rockers Shibuya112918%74.381.8-7.5
22 Kyoto101910%72.083.6-11.6
23 Ibaraki Robots100100%78.087.2-9.2
24 Toyama100100%70.787.3-16.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga1521111865
Akita2411141766
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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