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Siena vs Merrimack Warriors Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 05 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Scheduled
Position#133
Record3-1
FormLLWWW
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game77.8
vs
Position#235
Record2-2
FormLWLWL
Points / game62.8
Allowed / game65.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Siena v Merrimack Warriors
04 Dec 2026
SIE v MERR
upcoming
09 Jan 2026
SIE59
MERR63
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Siena win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Merrimack Warriors win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SienaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairfield
#105
L
58-72
58
72
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H01/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
W
63-58
63
58
+5
H08/03
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H09/03
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
65-71
65
71
-6
A19/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#340
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A03/11
NCAA
Princeton
#132
W
82-68
82
68
+14
H08/11
NCAA
Dayton
#307
W
99-89
99
89
+10
A11/11
NCAA
Brown
#334
W
79-74
79
74
+5
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
23-37
35-35
33-35
43-26
35-21
28-37
40-30
36-31
33-30
31-24
43-32
22-39
41-37
34-43
39-29
43-39
46-45
53-44
34-44
45-30
142.5Avg total
73.7Scored
68.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)83.877.8161.5+6.075%
Season at home (2)80.571.0151.5+9.5100%
Season away (2)87.084.5171.5+2.550%
Last 10 (10)73.768.8142.5+4.970%
Last 5 (5)80.076.4156.4+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)65.071.0136.0-6.00%
vs Similar (16)69.469.1138.5+0.450%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)77.266.9144.2+10.385%
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
88-86 OT
88
86
+2
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
70-48
70
48
+22
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
54-64
54
64
-10
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#206
W
63-49
63
49
+14
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#107
L
61-71
61
71
-10
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#234
W
73-60
73
60
+13
A08/11
NCAA
Florida
#52
L
54-83
54
83
-29
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-33
32-35
32-29
30-38
30-28
43-38
39-25
31-23
30-28
28-29
30-33
24-31
43-21
20-28
26-38
35-33
30-26
43-34
26-43
28-40
130.7Avg total
65.6Scored
65.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)62.865.8128.5-3.050%
Season at home (2)62.060.0122.0+2.050%
Season away (2)63.571.5135.0-8.050%
Last 10 (10)65.665.1130.7+0.560%
Last 5 (5)61.065.4126.4-4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)59.367.7127.0-8.333%
vs Similar (18)69.562.9132.4+6.678%
vs Weaker (9)70.762.6133.2+8.189%
This opponent (Siena) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +2.7+2.71st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: -1.5-1.5
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +2.7+2.71st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: -1.5-1.5
SienaMerrimack Warriors
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SienaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairfield
#105
L
23-37
23
37
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Rider
#367
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H01/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
W
35-21
35
21
+14
H08/03
NCAA
Fairfield
#105
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H09/03
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A11/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
43-32
43
32
+11
A19/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#340
W
41-37
41
37
+4
A03/11
NCAA
Princeton
#132
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H08/11
NCAA
Dayton
#307
W
46-45
46
45
+1
A11/11
NCAA
Brown
#334
L
34-44
34
44
-10
H15/11
NCAA
70.7Avg total
36.7Scored
34.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.533.769.2+1.860%-
Last 30 at home (14)35.932.568.4+3.450%-
Last 30 away (16)35.234.869.9+0.469%-
Last 10 (10)36.734.070.7+2.770%-
Last 5 (5)40.637.478.0+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)43.032.075.0+11.0100%-
vs Similar (16)32.235.167.3-2.844%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)39.032.271.2+6.877%-
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iona
#152
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
30-28
30
28
+2
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#206
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#107
L
26-38
26
38
-12
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#234
W
30-26
30
26
+4
A08/11
NCAA
Florida
#52
L
26-43
26
43
-17
A14/11
NCAA
62.6Avg total
32.2Scored
30.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.829.763.5+4.073%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.829.565.3+6.380%-
Last 30 away (15)31.730.061.7+1.767%-
Last 10 (10)32.230.462.6+1.870%-
Last 5 (5)31.032.263.2-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)31.734.065.7-2.333%-
vs Similar (18)33.328.962.2+4.472%-
vs Weaker (9)35.330.065.3+5.389%-
This opponent (Siena) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Siena wins
3
Merrimack Warriors wins
Sienalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HBrown79-74
11/11/26ADayton99-89
08/11/26HPrinceton82-68
03/11/26ABryant University75-80
19/03/26ADuke65-71
11/03/26AMerrimack Warriors64-54
09/03/26HFairfield76-61
08/03/26HMount St. Mary's63-58
01/03/26HRider76-61
28/02/26AFairfield58-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AFlorida54-83
08/11/26AAlbany Great Danes73-60
06/11/26HUMass Lowell61-71
02/11/26HAppalachian State63-49
11/03/26HSiena54-64
08/03/26HMarist58-57
06/03/26HSacred Heart70-48
01/03/26ANiagara73-66
28/02/26ACanisius62-67
22/02/26HIona88-86 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Siena
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game83.880.587.0
Allowed / game77.871.084.5
Point differential+6.0+9.5+2.5
Avg total161.5151.5171.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Merrimack Warriors
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeWL50%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game62.862.063.5
Allowed / game65.860.071.5
Point differential-3.0+2.0-8.0
Avg total128.5122.0135.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena43175%83.877.8+6.0
2 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
3 Merrimack Warriors42250%62.865.8-3.0
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Fairfield42250%60.071.8-11.8
6 Iona52340%64.869.6-4.8
7 Quinnipiac52340%68.274.8-6.6
8 Mount St. Mary's31233%60.778.7-18.0
9 Marist41325%67.869.2-1.5
10 Manhattan41325%63.873.8-10.0
11 Rider51420%64.077.6-13.6
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara4040%58.579.5-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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