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Slovenia vs Poland Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 28 Aug 2025
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 95-105
25-29 21-18 23-33 26-25
Position#8
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Slovenia
vs
Poland 🏆
Position#9
Record-
FormLLWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeEuroBasketRound 1· Spodek
Other2025
Meetings · Slovenia v Poland
28 Aug 2025
SLOV95
POLA105
14 Sep 2022
SLOV87
POLA90
01 Jul 2021
SLOV112
POLA77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Slovenia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Poland winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SloveniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSlovenia
Date
Competition
Germany
#2
L
71-100
71
100
-29
no box
A03/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
L
89-100
89
100
-11
no box
A06/09
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
L
84-100
84
100
-16
no box
A07/09
World Cup
Italy
#17
W
89-85
89
85
+4
no box
A09/09
World Cup
Ukraine
#36
W
87-73
87
73
+14
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
W
88-79
88
79
+9
no box
H25/02
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
L
74-82
74
82
-8
68avg 74
A22/11
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
W
83-82
83
82
+1
76avg 74
H25/11
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#36
W
84-71
84
71
+13
84avg 74
A21/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
L
74-84
74
84
-10
69avg 74
A24/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-11
9-27
18-30
19-32
24-26
26-24
21-30
18-20
21-33
22-20
20-22
21-25
15-18
27-23
28-19
19-25
21-22
18-18
25-13
23-20
8-20
32-17
25-16
23-26
10-22
14-27
24-15
26-18
24-17
20-32
22-19
17-14
24-22
21-14
21-19
18-16
15-11
16-25
28-25
15-23
167.9Avg total
82.3Scored
85.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.385.6167.9-3.350%
Last 5 (5)80.679.6160.2+1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.290.8172.0-9.733%
vs Similar ◀ (16)85.180.8165.9+4.369%
vs Weaker (8)91.578.8170.2+12.875%
This opponent (Poland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPoland
Date
Competition
Switzerland
#31
W
79-64
79
64
+15
no box
H10/11
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
W
87-79
87
79
+8
no box
A13/11
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
87-72
87
72
+15
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
W
80-70
80
70
+10
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
64-83
64
83
-19
no box
A22/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
71-96
71
96
-25
no box
H26/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
78-82
78
82
-4
72avg 70
H21/11
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
88-86
88
86
+2
79avg 70
A24/11
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
48-82
48
82
-34
33avg 70
H21/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
74-88
74
88
-14
67avg 70
A24/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-15
15-22
27-8
20-19
21-18
13-19
24-19
29-23
26-21
31-17
14-19
16-15
21-27
14-15
23-16
22-12
19-16
11-19
19-27
15-21
16-25
22-22
12-22
21-27
18-19
22-19
13-19
25-25
22-25
18-17
22-21
26-23
18-15
14-22
10-25
6-20
19-26
20-19
16-22
19-21
155.8Avg total
75.6Scored
80.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.680.2155.8-4.650%
Last 5 (5)71.886.8158.6-15.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)74.386.4160.7-12.128%
vs Similar ◀ (8)80.873.5154.2+7.275%
vs Weaker (4)74.869.0143.8+5.875%
This opponent (Slovenia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -0.7-0.7
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -0.7-0.7
SloveniaPoland
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SloveniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Germany
#2
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A03/09
World Cup
Canada
#4
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A06/09
World Cup
Lithuania
#9
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A07/09
World Cup
Italy
#17
W
42-41
42
41
+1
A09/09
World Cup
Ukraine
#36
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H22/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H25/02
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
L
24-49
24
49
-25
A22/11
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
L
44-49
44
49
-5
H25/11
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#36
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A21/02
EuroBasket
Israel
#5
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A24/02
EuroBasket
82.1Avg total
39.2Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.841.484.2+1.460%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.343.588.7+1.867%-
Last 30 away (15)40.439.379.7+1.153%-
Last 10 (10)39.242.982.1-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)36.841.478.2-4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)41.341.382.7+0.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)41.642.484.0-0.962%-
vs Weaker (8)46.539.485.9+7.175%-
This opponent (Poland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Switzerland
#31
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H10/11
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A13/11
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
57-38
57
38
+19
H23/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A26/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A22/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H26/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H21/11
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A24/11
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A24/02
EuroBasket
77.5Avg total
37.7Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.939.676.5-2.727%-
Last 30 at home (13)37.436.974.3+0.546%-
Last 30 away (17)36.541.778.2-5.212%-
Last 10 (10)37.739.877.5-2.120%-
Last 5 (5)37.841.879.6-4.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)36.340.676.9-4.222%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)38.137.475.5+0.838%-
vs Weaker (4)37.040.077.0-3.025%-
This opponent (Slovenia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sloveniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Slovenia: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀28%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.7 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.8 pts a game · 28% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.515.8
48.7%
52.4%31.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.88.8
31.7%
33.4%26.5
🏀 Free throws29.322.8
77.8%
73.1%22.8
They take 60.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Polandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Poland: 74.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.416.0
51.0%
52.4%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.88.3
31.0%
33.4%24.9
🏀 Free throws23.217.7
76.3%
73.1%17.7
They take 58.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 6/10 games with a box score before 28 Aug 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Slovenia
LWWLWWWLLL
Poland
LLWLLLWWWW
#8
League position
#9
+4.5
Net rating
-6.9
105.1
Offensive rating
103.1
100.6
Defensive rating
110.0
48.2%
Effective FG%
48.9%
48.2%
Opp. effective FG%
53.8%
20.5%
Turnover %
18.8%
33.2%
Off. rebound %
27.5%
0.49
Free-throw rate
0.40
31.7%
3-point %
31.0%
81.8%
Assist %
67.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.1 · 103.1Defence100.6 · 110.0Shooting48.2% · 48.9%3-point %31.7% · 31.0%Ball care20.5% · 18.8%Off. rebounds33.2% · 27.5%Free throws0.49 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Slovenia   ■ Poland
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Slovenia wins
1
Poland wins
DateGameScore
14/09/22Slovenia v Poland87-90
01/07/21Slovenia v Poland112-77
Slovenialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/02/25AIsrael74-84
21/02/25AUkraine84-71
25/11/24HPortugal83-82
22/11/24APortugal74-82
25/02/24HIsrael88-79
22/02/24HUkraine87-73
09/09/23AItaly89-85
07/09/23ALithuania84-100
06/09/23ACanada89-100
03/09/23AGermany71-100
Polandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/02/25ANorth Macedonia74-88
21/02/25HLithuania48-82
24/11/24AEstonia88-86
21/11/24HEstonia78-82
26/02/24HNorth Macedonia71-96
22/02/24ALithuania64-83
26/02/23ASwitzerland80-70
23/02/23HAustria87-72
13/11/22ACroatia87-79
10/11/22HSwitzerland79-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Slovenia
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Poland
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia110100%98.064.0+34.0
2 Germany110100%106.076.0+30.0
3 France110100%92.064.0+28.0
4 Bosnia & Herzegovina110100%91.064.0+27.0
5 Lithuania110100%94.070.0+24.0
6 Turkey110100%93.073.0+20.0
7 Georgia110100%83.069.0+14.0
8 Israel110100%83.071.0+12.0
9 Portugal110100%62.050.0+12.0
10 Finland110100%93.090.0+3.0
11 Sweden1010%90.093.0-3.0
12 Czech Republic1010%50.062.0-12.0
13 Iceland1010%71.083.0-12.0
14 Spain1010%69.083.0-14.0
15 Latvia1010%73.093.0-20.0
16 Great Britain1010%70.094.0-24.0
17 Cyprus1010%64.091.0-27.0
18 Belgium1010%64.092.0-28.0
19 Montenegro1010%76.0106.0-30.0
20 Estonia1010%64.098.0-34.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Slovenia2521232695
Poland29183325105
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