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SMU Mustangs vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 22 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 100-69
50-30 50-39
Position#129
Record5-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game92.0
Allowed / game74.0
vs
Position#98
Record3-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game81.4
Allowed / game82.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#177
L
69-76
69
76
-7
A08/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
73-53
73
53
+20
H13/03
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
54-57
54
57
-3
A14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#24
W
73-63
73
63
+10
H20/03
NIT
Oklahoma State
#7
L
83-85
83
85
-2
H23/03
NIT
Tarleton
#255
W
96-76
96
76
+20
H04/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
69-58
69
58
+11
H07/11
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
102-91
102
91
+11
H12/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
87-85
87
85
+2
H15/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
106-60
106
60
+46
H19/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
32-33
0-0
37-43
0-0
31-28
0-0
42-25
0-0
27-28
0-0
27-29
0-0
33-32
0-0
40-31
0-0
41-40
0-0
42-45
0-0
48-38
0-0
48-38
0-0
32-28
0-0
37-30
0-0
49-42
0-0
53-49
0-0
38-43
0-0
49-42
0-0
45-26
0-0
61-34
151.6Avg total
81.2Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)92.074.0166.0+18.0100%
Season at home (5)92.074.0166.0+18.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.270.4151.6+10.870%
Last 5 (5)92.074.0166.0+18.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)62.089.0151.0-27.00%
vs Similar ◀ (8)75.076.6151.6-1.638%
vs Weaker (20)83.270.2153.4+13.085%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H08/03
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
W
74-71
74
71
+3
A09/03
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
81-94
81
94
-13
A10/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#31
W
103-78
103
78
+25
H19/03
NIT
North Texas
#3
L
63-65
63
65
-2
A23/03
NIT
Ohio
#241
W
89-85
89
85
+4
A04/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
65-90
65
90
-25
A08/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
95-67
95
67
+28
H16/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
72-85
72
85
-13
A20/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
39-36
0-0
38-38
0-0
37-34
0-0
37-37
0-0
43-41
0-0
38-53
0-0
50-37
0-0
53-41
0-0
33-34
0-0
30-31
0-0
32-39
0-0
57-46
0-0
31-46
0-0
34-44
0-0
33-46
0-0
53-39
0-0
45-28
0-0
50-39
0-0
39-47
0-0
33-38
159.9Avg total
80.5Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)81.482.4163.8-1.060%
Season at home (1)95.067.0162.0+28.0100%
Season away (4)78.086.2164.2-8.250%
Last 10 (10)80.579.4159.9+1.160%
Last 5 (5)81.482.4163.8-1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)68.587.5156.0-19.00%
vs Similar ◀ (8)75.076.9151.9-1.938%
vs Weaker (18)82.068.4150.4+13.683%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +3.8+3.81st half: -0.6-0.62nd half2nd half: +7.0+7.02nd half: +1.7+1.7
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +3.8+3.81st half: -0.6-0.62nd half2nd half: +7.0+7.02nd half: +1.7+1.7
SMU MustangsArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida State
#177
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A08/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#273
W
31-28
31
28
+3
H13/03
NCAA
Clemson
#22
L
27-28
27
28
-1
A14/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#24
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H20/03
NIT
Oklahoma State
#7
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H23/03
NIT
Tarleton
#255
W
48-38
48
38
+10
H04/11
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H07/11
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H12/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H15/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H19/11
NCAA
71.4Avg total
37.6Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.133.671.7+4.663%-
Last 30 at home (19)38.334.572.8+3.768%-
Last 30 away (11)37.931.969.8+6.055%-
Last 10 (10)37.633.871.4+3.870%-
Last 5 (5)42.435.477.8+7.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)32.041.073.0-9.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)34.436.270.6-1.950%-
vs Weaker (20)40.232.272.4+8.070%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H08/03
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A09/03
NCAA
Troy
#68
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A10/03
NCAA
St. Louis Billikens
#31
W
50-37
50
37
+13
H19/03
NIT
North Texas
#3
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A23/03
NIT
Ohio
#241
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A04/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A08/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H16/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A20/11
NCAA
77.0Avg total
38.2Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.334.272.5+4.167%-
Last 30 at home (12)41.828.870.5+13.092%-
Last 30 away (18)35.937.873.8-1.950%-
Last 10 (10)38.238.877.0-0.650%-
Last 5 (5)36.041.277.2-5.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)35.046.581.5-11.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)33.437.971.2-4.550%-
vs Weaker (18)39.831.471.2+8.478%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
SMU Mustangs wins
0
Arkansas State wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/11/25HArkansas-Pine Bluff106-60
15/11/25HButler87-85
12/11/25HMurray State102-91
07/11/25HTexas A&M-CC69-58
04/11/25HTarleton96-76
23/03/25HOklahoma State83-85
20/03/25HNorthern Iowa73-63
14/03/25AClemson54-57
13/03/25HSyracuse73-53
08/03/25AFlorida State69-76
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/11/25ASt. Marys (CA)72-85
16/11/25HChristian Brothers Buccaneers95-67
12/11/25AMissouri State86-85
08/11/25AStephen F. Austin65-90
04/11/25AOhio89-85
23/03/25ANorth Texas63-65
19/03/25HSt. Louis Billikens103-78
10/03/25ATroy81-94
09/03/25ASouth Alabama74-71
08/03/25HMarshall77-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games55-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game92.092.0-
Allowed / game74.074.0-
Point differential+18.0+18.0-
Avg total166.0166.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%80%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Arkansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL60%
HomeW100%
AwayWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games514
Win %60%100%50%
Points / game81.495.078.0
Allowed / game82.467.086.2
Point differential-1.0+28.0-8.2
Avg total163.8162.0164.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke660100%93.757.2+36.5
2 NC State440100%100.869.8+31.0
3 Syracuse440100%81.553.2+28.2
4 Louisville550100%97.269.6+27.6
5 North Carolina550100%88.063.2+24.8
6 Virginia Tech550100%92.272.8+19.4
7 SMU Mustangs550100%92.074.0+18.0
8 Stanford440100%87.570.2+17.2
9 Clemson65183%82.260.0+22.2
10 Virginia65183%83.371.7+11.7
11 Miami (FL)54180%91.269.0+22.2
12 Florida State54180%94.072.6+21.4
13 Notre Dame54180%83.667.6+16.0
14 California54180%84.069.6+14.4
15 Georgia Tech54180%71.063.0+8.0
16 Wake Forest64267%85.775.2+10.5
17 Pittsburgh64267%71.763.8+7.8
18 Boston College63350%66.862.0+4.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Marshall54180%87.081.6+5.4
2 Texas State75271%74.065.4+8.6
3 South Alabama75271%74.667.9+6.7
4 Appalachian State64267%72.866.2+6.7
5 Coastal Carolina53260%83.064.8+18.2
6 Arkansas State53260%81.482.4-1.0
7 Troy74357%92.985.1+7.7
8 Old Dominion63350%75.874.7+1.2
9 James Madison63350%76.276.0+0.2
10 Georgia Southern63350%85.586.8-1.3
11 Southern Miss52340%80.671.8+8.8
12 Louisiana Monroe51420%72.478.8-6.4
13 Louisiana Lafayette51420%62.474.8-12.4
14 Georgia State61517%64.074.0-10.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs5050100
Arkansas State303969
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