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SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 09 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 19:15
Scheduled
Position#31
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game92.0
Allowed / game67.5
vs
Position#156
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game89.7
Allowed / game75.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · SMU Mustangs v Louisville
09 Jan 2027
SMU v LOUI
upcoming
17 Feb 2026
SMU 95
LOUI85
21 Jan 2025
SMU 73
LOUI98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
L
75-95
75
95
-20
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
69-77
69
77
-8
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A07/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
86-69
86
69
+17
H10/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
58-62
58
62
-4
A11/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
79-89
79
89
-10
H19/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#407
W
85-72
85
72
+13
H03/11
NCAA
VMI
#175
W
95-70
95
70
+25
H06/11
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#269
W
98-63
98
63
+35
H11/11
NCAA
Ball State
#311
W
90-65
90
65
+25
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
27-34
48-61
31-38
38-39
27-45
51-46
39-38
47-31
26-26
32-36
34-43
45-46
40-38
45-34
47-28
48-42
52-36
46-27
51-17
39-48
156.6Avg total
81.3Scored
75.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)92.067.5159.5+24.5100%
Season at home (4)92.067.5159.5+24.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.375.3156.6+6.050%
Last 5 (5)89.471.8161.2+17.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)74.181.6155.7-7.414%
vs Similar (12)80.881.6162.3-0.842%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)91.170.7161.8+20.491%
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#56
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
77-62
77
62
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
92-89
92
89
+3
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
62-58
62
58
+4
H11/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
73-78
73
78
-5
A12/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
W
83-79
83
79
+4
H19/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A21/03
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#214
W
84-70
84
70
+14
H03/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#238
W
107-57
107
57
+50
H07/11
NCAA
Memphis
#142
L
78-98
78
98
-20
A15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-38
40-42
39-21
38-41
46-37
46-52
26-26
36-32
38-37
35-41
37-27
46-52
31-36
38-41
56-35
28-35
46-33
61-24
–
–
154.8Avg total
80.0Scored
74.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)89.775.0164.7+14.767%
Season at home (2)95.563.5159.0+32.0100%
Season away (1)78.098.0176.0-20.00%
Last 10 (10)80.074.8154.8+5.260%
Last 5 (5)84.276.2160.4+8.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)62.583.5146.0-21.00%
vs Similar (7)74.780.3155.0-5.629%
vs Weaker (21)86.371.6158.0+14.781%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +3.1+3.11st half: +7.1+7.12nd half2nd half: +2.9+2.92nd half: +0.9+0.9
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +3.1+3.11st half: +7.1+7.12nd half2nd half: +2.9+2.92nd half: +0.9+0.9
SMU MustangsLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A07/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H10/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A11/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H19/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#407
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H03/11
NCAA
VMI
#175
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H06/11
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#269
W
52-36
52
36
+16
H11/11
NCAA
Ball State
#311
W
51-17
51
17
+34
H14/11
NCAA
71.7Avg total
37.4Scored
34.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.836.676.4+3.260%-
Last 30 at home (18)43.135.478.5+7.678%-
Last 30 away (12)35.038.373.3-3.333%-
Last 10 (10)37.434.371.7+3.150%-
Last 5 (5)44.832.477.2+12.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.641.378.9-3.729%-
vs Similar (12)37.638.175.7-0.542%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)43.732.075.7+11.7100%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#56
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
26-26
26
26
+0
H11/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A12/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H19/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A21/03
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#214
W
56-35
56
35
+21
H03/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#238
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H07/11
NCAA
71.6Avg total
39.3Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)40.333.473.8+6.959%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.631.272.8+10.475%-
Last 30 away (13)38.836.274.9+2.638%-
Last 10 (9)39.332.271.6+7.167%-
Last 5 (5)41.633.675.2+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)37.538.075.5-0.550%-
vs Similar (7)35.034.769.7+0.343%-
vs Weaker (20)42.532.575.0+10.065%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
SMU Mustangs wins
3
Louisville wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HBall State90-65
11/11/26HPrairie View A&M98-63
06/11/26HVMI95-70
03/11/26HSouthern Univ.85-72
19/03/26HMiami (Ohio)79-89
11/03/26ALouisville58-62
10/03/26HSyracuse86-69
07/03/26AFlorida State78-91
05/03/26HMiami (FL)69-77
28/02/26AStanford75-95
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26AMemphis78-98
07/11/26HMorehead State107-57
03/11/26HChattanooga Mocs84-70
21/03/26AMichigan State69-77
19/03/26HSouth Florida83-79
12/03/26AMiami (FL)73-78
11/03/26HSMU Mustangs62-58
07/03/26AMiami (FL)92-89
04/03/26HSyracuse77-62
28/02/26AClemson75-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games44-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game92.092.0-
Allowed / game67.567.5-
Point differential+24.5+24.5-
Avg total159.5159.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Louisville
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game89.795.578.0
Allowed / game75.063.598.0
Point differential+14.7+32.0-20.0
Avg total164.7159.0176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
2 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
3 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
4 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
5 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
6 Boston College440100%74.053.5+20.5
7 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
8 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
9 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
10 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
11 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
12 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
13 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
14 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
15 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
16 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
17 Louisville32167%89.775.0+14.7
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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