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SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 18 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 95-85
52-49 43-36
Position#129
Record17-8
FormLLWWL
Points / game86.2
Allowed / game77.6
SMU Mustangs 🏆
USA
vs
Louisville
USA
Position#53
Record19-6
FormWWWWW
Points / game86.9
Allowed / game70.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · SMU Mustangs v Louisville
09 Jan 2027
SMU v LOUI
upcoming
17 Feb 2026
SMU 95
LOUI85
21 Jan 2025
SMU 73
LOUI98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#8
L
75-82
75
82
-7
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
91-79
91
79
+12
A21/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
83-80
83
80
+3
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
74-88
74
88
-14
A31/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
83-84
83
84
-1
H04/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
86-67
86
67
+19
A07/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
89-81
89
81
+8
H11/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
78-79
78
79
-1
A14/02
NCAA
1H
2H
35-41
40-41
39-38
38-38
37-40
31-32
45-36
46-43
46-34
37-46
47-44
27-44
42-34
41-50
34-32
52-35
43-37
46-44
39-35
39-44
159.2Avg total
80.4Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)86.277.6163.8+8.668%
Season at home (16)90.575.8166.2+14.888%
Season away (9)78.680.8159.3-2.233%
Last 10 (10)80.478.8159.2+1.650%
Last 5 (5)82.079.8161.8+2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)72.786.0158.7-13.30%
vs Similar (15)82.976.8159.7+6.160%
vs Weaker (11)88.472.7161.1+15.682%
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
W
75-62
75
62
+13
H10/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
70-79
70
79
-9
H14/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
100-59
100
59
+41
A18/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H24/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
52-83
52
83
-31
A27/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
88-74
88
74
+14
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
76-65
76
65
+11
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
88-80
88
80
+8
A07/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
118-77
118
77
+41
H10/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
W
82-71
82
71
+11
A14/02
NCAA
1H
2H
30-34
45-28
28-33
42-46
53-22
47-37
37-22
48-49
28-38
24-45
44-47
44-27
38-32
38-33
43-34
45-46
56-36
62-41
34-34
48-37
155.5Avg total
83.4Scored
72.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)86.970.9157.8+16.076%
Season at home (16)91.868.4160.1+23.488%
Season away (9)78.275.4153.7+2.856%
Last 10 (10)83.472.1155.5+11.380%
Last 5 (5)90.473.4163.8+17.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)62.380.0142.3-17.70%
vs Similar (5)72.682.6155.2-10.020%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)89.967.1157.0+22.895%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +3.6+3.61st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: -2.0-2.02nd half: +5.4+5.4
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +3.6+3.61st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: -2.0-2.02nd half: +5.4+5.4
SMU MustangsLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#8
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A21/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
47-44
47
44
+3
A31/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H04/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A07/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H11/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A14/02
NCAA
77.8Avg total
40.7Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.236.076.3+4.267%-
Last 30 at home (19)42.234.776.9+7.584%-
Last 30 away (11)36.838.375.1-1.536%-
Last 10 (10)40.737.177.8+3.680%-
Last 5 (5)41.036.477.4+4.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)40.044.384.3-4.333%-
vs Similar (15)40.636.477.0+4.267%-
vs Weaker (11)40.533.674.1+6.873%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H10/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H14/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
53-22
53
22
+31
A18/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H24/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
28-38
28
38
-10
A27/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A07/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
56-36
56
36
+20
H10/02
NCAA
Baylor
#200
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A14/02
NCAA
72.3Avg total
39.1Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.832.573.2+8.363%-
Last 30 at home (20)43.031.674.6+11.575%-
Last 30 away (10)36.234.370.5+1.940%-
Last 10 (10)39.133.272.3+5.950%-
Last 5 (5)43.036.679.6+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)37.736.374.0+1.367%-
vs Similar (5)30.238.268.4-8.020%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)43.630.674.2+13.073%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
SMU Mustangs wins
2
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
31/01/26Louisville v SMU Mustangs88-74
22/01/25SMU Mustangs v Louisville73-98
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26ASyracuse78-79
11/02/26HNotre Dame89-81
07/02/26APittsburgh86-67
04/02/26HNC State83-84
31/01/26ALouisville74-88
24/01/26HFlorida State83-80
21/01/26AWake Forest91-79
17/01/26HVirginia68-72
15/01/26HVirginia Tech77-76
10/01/26ADuke75-82
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26ABaylor82-71
10/02/26HNC State118-77
07/02/26AWake Forest88-80
05/02/26HNotre Dame76-65
31/01/26HSMU Mustangs88-74
27/01/26ADuke52-83
24/01/26HVirginia Tech85-71
18/01/26APittsburgh100-59
14/01/26HVirginia70-79
10/01/26HBoston College75-62

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL68%
HomeWLWLW88%
AwayLWLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games25169
Win %68%88%33%
Points / game86.290.578.6
Allowed / game77.675.880.8
Point differential+8.6+14.8-2.2
Avg total163.8166.2159.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%62%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)60% (5)0% (2)
Overtime %8%6%11%
Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW76%
HomeLWWWW88%
AwayLWLWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games25169
Win %76%88%56%
Points / game86.991.878.2
Allowed / game70.968.475.4
Point differential+16.0+23.4+2.8
Avg total157.8160.1153.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%75%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2624292%83.063.2+19.8
2 Virginia2622485%80.368.9+11.5
3 Miami (FL)2520580%83.670.1+13.5
4 North Carolina2520580%81.870.4+11.4
5 Clemson2620677%74.864.7+10.1
6 Louisville2519676%86.970.9+16.0
7 NC State2618869%85.074.4+10.6
8 California2618869%79.073.0+6.0
9 SMU Mustangs2517868%86.277.6+8.6
10 Virginia Tech2617965%79.274.7+4.4
11 Stanford26161062%75.472.5+2.9
12 Syracuse27151256%76.073.2+2.8
13 Wake Forest25131252%79.777.0+2.7
14 Florida State26131350%80.378.2+2.2
15 Notre Dame26121446%74.773.4+1.2
16 Georgia Tech26111542%74.576.3-1.8
17 Pittsburgh2691735%69.971.8-1.8
18 Boston College2691735%67.669.7-2.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs524395
Louisville493685
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