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Southern Miss vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 20 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 21:30
Final 86-93
32-39 54-54
Position#174
Record7-5
FormWLWLW
Points / game75.7
Allowed / game70.8
vs
Position#98
Record8-4
FormWWWLW
Points / game81.1
Allowed / game78.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Southern Miss v Arkansas State
20 Dec 2025
SOUT86
ARKA93
29 Jan 2025
SOUT68
ARKA81
17 Jan 2024
SOUT69
ARKA66
26 Jan 2023
SOUT73
ARKA57
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southern Miss winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Southern MissUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina
#278
L
79-83 OT
79
83
-4
A09/11
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
70-75
70
75
-5
A14/11
NCAA
William Carey
#444
W
82-59
82
59
+23
H19/11
NCAA
North Florida
#361
W
92-83
92
83
+9
H23/11
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
70-60
70
60
+10
H23/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
82-75
82
75
+7
A04/12
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
64-88
64
88
-24
A06/12
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
68-60
68
60
+8
H09/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
67-71
67
71
-4
A13/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H19/12
NCAA
1H
2H
34-38
36-32
30-42
40-33
38-28
44-31
35-46
57-37
41-22
29-38
31-29
51-46
34-34
30-54
29-31
39-29
29-31
38-40
24-17
38-37
144.4Avg total
73.6Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)75.770.8146.5+4.858%
Season at home (6)77.862.2140.0+15.7100%
Season away (6)73.579.5153.0-6.017%
Last 10 (10)73.670.8144.4+2.860%
Last 5 (5)68.669.6138.2-1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)70.078.6148.6-8.617%
vs Similar (14)72.172.4144.6-0.343%
vs Weaker (4)82.263.2145.5+19.0100%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Missouri State
#223
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
95-67
95
67
+28
H16/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
72-85
72
85
-13
A20/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
69-100
69
100
-31
A22/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
74-63
74
63
+11
H25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
85-80 OT
85
80
+5
H28/11
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
90-78
90
78
+12
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
76-77
76
77
-1
A13/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
89-70
89
70
+19
A18/12
NCAA
1H
2H
33-46
53-39
45-28
50-39
39-47
33-38
30-50
39-50
38-32
36-31
39-35
31-35
39-21
44-42
46-39
44-39
35-33
41-44
41-32
48-38
158.7Avg total
81.9Scored
76.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)81.178.6159.7+2.567%
Season at home (4)84.268.2152.5+16.0100%
Season away (8)79.583.8163.2-4.250%
Last 10 (10)81.976.8158.7+5.170%
Last 5 (5)84.673.6158.2+11.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.085.0159.0-11.033%
vs Similar (9)74.674.2148.8+0.344%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)82.670.6153.2+12.081%
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: +2.4+2.4
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: +0.7+0.71st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: +2.4+2.4
Southern MissArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Southern MissLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina
#278
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A09/11
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
30-42
30
42
-12
A14/11
NCAA
William Carey
#444
W
38-28
38
28
+10
H19/11
NCAA
North Florida
#361
L
35-46
35
46
-11
H23/11
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H23/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A04/12
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A06/12
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H09/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
29-31
29
31
-2
A13/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
24-17
24
17
+7
H19/12
NCAA
64.3Avg total
32.5Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.034.668.6-0.637%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.032.067.0+3.047%-
Last 30 away (15)33.037.270.2-4.227%-
Last 10 (10)32.531.864.3+0.740%-
Last 5 (5)29.428.457.8+1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)35.236.872.0-1.733%-
vs Similar (14)32.133.665.6-1.529%-
vs Weaker (4)37.231.568.8+5.875%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Missouri State
#223
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H16/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A20/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A22/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H28/11
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A13/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A18/12
NCAA
74.8Avg total
38.5Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.534.172.6+4.473%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.029.869.8+10.292%-
Last 30 away (17)37.437.474.8-0.159%-
Last 10 (10)38.536.374.8+2.270%-
Last 5 (5)40.032.072.0+8.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.342.779.0-6.333%-
vs Similar (9)35.833.469.2+2.378%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)39.333.172.4+6.275%-
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Southern Miss wins
3
Arkansas State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/12/25HLouisiana Lafayette62-54
13/12/25AOle Miss67-71
09/12/25HGrambling St.68-60
06/12/25AMiami (FL)64-88
04/12/25ARadford82-75
23/11/25HUT Martin70-60
23/11/25HNorth Florida92-83
19/11/25HWilliam Carey82-59
14/11/25AGrambling St.70-75
09/11/25ASouth Carolina79-83 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/12/25ATexas State89-70
13/12/25ARice76-77
07/12/25AUALR90-78
03/12/25HUT Arlington83-63
28/11/25HNorth Dakota St85-80 OT
25/11/25HJacksonville State74-63
22/11/25ASMU Mustangs69-100
20/11/25ASt. Marys (CA)72-85
16/11/25HChristian Brothers Buccaneers95-67
12/11/25AMissouri State86-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Southern Miss
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW58%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLWLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %58%100%17%
Points / game75.777.873.5
Allowed / game70.862.279.5
Point differential+4.8+15.7-6.0
Avg total146.5140.0153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)-0% (3)
Overtime %8%0%17%
Arkansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW67%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayLLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1248
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game81.184.279.5
Allowed / game78.668.283.8
Point differential+2.5+16.0-4.2
Avg total159.7152.5163.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%75%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %8%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State128467%81.178.6+2.5
2 Georgia Southern149564%83.177.9+5.3
3 Troy138562%87.578.7+8.8
4 Southern Miss127558%75.770.8+4.8
5 Marshall127558%78.176.8+1.3
6 James Madison127558%74.574.4+0.1
7 Appalachian State148657%73.465.9+7.5
8 Texas State148657%73.768.4+5.4
9 South Alabama137654%74.070.6+3.4
10 Coastal Carolina137654%73.271.4+1.8
11 Old Dominion134931%74.277.2-2.9
12 Louisiana Monroe1331023%73.282.1-8.9
13 Georgia State1331023%65.876.5-10.8
14 Louisiana Lafayette1321115%57.569.7-12.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Southern Miss325486
Arkansas State395493
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