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Southern Miss vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 30 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 68-81
41-37 27-44
Position#324
Record9-12
FormWLLWL
Points / game72.8
Allowed / game75.8
vs
Position#54
Record16-5
FormWWWWW
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game69.1
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Southern Miss v Arkansas State
20 Dec 2025
SOUT86
ARKA93
29 Jan 2025
SOUT68
ARKA81
17 Jan 2024
SOUT69
ARKA66
26 Jan 2023
SOUT73
ARKA57
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southern Miss winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Southern MissUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
W
68-66
68
66
+2
H21/12
NCAA
William Carey
#426
W
80-70
80
70
+10
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
72-83
72
83
-11
A03/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
L
71-74
71
74
-3
A04/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
84-67
84
67
+17
H10/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
92-88 OT
92
88
+4
H11/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
62-75
62
75
-13
A16/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
L
82-85 OT
82
85
-3
A18/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
67-59
67
59
+8
A26/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
61-70
61
70
-9
A27/01
NCAA
1H
2H
39-34
29-32
35-31
45-39
31-33
41-50
38-38
33-36
39-40
45-27
45-30
31-46
33-42
29-33
39-39
38-38
31-35
36-24
26-39
35-31
147.6Avg total
73.9Scored
73.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)72.875.8148.6-3.043%
Season at home (10)76.369.9146.2+6.480%
Season away (11)69.681.1150.7-11.59%
Last 10 (10)73.973.7147.6+0.250%
Last 5 (5)72.875.4148.2-2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)70.378.0148.3-7.733%
vs Similar (9)70.969.7140.6+1.244%
vs Weaker (3)87.369.3156.7+18.0100%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UAB
#91
W
98-89 OT
98
89
+9
A15/12
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#326
W
97-67
97
67
+30
H21/12
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
78-59
78
59
+19
A03/01
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A04/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
62-76
62
76
-14
A10/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
W
84-78
84
78
+6
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H17/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
85-59
85
59
+26
H18/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H24/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H25/01
NCAA
1H
2H
28-53
56-31
53-22
44-45
32-29
46-30
39-33
23-34
31-41
31-35
34-43
50-35
44-24
39-39
44-19
41-40
30-25
35-30
36-34
44-31
147.2Avg total
79.4Scored
67.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)78.569.1147.6+9.376%
Season at home (13)78.064.8142.8+13.285%
Season away (8)79.276.2155.5+3.062%
Last 10 (10)79.467.8147.2+11.680%
Last 5 (5)79.464.0143.4+15.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)65.078.7143.7-13.733%
vs Similar (9)83.677.7161.2+5.967%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)75.164.7139.8+10.481%
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: +4.8+4.82nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +5.9+5.9
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -0.5-0.51st half: +4.8+4.82nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +5.9+5.9
Southern MissArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Southern MissLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Marshall
#124
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H21/12
NCAA
William Carey
#426
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A03/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A04/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H10/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H11/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A16/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A18/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
L
31-35
31
35
-4
A26/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
26-39
26
39
-13
A27/01
NCAA
71.7Avg total
35.6Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.337.270.5-3.923%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.233.968.1+0.441%-
Last 30 away (13)32.241.573.7-9.40%-
Last 10 (10)35.636.171.7-0.530%-
Last 5 (5)34.837.071.8-2.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)32.838.771.5-5.822%-
vs Similar (9)32.135.968.0-3.811%-
vs Weaker (3)40.032.372.3+7.767%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UAB
#91
L
28-53
28
53
-25
A15/12
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#326
W
53-22
53
22
+31
H21/12
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A03/01
NCAA
James Madison
#110
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A04/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A10/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
44-24
44
24
+20
H17/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
44-19
44
19
+25
H18/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H24/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H25/01
NCAA
69.4Avg total
37.1Scored
32.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.132.971.0+5.367%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.530.169.6+9.476%-
Last 30 away (13)36.336.572.8-0.254%-
Last 10 (10)37.132.369.4+4.870%-
Last 5 (5)37.629.066.6+8.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)33.338.071.3-4.733%-
vs Similar (9)38.839.378.1-0.644%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)37.628.766.2+8.981%-
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Southern Miss wins
1
Arkansas State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/25ATroy61-70
26/01/25ALouisiana Lafayette67-59
18/01/25ATexas State82-85 OT
16/01/25ASouth Alabama62-75
11/01/25HTexas State92-88 OT
10/01/25HLouisiana Monroe84-67
04/01/25AOld Dominion71-74
03/01/25AJames Madison72-83
31/12/24HWilliam Carey80-70
21/12/24HMarshall68-66
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/25HTexas State80-65
24/01/25HAppalachian State65-55
18/01/25HGeorgia State85-59
17/01/25HLouisiana Lafayette83-63
11/01/25ATroy84-78
10/01/25ASouth Alabama62-76
04/01/25AJames Madison62-67
03/01/25AOld Dominion78-59
21/12/24HCoastal Carolina97-67
15/12/24AUAB98-89 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Southern Miss
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL43%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLLLWL9%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %43%80%9%
Points / game72.876.369.6
Allowed / game75.869.981.1
Point differential-3.0+6.4-11.5
Avg total148.6146.2150.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)75% (4)0% (2)
Overtime %10%10%9%
Arkansas State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW76%
HomeWWWWW85%
AwayWWLLW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21138
Win %76%85%62%
Points / game78.578.079.2
Allowed / game69.164.876.2
Point differential+9.3+13.2+3.0
Avg total147.6142.8155.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+48%62%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)75% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %10%8%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State2116576%78.569.1+9.3
2 South Alabama2114767%72.762.5+10.1
3 Troy2013765%72.965.5+7.3
4 Marshall2213959%75.671.1+4.5
5 Appalachian State2112957%69.162.9+6.2
6 Texas State2112957%77.572.1+5.4
7 James Madison2112957%73.469.7+3.7
8 Georgia Southern21111052%74.277.4-3.2
9 Old Dominion22101245%68.371.8-3.5
10 Southern Miss2191243%72.875.8-3.0
11 Coastal Carolina2181338%67.870.7-2.9
12 Georgia State2171433%72.980.2-7.3
13 Louisiana Lafayette2161529%66.075.5-9.5
14 Louisiana Monroe2251723%70.072.8-2.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Southern Miss412768
Arkansas State374481
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