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Texas State vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 18 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 70-89
32-41 38-48
Position#125
Record7-5
FormWLLLW
Points / game74.6
Allowed / game66.9
vs
Position#98
Record7-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game80.4
Allowed / game79.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Texas State v Arkansas State
17 Dec 2025
TEXA70
ARKA89
01 Feb 2025
TEXA74
ARKA85
20 Jan 2024
TEXA72
ARKA79
09 Feb 2023
TEXA66
ARKA62
17 Feb 2022
TEXA84
ARKA67
09 Jan 2021
TEXA v ARKA
upcoming
08 Jan 2021
TEXA v ARKA
upcoming
15 Feb 2020
TEXA69
ARKA64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulane
#173
L
71-79
71
79
-8
A08/11
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
80-69
80
69
+11
H13/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H15/11
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
63-49
63
49
+14
H19/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
65-56
65
56
+9
H22/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
93-41
93
41
+52
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
52-66
52
66
-14
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
74-78 OT
74
78
-4
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H11/12
NCAA
1H
2H
39-26
32-53
38-26
42-43
47-30
30-37
32-22
31-27
28-26
37-30
51-27
42-14
33-33
19-33
34-34
32-32
28-40
44-37
38-38
48-45
139.8Avg total
73.3Scored
66.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)74.666.9141.5+7.758%
Season at home (8)81.562.2143.8+19.288%
Season away (4)60.876.2137.0-15.50%
Last 10 (10)73.366.5139.8+6.860%
Last 5 (5)75.469.0144.4+6.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)69.779.6149.3-9.929%
vs Similar ◀ (7)73.979.1153.0-5.329%
vs Weaker (16)78.667.2145.8+11.369%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
65-90
65
90
-25
A08/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
95-67
95
67
+28
H16/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
72-85
72
85
-13
A20/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
69-100
69
100
-31
A22/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
74-63
74
63
+11
H25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
85-80 OT
85
80
+5
H28/11
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
90-78
90
78
+12
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
76-77
76
77
-1
A13/12
NCAA
1H
2H
31-46
34-44
33-46
53-39
45-28
50-39
39-47
33-38
30-50
39-50
38-32
36-31
39-35
31-35
39-21
44-42
46-39
44-39
35-33
41-44
158.3Avg total
79.5Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)80.479.4159.7+1.064%
Season at home (4)84.268.2152.5+16.0100%
Season away (7)78.185.7163.9-7.643%
Last 10 (10)79.578.8158.3+0.760%
Last 5 (5)81.672.2153.8+9.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.085.0159.0-11.033%
vs Similar ◀ (8)72.874.8147.5-2.038%
vs Weaker (17)82.670.2152.8+12.582%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.6+6.61st half: -0.2-0.22nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +0.4+0.4
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.6+6.61st half: -0.2-0.22nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +0.4+0.4
Texas StateArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulane
#173
W
39-26
39
26
+13
A08/11
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
38-26
38
26
+12
H13/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
W
47-30
47
30
+17
H15/11
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
32-22
32
22
+10
H19/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H22/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H11/12
NCAA
67.0Avg total
36.8Scored
30.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.333.468.6+1.943%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.731.769.4+6.059%-
Last 30 away (13)32.135.567.6-3.523%-
Last 10 (10)36.830.267.0+6.660%-
Last 5 (5)36.834.471.2+2.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)32.937.170.0-4.314%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)31.736.768.4-5.00%-
vs Weaker (16)37.930.268.1+7.675%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stephen F. Austin
#12
L
31-46
31
46
-15
A08/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A12/11
NCAA
Christian Brothers Buccaneers
#456
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H16/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A20/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A22/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H28/11
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A13/12
NCAA
75.2Avg total
37.5Scored
37.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.633.872.4+4.873%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.329.469.6+10.993%-
Last 30 away (16)37.137.874.9-0.656%-
Last 10 (10)37.537.775.2-0.260%-
Last 5 (5)39.432.071.4+7.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.342.779.0-6.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)35.133.668.8+1.575%-
vs Weaker (17)39.632.572.1+7.176%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Texas State wins
5
Arkansas State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/12/25HSouthern Univ.86-83
04/12/25ARice72-77
29/11/25HLehigh74-78 OT
28/11/25ASeattle52-66
25/11/25HTexas Lutheran93-41
22/11/25HUALR65-56
19/11/25HAbilene Christian63-49
15/11/25HTexas Southern77-67
13/11/25HUTSA Roadrunners80-69
08/11/25ATulane71-79
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/25ARice76-77
07/12/25AUALR90-78
03/12/25HUT Arlington83-63
28/11/25HNorth Dakota St85-80 OT
25/11/25HJacksonville State74-63
22/11/25ASMU Mustangs69-100
20/11/25ASt. Marys (CA)72-85
16/11/25HChristian Brothers Buccaneers95-67
12/11/25AMissouri State86-85
08/11/25AStephen F. Austin65-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW58%
HomeWWWLW88%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1284
Win %58%88%0%
Points / game74.681.560.8
Allowed / game66.962.276.2
Point differential+7.7+19.2-15.5
Avg total141.5143.8137.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%62%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %8%12%0%
Arkansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL64%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLLWL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %64%100%43%
Points / game80.484.278.1
Allowed / game79.468.285.7
Point differential+1.0+16.0-7.6
Avg total159.7152.5163.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%75%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %9%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Marshall117464%79.577.4+2.1
2 Arkansas State117464%80.479.4+1.0
3 Georgia Southern138562%82.678.7+3.9
4 Troy127558%89.080.0+9.0
5 Appalachian State127558%74.867.0+7.8
6 Texas State127558%74.666.9+7.7
7 South Alabama127558%74.870.9+3.8
8 James Madison127558%74.574.4+0.1
9 Southern Miss116555%76.972.4+4.5
10 Coastal Carolina116555%75.171.5+3.5
11 Old Dominion124833%74.277.2-3.0
12 Louisiana Monroe123925%74.182.6-8.5
13 Georgia State112918%65.376.5-11.3
14 Louisiana Lafayette111109%56.271.1-14.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Texas State323870
Arkansas State414889
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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