Tennessee State will host Murray State in a low-scoring NCAA contest on 2 November 2026, with the model predicting a tight 81-77 finish that favours the home side at 65% to 35%. The Volunteers have won four of their last five games, including a 93-67 victory over Morehead State and a 68-55 win at UT Martin, while the Hilltoppers have struggled, winning only one of their last five, a 88-75 home win over Evansville, and suffering defeats to Illinois (Chi.) and Bradley. Historically the Hilltoppers have dominated the series, winning all five meetings and most recently defeating Tennessee State 73-62 on 10 February 2022. The spread of -10.0 places the home team on the line, with a 30% chance of covering, and the over-165 line carries a 31% probability of going over, while the game has a 5% chance of overtime. Tennessee State's defence and the slower pace of play should keep the total below the projected 157.5 points, and the Hilltoppers' recent struggles suggest they will struggle to keep the score high.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.2 | 69.7 | 148.9 | +9.5 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.2 | 68.6 | 144.8 | +7.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 74.0 | 108.0 | 182.0 | -34.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (11) | 77.0 | 73.4 | 150.4 | +3.6 | 64% |
| vs Weaker (18) | 79.8 | 73.7 | 153.5 | +6.1 | 78% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 76.8 | 83.8 | 160.6 | -7.0 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.2 | 83.8 | 159.0 | -8.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 80.4 | 89.7 | 170.1 | -9.3 | 29% |
| vs Similar (16) | 82.2 | 80.1 | 162.3 | +2.2 | 56% |
| vs Weaker (7) | 85.0 | 73.1 | 158.1 | +11.9 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 81.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.6 | 36.1 | 72.7 | +0.4 | 50% | 20% |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 38.8 | 35.1 | 73.9 | +3.8 | 62% | 23% |
| Last 30 away (17) | 34.8 | 36.9 | 71.8 | -2.1 | 41% | 18% |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.3 | 34.5 | 72.8 | +3.8 | 60% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 35.2 | 72.8 | +2.4 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 29.0 | 55.0 | 84.0 | -26.0 | 0% | 100% |
| vs Similar (11) | 36.0 | 36.6 | 72.6 | -0.6 | 36% | 27% |
| vs Weaker (18) | 37.3 | 34.8 | 72.1 | +2.6 | 61% | 11% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 81.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.2 | 36.6 | 75.8 | +2.6 | 60% | 33% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.6 | 34.6 | 75.1 | +6.0 | 81% | 31% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 37.7 | 38.9 | 76.6 | -1.2 | 36% | 36% |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.8 | 36.3 | 73.1 | +0.5 | 50% | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.2 | 36.4 | 70.6 | -2.2 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 36.7 | 39.9 | 76.6 | -3.1 | 57% | 43% |
| vs Similar (16) | 38.3 | 37.4 | 75.8 | +0.9 | 44% | 31% |
| vs Weaker (7) | 43.9 | 31.4 | 75.3 | +12.4 | 100% | 29% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee State +9.5 | 88.1% | 10.50 | 10.50 | - | - | - | - | +79.2pp | Lost |
| Murray State +20.5 | 91.8% | 4.75 | 4.75 | - | - | - | - | +72.3pp | Won |
| Murray State +18.5 | 89.0% | 3.90 | 3.90 | - | - | - | - | +65.2pp | Won |
| Tennessee State +4.5 | 76.9% | 7.75 | 7.75 | - | - | - | - | +64.8pp | Lost |
| Murray State +18 | 88.9% | 3.75 | 3.75 | - | - | - | - | +64.2pp | Won |
| Murray State +17.5 | 87.4% | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.30 | - | - | - | +60.1pp | Won |
| Murray State +17 | 87.2% | 3.35 | 3.35 | - | - | - | - | +59.5pp | Won |
| Murray State +16.5 | 85.6% | 3.08 | 3.15 | 3.00 | - | - | - | +55.5pp | Won |
| Murray State +16 | 85.3% | 3.05 | 3.05 | - | - | - | - | +54.8pp | Won |
| Murray State +15.5 | 83.6% | 2.79 | 2.80 | 2.77 | - | - | - | +50.5pp | Won |
| Murray State +15 | 83.3% | 2.75 | 2.75 | - | - | - | - | +49.5pp | Won |
| Murray State +14.5 | 81.5% | 2.58 | 2.60 | 2.55 | - | - | - | +45.4pp | Won |
| Murray State +14 | 81.0% | 2.55 | 2.55 | - | - | - | - | +44.4pp | Won |
| Murray State +13.5 | 79.1% | 2.38 | 2.40 | 2.35 | - | - | - | +40.0pp | Won |
| Murray State +13 | 78.5% | 2.30 | 2.30 | - | - | - | - | +38.3pp | Won |
| Murray State +12.5 | 76.5% | 2.17 | 2.18 | 2.15 | - | - | - | +33.8pp | Won |
| Murray State +12 | 75.8% | 2.19 | 2.28 | 2.10 | - | - | - | +33.8pp | Won |
| Murray State +11.5 | 73.7% | 2.08 | 2.18 | 2.05 | 2.00 | - | - | +29.7pp | Won |
| Murray State +11 | 72.9% | 1.98 | 2.09 | 1.95 | 1.89 | - | - | +26.9pp | Won |
| Tennessee State under 88 | 76.6% | 1.83 | 1.83 | - | - | - | - | +26.1pp | Won |
| Tennessee State under 88.5 | 77.3% | 1.77 | 1.79 | 1.75 | - | - | - | +24.7pp | Won |
| Tennessee State under 87.5 | 74.3% | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.85 | +24.5pp | Won |
| Tennessee State under 89.5 | 80.1% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +24.1pp | Won |
| Tennessee State under 86.5 | 71.0% | 2.02 | 2.05 | 2.00 | - | - | - | +23.9pp | Won |
| Tennessee State under 90.5 | 82.8% | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +23.0pp | Won |
| Murray State +10.5 | 70.7% | 1.89 | 1.99 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.85 | +22.5pp | Won |
| Tennessee State under 91.5 | 85.1% | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.42 | - | - | - | +21.1pp | Won |
| Under 166 | 70.7% | 1.78 | 1.81 | 1.77 | 1.76 | - | - | +18.2pp | Won |
| Under 167 | 72.8% | 1.70 | 1.74 | 1.69 | 1.68 | - | - | +18.1pp | Won |
| Under 166.5 | 71.3% | 1.75 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.74 | 1.73 | 1.73 | +17.8pp | Won |
| Under 167.5 | 73.3% | 1.66 | 1.67 | 1.66 | 1.65 | - | - | +17.7pp | Won |
| Under 168 | 74.7% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +17.7pp | Won |
| Under 168.5 | 75.2% | 1.59 | 1.60 | 1.58 | - | - | - | +17.2pp | Won |
| Under 169 | 76.6% | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | +16.9pp | Won |
| Under 169.5 | 77.0% | 1.52 | 1.53 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +16.3pp | Won |
| Under 170 | 78.4% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +15.9pp | Won |
| Under 170.5 | 78.8% | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +15.8pp | Won |
| Under 171 | 80.1% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +15.6pp | Won |
| Under 171.5 | 80.4% | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +15.0pp | Won |
| Under 172 | 81.7% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +14.7pp | Won |
| Under 172.5 | 82.0% | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +14.6pp | Won |
| Under 173 | 83.2% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +13.8pp | Won |
| Under 173.5 | 83.5% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +13.0pp | Won |
| Under 175.5 | 86.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +11.4pp | Won |
| Under 174.5 | 84.9% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +10.8pp | Won |
| Murray State under 83.5 | 75.0% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Lost |
| Overtime: no | 95.0% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +3.2pp | - |
| Murray State under 82.5 | 72.0% | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +3.2pp | Lost |
| Murray State over 59.5 | 95.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +2.9pp | Won |
| Murray State under 84.5 | 77.9% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +2.6pp | Lost |
| Murray State over 58.5 | 96.0% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +2.3pp | Won |
| Murray State over 61.5 | 92.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.1pp | Won |
| Murray State over 60.5 | 94.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.8pp | Won |
| Murray State over 63.5 | 89.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +1.0pp | Won |
| Murray State over 62.5 | 91.4% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +0.9pp | Won |
| Murray State over 65.5 | 85.7% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -0.4pp | Won |
| Murray State over 64.5 | 87.8% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -0.9pp | Won |
| Murray State over 69.5 | 75.0% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -1.1pp | Won |
| Murray State over 66.5 | 83.4% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -2.1pp | Won |
| Murray State over 67.5 | 80.8% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | -2.2pp | Won |
| Murray State over 68.5 | 78.0% | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -2.9pp | Won |
| Murray State over 70.5 | 71.8% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | -3.5pp | Won |
| Tennessee State over 68.5 | 88.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -4.1pp | Lost |
| Over 139.5 | 86.0% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -6.2pp | Won |
| Over 140.5 | 84.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -7.0pp | Won |
| Tennessee State over 70.5 | 84.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -7.0pp | Lost |
| Tennessee State over 72.5 | 79.4% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -10.3pp | Lost |
| Over 144.5 | 78.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -11.0pp | Won |
| Over 145.5 | 76.1% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -12.9pp | Won |
| Tennessee State over 74.5 | 73.4% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -14.6pp | Lost |
| Tennessee State +14.5 | 94.3% | 17.00 | 17.00 | - | - | - | - | - | Lost |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 11/02/22 | Tennessee State v Murray State | 62-73 |
| 14/01/22 | Murray State v Tennessee State | 67-44 |
| 29/01/21 | Murray State v Tennessee State | 73-53 |
| 09/02/20 | Tennessee State v Murray State | 65-73 |
| 26/01/20 | Murray State v Tennessee State | 76-64 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 | A | Iowa State | 74-108 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Morehead State | 93-67 |
| 07/03/26 | H | UT Martin | 68-55 |
| 28/02/26 | A | UT Martin | 67-42 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Southeast Missouri State | 79-71 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Siu Edwardsville | 80-53 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Lindenwood | 89-80 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Morehead State | 86-94 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Southern Indiana | 73-71 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Western Illinois | 83-56 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 | H | Illinois (Chi.) | 79-92 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Bradley | 78-87 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Evansville | 88-75 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Illinois State | 61-78 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Belmont | 70-87 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Indiana State | 74-72 |
| 10/02/26 | H | Northern Iowa | 60-89 |
| 07/02/26 | A | Southern Illinois | 91-81 |
| 04/02/26 | H | Illinois (Chi.) | 81-74 |
| 01/02/26 | A | Belmont | 86-103 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 165 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 165 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IU Indy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 113.0 | 76.0 | +37.0 |
| 2 | Mercer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 53.0 | +37.0 |
| 3 | High Point | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 72.0 | 57.0 | +15.0 |
| 4 | Merrimack Warriors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 63.0 | 49.0 | +14.0 |
| 5 | Queens Royals | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 98.0 | +5.0 |
| 6 | Grambling St. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 87.0 | +2.0 |
| 7 | Notre Dame | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 72.0 | +2.0 |
| 8 | Northern Illinois | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 87.0 | 89.0 | -2.0 |
| 9 | Villanova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 74.0 | -2.0 |
| 10 | Winthrop | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 98.0 | 103.0 | -5.0 |
| 11 | Appalachian State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 49.0 | 63.0 | -14.0 |
| 12 | Liberty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 57.0 | 72.0 | -15.0 |
| 13 | Miami (OH) - Middletown | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 113.0 | -37.0 |
| 14 | Reinhardt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 53.0 | 90.0 | -37.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee State | 35 | 29 | 64 |
| Murray State | 46 | 48 | 94 |
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