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Tobol Kostanay vs Almaty Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 12:00
Final 79-73
18-21 24-17 23-20 14-15
Position#5
Record2-23
FormLLWLL
Points / game67.4
Allowed / game96.1
vs
Position#3
Record12-13
FormLLLLW
Points / game84.6
Allowed / game80.6
KazakhstanNational League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Tobol Kostanay v Almaty
28 Feb 2026
TOBO79
ALMA73
27 Feb 2026
TOBO72
ALMA84
28 Nov 2025
TOBO62
ALMA103
27 Nov 2025
TOBO63
ALMA105
19 May 2025
TOBO94
ALMA90
11 May 2025
TOBO102
ALMA90
10 May 2025
TOBO93
ALMA98
25 Mar 2025
TOBO20
ALMA0
24 Mar 2025
TOBO92
ALMA81
31 Mar 2024
TOBO112
ALMA85
30 Mar 2024
TOBO121
ALMA89
20 Jan 2024
TOBO109
ALMA102
19 Jan 2024
TOBO108
ALMA80
24 Jan 2021
TOBO113
ALMA72
23 Jan 2021
TOBO107
ALMA75
10 Feb 2019
TOBO83
ALMA91
09 Feb 2019
TOBO109
ALMA101
15 Apr 2017
TOBO100
ALMA89
05 Apr 2017
TOBO93
ALMA84
19 Feb 2017
TOBO105
ALMA69
25 Jan 2017
TOBO97
ALMA81
25 Dec 2016
TOBO97
ALMA87
11 Dec 2016
TOBO93
ALMA64
28 Oct 2016
TOBO70
ALMA69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tobol Kostanay winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Almaty winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Tobol KostanayKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKostanay
Date
Competition
Atyrau
#4
L
72-90
72
90
-18
52avg 65
A23/12
National League
Almaty
#3
L
89-125
89
125
-36
78avg 65
A10/01
National League
Almaty
#3
L
56-105
56
105
-49
44avg 65
A11/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
64-119
64
119
-55
45avg 65
H26/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
73-88
73
88
-15
63avg 65
H27/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
74-83
74
83
-9
63avg 65
H08/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
66-91
66
91
-25
49avg 65
H09/02
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
92-85
92
85
+7
82avg 65
H13/02
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
76-106
76
106
-30
52avg 65
H14/02
National League
Almaty
#3
L
72-84
72
84
-12
62avg 65
H27/02
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-28
15-15
16-23
19-24
28-26
20-34
23-36
18-29
18-36
12-27
15-20
11-22
17-30
20-29
12-29
15-31
20-27
18-20
19-18
16-23
20-21
21-18
16-20
17-24
23-22
19-36
7-19
17-14
27-23
27-18
24-18
14-26
22-26
17-27
21-35
16-18
17-20
24-19
18-21
13-24
171.0Avg total
73.4Scored
97.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)67.496.1163.5-28.88%
Season at home (15)66.994.4161.3-27.57%
Season away (10)68.198.7166.8-30.610%
Last 10 (10)73.497.6171.0-24.210%
Last 5 (5)76.089.8165.8-13.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)67.496.1163.5-28.88%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (5)89.691.6181.2-2.060%
This opponent (Almaty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlmatyKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlmaty
Date
Competition
Astana
#1
L
74-90
74
90
-16
69avg 78
A23/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
125-89
125
89
+36
132avg 78
H10/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
105-56
105
56
+49
104avg 78
H11/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
78-91
78
91
-13
73avg 78
A29/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
75-95
75
95
-20
62avg 78
A30/01
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
79-90
79
90
-11
80avg 78
A03/02
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
75-78
75
78
-3
66avg 78
A04/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
79-95
79
95
-16
71avg 78
H21/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
71-83
71
83
-12
58avg 78
H22/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
84-72
84
72
+12
74avg 78
A27/02
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-24
18-16
15-20
21-30
26-28
34-20
36-23
29-18
36-18
27-12
20-15
22-11
15-27
23-25
23-18
17-21
17-23
20-25
17-24
21-23
25-25
22-26
16-16
16-23
27-24
21-13
18-18
9-23
18-28
18-30
17-16
26-21
17-24
14-28
15-14
25-17
20-17
19-24
21-18
24-13
168.4Avg total
84.5Scored
83.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)84.680.6165.1+4.048%
Season at home (12)84.179.4163.5+4.742%
Season away (13)85.081.6166.6+3.454%
Last 10 (10)84.583.9168.4+0.630%
Last 5 (5)77.683.6161.2-6.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)81.190.9172.0-9.822%
vs Similar (14)80.084.6164.6-4.636%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)103.165.7168.9+37.4100%
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -5.0-5.0Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -6.8-6.8Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -7.9-7.9Q4: +1.0+1.0
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -5.0-5.0Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -6.8-6.8Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -7.9-7.9Q4: +1.0+1.0
Tobol KostanayAlmaty
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Tobol KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atyrau
#4
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A23/12
National League
Almaty
#3
L
48-60
48
60
-12
A10/01
National League
Almaty
#3
L
30-63
30
63
-33
A11/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
37-59
37
59
-22
H26/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H27/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H08/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
42-58
42
58
-16
H09/02
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
54-41
54
41
+13
H13/02
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
39-53
39
53
-14
H14/02
National League
Almaty
#3
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H27/02
National League
90.9Avg total
40.7Scored
50.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.149.685.7-13.517%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.548.886.3-11.322%-
Last 30 away (12)33.950.884.7-16.88%-
Last 10 (10)40.750.290.9-9.530%-
Last 5 (5)43.446.089.4-2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)33.950.284.2-16.312%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (5)46.846.493.2+0.440%-
This opponent (Almaty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlmatyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astana
#1
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A23/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
60-48
60
48
+12
H10/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
63-30
63
30
+33
H11/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
38-52
38
52
-14
A29/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A30/01
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
47-51
47
51
-4
A03/02
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
48-37
48
37
+11
A04/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
36-58
36
58
-22
H21/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
31-52
31
52
-21
H22/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A27/02
National League
89.4Avg total
43.7Scored
45.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.541.785.2+1.847%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.440.482.9+2.050%-
Last 30 away (16)44.442.887.2+1.644%-
Last 10 (10)43.745.789.4-2.030%-
Last 5 (5)40.247.888.0-7.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)40.846.987.7-6.133%-
vs Similar (14)39.543.883.3-4.336%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)55.030.985.9+24.186%-
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tobol Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tobol Kostanay: 70.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.4 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.817.4
44.8%
50.5%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.89.2
34.3%
30.4%27.6
🏀 Free throws12.48.4
67.7%
69.6%8.4
They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Almatytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Almaty: 88.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.423.7
52.2%
50.5%47.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.78.9
30.8%
30.4%26.6
🏀 Free throws21.614.1
65.6%
69.6%14.1
They take 74.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 5/7 games with a box score before 28 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tobol Kostanay
LLWLLLLLLL
Almaty
WLLLLLLWWL
#5
League position
#3
-42.3
Net rating
+6.3
89.7
Offensive rating
108.6
132.0
Defensive rating
102.3
47.6%
Effective FG%
49.9%
57.9%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.19
Free-throw rate
0.29
34.3%
3-point %
30.8%
47.4%
Assist %
64.0%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence89.7 · 108.6Defence132.0 · 102.3Shooting47.6% · 49.9%3-point %34.3% · 30.8%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.19 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)10% · 30%
■ Tobol Kostanay   ■ Almaty
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Tobol Kostanay wins
8
Almaty wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26HAlmaty72-84
14/02/26HAtyrau76-106
13/02/26HAtyrau92-85
09/02/26HKaspiy Aktau66-91
08/02/26HKaspiy Aktau74-83
27/01/26HAstana73-88
26/01/26HAstana64-119
11/01/26AAlmaty56-105
10/01/26AAlmaty89-125
23/12/25AAtyrau72-90
Almatylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26ATobol Kostanay84-72
22/02/26HKaspiy Aktau71-83
21/02/26HKaspiy Aktau79-95
04/02/26AAtyrau75-78
03/02/26AAtyrau79-90
30/01/26AKaspiy Aktau75-95
29/01/26AKaspiy Aktau78-91
11/01/26HTobol Kostanay105-56
10/01/26HTobol Kostanay125-89
23/12/25AAstana74-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tobol Kostanay
National League 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL8%
HomeLLWLL7%
AwayLLLLL10%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251510
Win %8%7%10%
Points / game67.466.968.1
Allowed / game96.194.498.7
Point differential-28.8-27.5-30.6
Avg total163.5161.3166.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Almaty
National League 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW48%
HomeLWWLL42%
AwayLLLLW54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251213
Win %48%42%54%
Points / game84.684.185.0
Allowed / game80.679.481.6
Point differential+4.0+4.7+3.4
Avg total165.1163.5166.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%33%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Astana22220100%91.165.2+25.9
2 Kaspiy Aktau24131154%81.876.3+5.4
3 Almaty25121348%84.680.6+4.0
4 Atyrau26121446%79.382.4-3.1
5 Tobol Kostanay252238%67.496.1-28.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Tobol Kostanay1824231479
Almaty2117201573
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