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Almaty vs Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 16 May 2025
Tip-off: 14:30
Final 80-89
15-26 13-23 24-25 28-15
Position#4
Record19-16
FormLLWLW
Points / game77.0
Allowed / game74.7
vs
Position#2
Record24-10
FormLLLWL
Points / game84.9
Allowed / game78.2
KazakhstanNational LeagueNational League - 3rd place· SC ADK
Other2024-25
Meetings · Almaty v Tobol Kostanay
11 Jan 2026
ALMA105
TOBO56
10 Jan 2026
ALMA125
TOBO89
12 Oct 2025
ALMA105
TOBO60
11 Oct 2025
ALMA95
TOBO58
16 May 2025
ALMA80
TOBO89
15 May 2025
ALMA100
TOBO70
02 Mar 2025
ALMA88
TOBO72
01 Mar 2025
ALMA98
TOBO101
06 Apr 2024
ALMA98
TOBO108
15 Nov 2023
ALMA79
TOBO65
14 Nov 2023
ALMA81
TOBO95
03 Apr 2021
ALMA68
TOBO101
02 Apr 2021
ALMA77
TOBO94
24 Dec 2020
ALMA90
TOBO92
23 Dec 2020
ALMA95
TOBO79
28 Apr 2019
ALMA71
TOBO67
27 Apr 2019
ALMA87
TOBO82
08 Nov 2018
ALMA82
TOBO79
07 Nov 2018
ALMA66
TOBO73
18 Nov 2017
ALMA74
TOBO68
22 Oct 2017
ALMA60
TOBO69
16 Apr 2017
ALMA98
TOBO97
18 Mar 2017
ALMA71
TOBO80
13 Dec 2015
ALMA69
TOBO83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Almaty winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tobol Kostanay winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlmatyKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlmaty
Date
Competition
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
0-20
0
20
-20
no box
A25/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
W
89-74
89
74
+15
80avg 76
H07/04
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
80-84
80
84
-4
73avg 76
A11/04
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
W
80-74
80
74
+6
76avg 76
H15/04
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
85-94
85
94
-9
80avg 76
A18/04
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
69-82
69
82
-13
no box
A19/04
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
69-78
69
78
-9
47avg 76
H24/04
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
W
98-93
98
93
+5
104avg 76
A10/05
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
90-102
90
102
-12
78avg 76
A11/05
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
W
100-70
100
70
+30
97avg 76
H15/05
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
–
–
–
–
30-18
19-15
18-22
22-19
18-25
15-19
22-25
25-15
12-26
21-9
15-19
32-20
22-17
23-23
18-21
22-33
19-23
25-14
5-21
20-24
10-25
21-10
22-21
16-22
22-19
26-28
23-26
27-20
32-28
19-24
25-22
14-28
24-22
22-16
33-14
21-18
153.1Avg total
76.0Scored
77.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)77.074.7151.7+2.354%
Season at home (18)78.168.2146.3+9.978%
Season away (17)75.881.6157.4-5.829%
Last 10 (10)76.077.1153.1-1.140%
Last 5 (5)85.285.0170.2+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)75.781.2156.9-5.521%
vs Similar (12)82.680.1162.7+2.567%
vs Weaker (4)58.039.897.8+18.2100%
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tobol KostanayKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKostanay
Date
Competition
Almaty
#4
W
92-81
92
81
+11
95avg 87
H24/03
National League
Almaty
#4
W
20-0
20
0
+20
no box
H25/03
National League
Pavlodar
#8
W
104-78
104
78
+26
115avg 87
H04/04
National League
Pavlodar
#8
W
105-91
105
91
+14
113avg 87
A05/04
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
70-93
70
93
-23
62avg 87
H19/04
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
76-97
76
97
-21
73avg 87
H20/04
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
65-84
65
84
-19
50avg 87
A23/04
National League
Almaty
#4
L
93-98
93
98
-5
78avg 87
H10/05
National League
Almaty
#4
W
102-90
102
90
+12
114avg 87
H11/05
National League
Almaty
#4
L
70-100
70
100
-30
58avg 87
A15/05
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-17
20-19
25-30
21-15
–
–
–
–
31-20
26-15
26-20
21-23
33-26
20-31
23-11
29-23
14-26
17-23
21-24
18-20
24-25
21-28
18-20
13-24
20-22
17-21
12-25
16-16
19-22
28-26
26-23
20-27
28-32
24-19
22-25
28-14
22-24
16-22
14-33
18-21
160.9Avg total
79.7Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)84.978.2163.1+6.671%
Season at home (19)85.976.9162.9+9.068%
Season away (15)83.579.9163.3+3.673%
Last 10 (10)79.781.2160.9-1.550%
Last 5 (5)81.293.8175.0-12.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)83.577.0160.5+6.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)83.878.3162.1+5.475%
This opponent (Almaty) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +0.1+0.1
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.6-1.6Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +0.1+0.1
AlmatyTobol Kostanay
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlmatyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
W
49-33
49
33
+16
H07/04
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A11/04
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H15/04
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A18/04
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A19/04
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
31-35
31
35
-4
H24/04
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
W
48-47
48
47
+1
A10/05
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A11/05
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H15/05
National League
82.3Avg total
42.2Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (27)41.840.782.5+1.152%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.738.080.7+4.760%-
Last 30 away (12)40.644.184.7-3.542%-
Last 10 (9)42.240.182.3+2.156%-
Last 5 (5)44.041.885.8+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)41.842.183.8-0.346%-
vs Similar (12)40.239.179.3+1.250%-
vs Weaker (2)51.041.592.5+9.5100%-
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tobol KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Almaty
#4
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H24/03
National League
Pavlodar
#8
W
57-35
57
35
+22
H04/04
National League
Pavlodar
#8
L
53-57
53
57
-4
A05/04
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H19/04
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
45-53
45
53
-8
H20/04
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A23/04
National League
Almaty
#4
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H10/05
National League
Almaty
#4
W
52-51
52
51
+1
H11/05
National League
Almaty
#4
L
38-46
38
46
-8
A15/05
National League
91.6Avg total
45.1Scored
46.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)43.441.985.3+1.652%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.241.686.9+3.656%-
Last 30 away (13)41.242.283.3-1.046%-
Last 10 (9)45.146.491.6-1.333%-
Last 5 (5)43.848.292.0-4.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (2)38.042.080.0-4.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)43.841.985.7+2.056%-
This opponent (Almaty) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Almaty wins
7
Tobol Kostanay wins
Almatylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/05/25HTobol Kostanay100-70
11/05/25ATobol Kostanay90-102
10/05/25ATobol Kostanay98-93
24/04/25HIrbis Almaty69-78
19/04/25AIrbis Almaty69-82
18/04/25AIrbis Almaty85-94
15/04/25HKaspiy Aktau80-74
11/04/25AKaspiy Aktau80-84
07/04/25HKaspiy Aktau89-74
25/03/25ATobol Kostanay0-20
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/05/25AAlmaty70-100
11/05/25HAlmaty102-90
10/05/25HAlmaty93-98
23/04/25AAstana 265-84
20/04/25HAstana 276-97
19/04/25HAstana 270-93
05/04/25APavlodar105-91
04/04/25HPavlodar104-78
25/03/25HAlmaty20-0
24/03/25HAlmaty92-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Almaty
National League 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW54%
HomeLWWLW78%
AwayLLLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351817
Win %54%78%29%
Points / game77.078.175.8
Allowed / game74.768.281.6
Point differential+2.3+9.9-5.8
Avg total151.7146.3157.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%61%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)33% (3)50% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Tobol Kostanay
National League 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL71%
HomeWLLLW68%
AwayWLWLL73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games341915
Win %71%68%73%
Points / game84.985.983.5
Allowed / game78.276.979.9
Point differential+6.6+9.0+3.6
Avg total163.1162.9163.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%53%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)50% (6)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Irbis Almaty3022873%80.472.9+7.6
2 Tobol Kostanay34241071%84.978.2+6.6
3 Almaty35191654%77.074.7+2.3
4 Astana 234181653%78.077.4+0.6
5 Atyrau28141450%78.577.2+1.3
6 Kaspiy Aktau29131645%74.175.7-1.6
7 Aktobe1631319%67.575.6-8.1
8 Pavlodar2842414%71.886.6-14.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Almaty1513242880
Tobol Kostanay2623251589
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