Almaty vs Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Jan 2026

Tip-off: 13:00

Final 125-89

26-28 34-20 36-23 29-18

Position#3

Record9-7

FormWLLLL

Points / game83.9

Allowed / game79.1

Almaty 🏆

Tobol Kostanay

Position#5

Record1-15

FormLWLLL

Points / game63.9

Allowed / game94.8

National League

Other2025-26

Meetings · Almaty v Tobol Kostanay

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Almaty winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Tobol Kostanay winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Almaty

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormAlmaty

Date

Competition

Astana

53-92

-39

42avg 78

H08/11

National League

Astana

73-106

106

-33

56avg 78

H09/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

67-70

-3

no box

H22/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

75-69

67avg 78

H23/11

National League

Tobol Kostanay

105-63

105

+42

103avg 78

A27/11

National League

Tobol Kostanay

103-62

103

+41

101avg 78

A28/11

National League

Atyrau

88-92

-4

74avg 78

H13/12

National League

Atyrau

73-83

-10

56avg 78

H14/12

National League

Astana

72-82

-10

69avg 78

A22/12

National League

Astana

74-90

-16

69avg 78

A23/12

National League

16-24

11-25

8-23

18-20

16-24

22-26

19-27

16-29

15-17

21-17

19-16

12-20

21-21

20-10

16-18

18-20

23-21

30-15

24-20

28-7

33-9

17-10

24-28

29-15

14-28

17-18

25-17

32-29

16-21

21-18

19-22

17-22

11-25

21-24

21-19

19-14

20-24

18-16

15-20

21-30

159.2Avg total

78.3Scored

80.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (16)	83.9	79.1	163.0	+4.9	56%
Season at home (8)	78.6	78.8	157.4	-0.1	38%
Season away (8)	89.2	79.4	168.6	+9.9	75%
Last 10 (10)	78.3	80.9	159.2	-2.6	30%
Last 5 (5)	82.0	81.8	163.8	+0.2	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	74.1	84.1	158.2	-10.1	13%
vs Similar (11)	82.9	80.4	163.3	+2.5	64%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	102.0	60.8	162.8	+41.2	100%

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormKostanay

Date

Competition

Atyrau

60-87

-27

43avg 70

H18/11

National League

Atyrau

56-86

-30

37avg 70

H19/11

National League

Almaty

63-105

105

-42

46avg 70

H27/11

National League

Almaty

62-103

103

-41

44avg 70

H28/11

National League

Astana

64-85

-21

49avg 70

A15/12

National League

Astana

67-108

108

-41

54avg 70

A16/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

81-75

76avg 70

A19/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

62-105

105

-43

47avg 70

A20/12

National League

Atyrau

72-94

-22

58avg 70

A22/12

National League

Atyrau

72-90

-18

52avg 70

A23/12

National League

16-25

18-18

16-23

10-21

12-17

7-22

22-31

15-16

21-23

15-30

20-24

7-28

9-33

10-17

28-24

15-29

22-22

13-18

10-21

19-24

16-29

12-33

15-30

24-16

23-23

12-23

24-12

22-17

12-29

17-21

17-25

16-30

11-26

25-25

9-23

27-20

22-28

15-15

16-23

19-24

159.7Avg total

65.9Scored

93.8Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (16)	63.9	94.8	158.7	-30.9	6%
Season at home (8)	60.8	95.0	155.8	-34.2	0%
Season away (8)	67.0	94.6	161.6	-27.6	12%
Last 10 (10)	65.9	93.8	159.7	-27.9	10%
Last 5 (5)	70.8	94.4	165.2	-23.6	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	63.9	94.8	158.7	-30.9	6%
vs Similar (2)	83.5	77.0	160.5	+6.5	50%
vs Weaker (12)	81.7	81.8	163.5	-0.2	58%

This opponent (Almaty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

AlmatyTobol Kostanay

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	21.0	21.9	42.9	-0.9	38%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.5	20.9	40.4	-1.4	36%	-
Last 30 away (15)	22.4	22.8	45.2	-0.4	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.5	21.4	39.9	-2.9	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.8	21.4	40.2	-2.6	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	19.8	23.2	43.0	-3.4	36%	-
vs Similar (11)	19.7	23.0	42.7	-3.3	18%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	28.8	14.0	42.8	+14.8	100%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	19.7	25.3	45.0	-5.7	17%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	19.9	25.4	45.3	-5.5	18%	-
Last 30 away (12)	19.4	25.2	44.7	-5.8	17%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.4	25.5	41.9	-9.1	0%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.8	27.0	43.8	-10.2	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	15.8	26.7	42.5	-10.9	0%	-
vs Similar (2)	23.5	25.5	49.0	-2.0	50%	-
vs Weaker (11)	24.6	23.4	48.0	+1.3	36%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	21.1	17.3	38.3	+3.8	59%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.5	15.7	36.2	+4.8	71%	-
Last 30 away (15)	21.6	18.7	40.3	+2.9	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.8	17.9	37.7	+1.9	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.8	17.2	36.0	+1.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	20.6	20.4	41.1	+0.2	43%	-
vs Similar (11)	19.5	15.8	35.3	+3.6	64%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	27.0	10.2	37.2	+16.8	100%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	16.8	22.4	39.2	-5.7	21%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	17.6	21.6	39.3	-4.0	29%	-
Last 30 away (12)	15.5	23.6	39.1	-8.1	8%	-
Last 10 (10)	14.4	22.2	36.6	-7.8	0%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.2	23.4	39.6	-7.2	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	14.1	23.1	37.2	-9.1	6%	-
vs Similar (2)	14.5	16.5	31.0	-2.0	0%	-
vs Weaker (11)	21.1	22.5	43.6	-1.5	45%	-

AlmatyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Astana

27-49

-22

H08/11

National League

Astana

38-50

-12

H09/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

36-34

H22/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

41-31

+10

H23/11

National League

Tobol Kostanay

53-36

+17

A27/11

National League

Tobol Kostanay

50-19

+31

A28/11

National League

Atyrau

31-46

-15

H13/12

National League

Atyrau

37-39

-2

H14/12

National League

Astana

32-49

-17

A22/12

National League

Astana

38-40

-2

A23/12

National League

77.6Avg total

38.3Scored

39.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	42.1	39.1	81.2	+2.9	52%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	40.0	36.6	76.6	+3.4	50%	-
Last 30 away (15)	44.0	41.5	85.5	+2.5	53%	-
Last 10 (10)	38.3	39.3	77.6	-1.0	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	37.6	38.6	76.2	-1.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	40.4	43.6	84.1	-3.2	43%	-
vs Similar (11)	39.2	38.8	78.0	+0.4	45%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	55.8	24.2	80.0	+31.5	100%	-

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Tobol KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Atyrau

34-43

-9

H18/11

National League

Atyrau

19-39

-20

H19/11

National League

Almaty

36-53

-17

H27/11

National League

Almaty

19-50

-31

H28/11

National League

Astana

35-40

-5

A15/12

National League

Astana

28-62

-34

A16/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

35-46

-11

A19/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

29-50

-21

A20/12

National League

Atyrau

36-51

-15

A22/12

National League

Atyrau

37-43

-6

A23/12

National League

78.5Avg total

30.8Scored

47.7Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	36.4	47.8	84.2	-11.3	14%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	37.5	47.1	84.6	-9.5	18%	-
Last 30 away (12)	34.9	48.8	83.8	-13.9	8%	-
Last 10 (10)	30.8	47.7	78.5	-16.9	0%	-
Last 5 (5)	33.0	50.4	83.4	-17.4	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	29.9	49.8	79.7	-19.9	0%	-
vs Similar (2)	38.0	42.0	80.0	-4.0	0%	-
vs Weaker (11)	45.7	45.9	91.6	-0.2	36%	-

This opponent (Almaty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	20.9	21.2	42.0	-0.3	45%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.6	20.6	41.1	+0.0	43%	-
Last 30 away (15)	21.1	21.7	42.9	-0.6	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.0	21.0	40.0	-2.0	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.8	21.2	42.0	-0.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	20.1	21.9	41.9	-1.8	43%	-
vs Similar (11)	20.6	19.5	40.2	+1.1	45%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	24.2	23.2	47.5	+1.0	50%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	19.7	22.7	42.4	-3.0	34%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	21.3	22.5	43.8	-1.2	35%	-
Last 30 away (12)	17.5	23.0	40.5	-5.5	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.7	23.6	41.3	-5.9	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.2	22.6	38.8	-6.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	17.9	23.4	41.3	-5.4	19%	-
vs Similar (2)	25.0	16.5	41.5	+8.5	100%	-
vs Weaker (11)	21.4	22.9	44.3	-1.5	45%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	20.5	20.9	41.4	-0.4	45%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.7	20.9	40.6	-1.2	43%	-
Last 30 away (15)	21.3	20.9	42.1	+0.4	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.0	20.6	41.6	+0.4	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.6	22.0	45.6	+1.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	18.6	22.7	41.4	-4.1	29%	-
vs Similar (11)	22.4	21.4	43.7	+1.0	55%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	22.0	13.2	35.2	+8.8	75%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	17.7	20.9	38.6	-3.2	31%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	16.3	20.9	37.2	-4.6	24%	-
Last 30 away (12)	19.7	20.8	40.5	-1.2	42%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.4	22.5	39.9	-5.1	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.6	21.4	43.0	+0.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	16.1	21.6	37.7	-5.6	25%	-
vs Similar (2)	20.5	18.5	39.0	+2.0	50%	-
vs Weaker (11)	19.5	20.2	39.7	-0.6	36%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	41.4	42.1	83.4	-0.7	45%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	40.3	41.5	81.8	-1.2	43%	-
Last 30 away (15)	42.4	42.6	85.0	-0.2	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	40.0	41.6	81.6	-1.6	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	44.4	43.2	87.6	+1.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	38.7	44.6	83.3	-5.9	29%	-
vs Similar (11)	43.0	40.9	83.9	+2.1	45%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	46.2	36.5	82.8	+9.8	100%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	37.4	43.6	81.0	-6.2	28%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	37.6	43.4	81.0	-5.8	35%	-
Last 30 away (12)	37.2	43.8	81.0	-6.7	17%	-
Last 10 (10)	35.1	46.1	81.2	-11.0	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	37.8	44.0	81.8	-6.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	34.0	45.0	79.0	-11.0	6%	-
vs Similar (2)	45.5	35.0	80.5	+10.5	100%	-
vs Weaker (11)	40.9	43.1	84.0	-2.2	45%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Almaty wins

Tobol Kostanay wins

Date	Game	Score
28/11/25	Tobol Kostanay v Almaty	62-103
27/11/25	Tobol Kostanay v Almaty	63-105
12/10/25	Almaty v Tobol Kostanay	105-60
11/10/25	Almaty v Tobol Kostanay	95-58
19/05/25	Tobol Kostanay v Almaty	94-90 OT
16/05/25	Almaty v Tobol Kostanay	80-89
15/05/25	Almaty v Tobol Kostanay	100-70
11/05/25	Tobol Kostanay v Almaty	102-90
10/05/25	Tobol Kostanay v Almaty	93-98
25/03/25	Tobol Kostanay v Almaty	20-0

Almatylast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
23/12/25	A	Astana	74-90
22/12/25	A	Astana	72-82
14/12/25	H	Atyrau	73-83
13/12/25	H	Atyrau	88-92
28/11/25	A	Tobol Kostanay	103-62
27/11/25	A	Tobol Kostanay	105-63
23/11/25	H	Kaspiy Aktau	75-69
22/11/25	H	Kaspiy Aktau	67-70
09/11/25	H	Astana	73-106
08/11/25	H	Astana	53-92

Tobol Kostanaylast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
23/12/25	A	Atyrau	72-90
22/12/25	A	Atyrau	72-94
20/12/25	A	Kaspiy Aktau	62-105
19/12/25	A	Kaspiy Aktau	81-75
16/12/25	A	Astana	67-108
15/12/25	A	Astana	64-85
28/11/25	H	Almaty	62-103
27/11/25	H	Almaty	63-105
19/11/25	H	Atyrau	56-86
18/11/25	H	Atyrau	60-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Almaty

National League 2025-26

Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLLL	56%
Home	LLWLL	38%
Away	WWWLL	75%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	16	8	8
Win %	56%	38%	75%
Points / game	83.9	78.6	89.2
Allowed / game	79.1	78.8	79.4
Point differential	+4.9	-0.1	+9.9
Avg total	163.0	157.4	168.6
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	25%	25%	25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (3)	0% (2)	100% (1)
Overtime %	6%	0%	12%

Tobol Kostanay

National League 2025-26

Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWLLL	6%
Home	LLLLL	0%
Away	LWLLL	12%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	16	8	8
Win %	6%	0%	12%
Points / game	63.9	60.8	67.0
Allowed / game	94.8	95.0	94.6
Point differential	-30.9	-34.2	-27.6
Avg total	158.7	155.8	161.6
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Astana	16	16	0	100%	91.1	64.9	+26.2
2	Almaty	16	9	7	56%	83.9	79.1	+4.9
3	Atyrau	16	8	8	50%	79.9	81.7	-1.8
4	Kaspiy Aktau	16	6	10	38%	78.1	76.4	+1.7
5	Tobol Kostanay	16	1	15	6%	63.9	94.8	-30.9

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Almaty	26	34	36	29	125
Tobol Kostanay	28	20	23	18	89

← all games of the day

Almaty vs Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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