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Tobol Kostanay vs Atyrau Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 23 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 84-115
19-42 28-31 16-18 21-24
Position#5
Record3-30
FormLLLLL
Points / game67.7
Allowed / game95.8
vs
Atyrau 🏆
Kazakhstan
Position#4
Record16-17
FormWWWLW
Points / game80.7
Allowed / game80.7
KazakhstanNational LeagueNational League - Quarter-finals
Other2025-26
Meetings · Tobol Kostanay v Atyrau
23 Apr 2026
TOBO84
ATYR115
14 Feb 2026
TOBO76
ATYR106
13 Feb 2026
TOBO92
ATYR85
19 Nov 2025
TOBO56
ATYR86
18 Nov 2025
TOBO60
ATYR87
15 Dec 2024
TOBO78
ATYR76
14 Dec 2024
TOBO80
ATYR78
01 May 2024
TOBO67
ATYR78
30 Apr 2024
TOBO87
ATYR91
16 Dec 2023
TOBO95
ATYR101
15 Dec 2023
TOBO94
ATYR92
26 Apr 2023
TOBO81
ATYR86
07 Mar 2023
TOBO64
ATYR72
06 Mar 2023
TOBO95
ATYR86
21 Nov 2022
TOBO90
ATYR88
20 Nov 2022
TOBO75
ATYR88
19 Dec 2021
TOBO77
ATYR91
18 Dec 2021
TOBO73
ATYR88
02 May 2021
TOBO83
ATYR104
28 Mar 2021
TOBO85
ATYR88
27 Mar 2021
TOBO74
ATYR85
08 Feb 2021
TOBO90
ATYR62
07 Feb 2021
TOBO85
ATYR99
12 Jan 2020
TOBO101
ATYR82
11 Jan 2020
TOBO67
ATYR89
02 Mar 2019
TOBO104
ATYR107
01 Mar 2019
TOBO76
ATYR83
21 Dec 2018
TOBO109
ATYR76
20 Dec 2018
TOBO94
ATYR96
07 Apr 2018
TOBO49
ATYR55
28 Mar 2018
TOBO100
ATYR75
27 Mar 2018
TOBO78
ATYR96
21 Oct 2017
TOBO73
ATYR72
11 Dec 2015
TOBO62
ATYR78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tobol Kostanay winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Atyrau winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Tobol KostanayKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atyrau
#4
L
76-106
76
106
-30
H14/02
National League
Almaty
#3
L
72-84
72
84
-12
H27/02
National League
Almaty
#3
W
79-73
79
73
+6
H28/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
73-88
73
88
-15
A15/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
48-101
48
101
-53
A16/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
66-105
66
105
-39
A19/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
75-99
75
99
-24
A20/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
82-97
82
97
-15
A23/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
66-106
66
106
-40
A24/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
62-89
62
89
-27
A22/04
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-26
17-27
21-35
16-18
17-20
24-19
18-21
13-24
18-21
24-17
23-20
14-15
22-27
23-19
19-21
9-21
21-23
5-26
9-27
13-25
14-37
15-31
18-15
19-22
29-20
16-37
14-26
16-16
24-22
18-26
20-18
20-31
13-30
18-26
18-32
17-18
22-27
9-22
17-23
14-17
164.7Avg total
69.9Scored
94.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)67.795.8163.5-28.19%
Season at home (16)67.693.1160.7-25.412%
Season away (17)67.898.4166.2-30.56%
Last 10 (10)69.994.8164.7-24.910%
Last 5 (5)70.299.2169.4-29.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)68.795.8164.5-27.110%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Atyrau) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AtyrauKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
106-76
106
76
+30
A14/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
69-85
69
85
-16
A25/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A26/02
National League
Almaty
#3
L
69-72
69
72
-3
A14/03
National League
Almaty
#3
L
72-74
72
74
-2
A15/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
97-82
97
82
+15
H23/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
106-66
106
66
+40
H24/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
86-79
86
79
+7
H29/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H30/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
89-62
89
62
+27
H22/04
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-22
27-17
35-21
18-16
16-23
17-20
15-19
21-23
15-20
10-22
24-16
23-21
22-29
15-17
14-17
18-9
12-22
18-23
18-14
24-15
22-24
26-18
18-20
31-20
30-13
26-18
32-18
18-17
16-21
20-19
29-20
21-19
16-29
16-18
21-22
28-17
27-22
22-9
23-17
17-14
160.8Avg total
84.7Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)80.780.7161.4-0.148%
Season at home (17)81.282.8164.0-1.547%
Season away (16)80.178.6158.6+1.550%
Last 10 (10)84.776.1160.8+8.650%
Last 5 (5)91.875.0166.8+16.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)70.286.3156.5-16.215%
vs Similar (8)84.982.9167.8+2.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)93.370.9164.2+22.489%
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -5.1-5.1Q1: -2.3-2.3Q2Q2: -8.1-8.1Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: -6.1-6.1Q3: +4.5+4.5Q4Q4: -5.6-5.6Q4: +4.8+4.8
Tobol KostanayAtyrau
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Tobol KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atyrau
#4
L
39-53
39
53
-14
H14/02
National League
Almaty
#3
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H27/02
National League
Almaty
#3
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H28/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A15/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
26-49
26
49
-23
A16/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
29-68
29
68
-39
A19/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
45-57
45
57
-12
A20/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
42-48
42
48
-6
A23/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
31-56
31
56
-25
A24/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
31-49
31
49
-18
A22/04
National League
87.4Avg total
37.1Scored
50.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.550.285.8-14.713%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.947.983.9-12.027%-
Last 30 away (15)35.152.587.7-17.40%-
Last 10 (10)37.150.387.4-13.220%-
Last 5 (5)35.655.691.2-20.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)35.550.285.8-14.713%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Atyrau) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AtyrauLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A14/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A25/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
25-42
25
42
-17
A26/02
National League
Almaty
#3
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A14/03
National League
Almaty
#3
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A15/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
48-42
48
42
+6
H23/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
56-31
56
31
+25
H24/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H29/03
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
32-47
32
47
-15
H30/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
49-31
49
31
+18
H22/04
National League
80.5Avg total
39.9Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.742.281.9-2.540%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.642.883.4-2.238%-
Last 30 away (14)38.741.680.3-2.943%-
Last 10 (10)39.940.680.5-0.740%-
Last 5 (5)44.238.282.4+6.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)34.545.580.0-10.98%-
vs Similar (8)39.944.184.0-4.238%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)47.035.982.9+11.189%-
This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tobol Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tobol Kostanay: 69.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.218.0
49.7%
50.5%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.27.8
25.8%
30.4%23.4
🏀 Free throws15.410.1
65.6%
69.6%10.1
They take 66.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Atyrautheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atyrau: 80.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.320.4
51.9%
50.5%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.89.1
30.5%
30.4%27.3
🏀 Free throws18.612.8
68.8%
69.6%12.8
They take 69.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tobol Kostanay
LLLLLLLWLL
Atyrau
WLWWWLLLLW
#5
League position
#4
-30.0
Net rating
+3.5
88.7
Offensive rating
105.7
118.6
Defensive rating
102.2
44.7%
Effective FG%
49.3%
53.7%
Opp. effective FG%
46.8%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.27
25.8%
3-point %
30.5%
54.3%
Assist %
60.0%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence88.7 · 105.7Defence118.6 · 102.2Shooting44.7% · 49.3%3-point %25.8% · 30.5%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.23 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)10% · 50%
■ Tobol Kostanay   ■ Atyrau
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Tobol Kostanay wins
9
Atyrau wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/04/26AAtyrau62-89
24/03/26AAtyrau66-106
23/03/26AAtyrau82-97
20/03/26AKaspiy Aktau75-99
19/03/26AKaspiy Aktau66-105
16/03/26AAstana48-101
15/03/26AAstana73-88
28/02/26HAlmaty79-73
27/02/26HAlmaty72-84
14/02/26HAtyrau76-106
Atyraulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/04/26HTobol Kostanay89-62
30/03/26HKaspiy Aktau81-86
29/03/26HKaspiy Aktau86-79
24/03/26HTobol Kostanay106-66
23/03/26HTobol Kostanay97-82
15/03/26AAlmaty72-74
14/03/26AAlmaty69-72
26/02/26AAstana72-79
25/02/26AAstana69-85
14/02/26ATobol Kostanay106-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tobol Kostanay
National League 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL9%
HomeLWLLW12%
AwayLLLLL6%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331617
Win %9%12%6%
Points / game67.767.667.8
Allowed / game95.893.198.4
Point differential-28.1-25.4-30.5
Avg total163.5160.7166.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Atyrau
National League 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW48%
HomeWWWLW47%
AwayWLLLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %48%47%50%
Points / game80.781.280.1
Allowed / game80.782.878.6
Point differential-0.1-1.5+1.5
Avg total161.4164.0158.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%35%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)33% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Astana3228488%87.865.9+22.0
2 Kaspiy Aktau32181456%81.476.5+4.8
3 Almaty32161650%81.779.5+2.2
4 Atyrau33161748%80.780.7-0.1
5 Tobol Kostanay333309%67.795.8-28.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Tobol Kostanay1928162184
Atyrau42311824115
← all games of the day
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