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Almaty vs Atyrau Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 13:00
Final 72-69
29-22 17-15 17-14 9-18
Position#3
Record14-14
FormLWLWW
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game80.0
Almaty 🏆
Kazakhstan
vs
Position#4
Record12-14
FormWLWLL
Points / game79.3
Allowed / game82.4
KazakhstanNational League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Almaty v Atyrau
24 May 2026
ALMA85
ATYR76
23 May 2026
ALMA68
ATYR85
15 Mar 2026
ALMA74
ATYR72
14 Mar 2026
ALMA72
ATYR69
14 Dec 2025
ALMA73
ATYR83
13 Dec 2025
ALMA88
ATYR92
19 Jan 2025
ALMA81
ATYR68
18 Jan 2025
ALMA105
ATYR96
30 Jan 2024
ALMA83
ATYR89
29 Jan 2024
ALMA0
ATYR20
20 Dec 2020
ALMA72
ATYR84
19 Dec 2020
ALMA81
ATYR85
18 May 2019
ALMA67
ATYR78
24 Jan 2019
ALMA82
ATYR89
23 Jan 2019
ALMA89
ATYR70
25 Mar 2016
ALMA60
ATYR91
24 Mar 2016
ALMA70
ATYR82
14 Nov 2015
ALMA83
ATYR84
15 Feb 2014
ALMA62
ATYR94
03 Nov 2013
ALMA46
ATYR92
02 Nov 2013
ALMA47
ATYR108
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Almaty winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Atyrau winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlmatyKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlmaty
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
78-91
78
91
-13
73avg 78
A29/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
75-95
75
95
-20
62avg 78
A30/01
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
79-90
79
90
-11
80avg 78
A03/02
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
75-78
75
78
-3
66avg 78
A04/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
79-95
79
95
-16
71avg 78
H21/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
71-83
71
83
-12
58avg 78
H22/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
84-72
84
72
+12
74avg 78
A27/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
L
73-79
73
79
-6
56avg 78
A28/02
National League
Astana
#1
W
86-77
86
77
+9
70avg 78
A07/03
National League
Astana
#1
W
72-69
72
69
+3
72avg 78
A08/03
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-27
23-25
23-18
17-21
17-23
20-25
17-24
21-23
25-25
22-26
16-16
16-23
27-24
21-13
18-18
9-23
18-28
18-30
17-16
26-21
17-24
14-28
15-14
25-17
20-17
19-24
21-18
24-13
21-18
17-24
20-23
15-14
24-23
20-21
19-18
23-15
12-6
23-24
18-20
19-19
160.1Avg total
77.2Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)83.880.0163.7+3.850%
Season at home (12)84.179.4163.5+4.742%
Season away (16)83.580.4163.9+3.156%
Last 10 (10)77.282.9160.1-5.730%
Last 5 (5)77.276.0153.2+1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)75.087.4162.4-12.425%
vs Similar ◀ (14)80.084.6164.6-4.636%
vs Weaker (8)99.467.4166.8+32.088%
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AtyrauKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAtyrau
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
91-101
91
101
-10
85avg 70
A11/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
75-73
75
73
+2
74avg 70
A12/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
50-79
50
79
-29
38avg 70
H20/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
68-97
68
97
-29
63avg 70
H21/01
National League
Almaty
#3
W
90-79
90
79
+11
84avg 70
H03/02
National League
Almaty
#3
W
78-75
78
75
+3
78avg 70
H04/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
L
85-92
85
92
-7
76avg 70
A13/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
106-76
106
76
+30
104avg 70
A14/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
69-85
69
85
-16
58avg 70
A25/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
62avg 70
A26/02
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-29
21-29
32-22
20-21
31-25
14-18
15-11
15-19
11-22
11-17
17-24
11-16
18-19
13-27
21-25
16-26
25-25
26-22
16-16
23-16
24-27
13-21
18-18
23-9
23-27
18-27
18-24
26-14
26-22
27-17
35-21
18-16
16-23
17-20
15-19
21-23
15-20
10-22
24-16
23-21
162.0Avg total
78.4Scored
83.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)79.382.4161.7-3.146%
Season at home (12)76.886.0162.8-9.233%
Season away (14)81.479.4160.8+2.157%
Last 10 (10)78.483.6162.0-5.240%
Last 5 (5)82.081.4163.4+0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)69.785.6155.3-15.921%
vs Similar ◀ (10)78.185.0163.1-6.940%
vs Weaker (6)91.371.3162.7+20.083%
This opponent (Almaty) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: -5.0-5.0Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +1.5+1.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: -5.0-5.0Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +1.5+1.5
AlmatyAtyrau
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlmatyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
38-52
38
52
-14
A29/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
37-48
37
48
-11
A30/01
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
47-51
47
51
-4
A03/02
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
48-37
48
37
+11
A04/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
36-58
36
58
-22
H21/02
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
31-52
31
52
-21
H22/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A27/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A28/02
National League
Astana
#1
D
44-44
44
44
+0
A07/03
National League
Astana
#1
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A08/03
National League
84.8Avg total
39.3Scored
45.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.641.083.6+1.643%-
Last 30 at home (13)42.240.682.8+1.546%-
Last 30 away (17)42.941.384.2+1.641%-
Last 10 (10)39.345.584.8-6.220%-
Last 5 (5)37.441.879.2-4.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)37.644.982.5-7.225%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.543.883.3-4.336%-
vs Weaker (8)52.932.285.1+20.675%-
This opponent (Atyrau) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AtyrauLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
39-58
39
58
-19
A11/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A12/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
22-39
22
39
-17
H20/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
31-46
31
46
-15
H21/01
National League
Almaty
#3
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H03/02
National League
Almaty
#3
L
37-48
37
48
-11
H04/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
L
41-54
41
54
-13
A13/02
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A14/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A25/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
25-42
25
42
-17
A26/02
National League
83.6Avg total
37.7Scored
45.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.042.480.4-4.430%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.144.181.2-7.120%-
Last 30 away (15)38.940.679.5-1.740%-
Last 10 (10)37.745.983.6-8.230%-
Last 5 (5)37.845.283.0-7.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)34.144.778.8-10.67%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)39.342.681.9-3.330%-
vs Weaker (6)45.036.581.5+8.583%-
This opponent (Almaty) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Almatytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Almaty: 84.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.022.8
50.7%
50.5%45.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.68.6
30.1%
30.4%25.8
🏀 Free throws20.713.4
64.7%
69.6%13.4
They take 73.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Atyrautheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atyrau: 70.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers27.7 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.313.8
39.2%
50.5%27.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.09.3
33.3%
30.4%28.0
🏀 Free throws22.315.2
67.9%
69.6%15.2
They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/6 games with a box score before 14 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Almaty
WWLWLLLLLL
Atyrau
LLWLWWLLWL
#3
League position
#4
+5.3
Net rating
-20.1
106.3
Offensive rating
95.9
101.0
Defensive rating
115.9
48.5%
Effective FG%
43.9%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.4%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.35
30.1%
3-point %
33.3%
61.1%
Assist %
76.3%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence106.3 · 95.9Defence101.0 · 115.9Shooting48.5% · 43.9%3-point %30.1% · 33.3%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.28 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Almaty   ■ Atyrau
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Almaty wins
6
Atyrau wins
DateGameScore
04/02/26Atyrau v Almaty78-75
03/02/26Atyrau v Almaty90-79
14/12/25Almaty v Atyrau73-83
13/12/25Almaty v Atyrau88-92
30/10/25Atyrau v Almaty83-89
29/10/25Atyrau v Almaty112-113 OT
19/01/25Almaty v Atyrau81-68
18/01/25Almaty v Atyrau105-96
02/12/24Atyrau v Almaty105-85
01/12/24Atyrau v Almaty80-78
Almatylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26AAstana72-69
07/03/26AAstana86-77
28/02/26ATobol Kostanay73-79
27/02/26ATobol Kostanay84-72
22/02/26HKaspiy Aktau71-83
21/02/26HKaspiy Aktau79-95
04/02/26AAtyrau75-78
03/02/26AAtyrau79-90
30/01/26AKaspiy Aktau75-95
29/01/26AKaspiy Aktau78-91
Atyraulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/26AAstana72-79
25/02/26AAstana69-85
14/02/26ATobol Kostanay106-76
13/02/26ATobol Kostanay85-92
04/02/26HAlmaty78-75
03/02/26HAlmaty90-79
21/01/26HAstana68-97
20/01/26HAstana50-79
12/01/26AKaspiy Aktau75-73
11/01/26AKaspiy Aktau91-101

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Almaty
National League 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW50%
HomeLWWLL42%
AwayLWLWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281216
Win %50%42%56%
Points / game83.884.183.5
Allowed / game80.079.480.4
Point differential+3.8+4.7+3.1
Avg total163.7163.5163.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)0% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %4%0%6%
Atyrau
National League 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL46%
HomeWLLWW33%
AwayWLWLL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261214
Win %46%33%57%
Points / game79.376.881.4
Allowed / game82.486.079.4
Point differential-3.1-9.2+2.1
Avg total161.7162.8160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%25%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Astana2623388%88.266.1+22.1
2 Kaspiy Aktau26141254%80.376.0+4.3
3 Almaty28141450%83.880.0+3.8
4 Atyrau26121446%79.382.4-3.1
5 Tobol Kostanay2632312%67.895.2-27.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Almaty291717972
Atyrau2215141869
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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