Astana vs Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 16 Mar 2026

Tip-off: 14:00

Final 101-48

23-21 26-5 27-9 25-13

Position#1

Record24-3

FormWLLLW

Points / game88.2

Allowed / game66.3

Astana 🏆

Tobol Kostanay

Position#5

Record3-24

FormWLLWL

Points / game68.0

Allowed / game95.0

National League· Saryarka Velodrome

Other2025-26

Meetings · Astana v Tobol Kostanay

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Astana winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Tobol Kostanay winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Astana

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormAstana

Date

Competition

Atyrau

97-68

+29

106avg 86

A21/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

119-64

119

+55

119avg 86

A26/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

88-73

+15

77avg 86

A27/01

National League

Atyrau

85-69

+16

86avg 86

H25/02

National League

Atyrau

79-72

76avg 86

H26/02

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

75-53

+22

81avg 86

A02/03

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

68-73

-5

66avg 86

A03/03

National League

Almaty

77-86

-9

74avg 86

H07/03

National League

Almaty

69-72

-3

59avg 86

H08/03

National League

Tobol Kostanay

88-73

+15

86avg 86

H15/03

National League

19-18

27-13

25-21

26-16

30-17

29-20

29-12

31-15

27-20

20-18

18-19

23-16

20-17

19-15

23-21

20-15

22-10

16-24

21-23

21-17

25-12

19-14

10-10

12-22

22-14

10-20

24-17

23-24

21-20

18-19

15-23

6-12

24-23

20-18

19-19

27-22

19-23

21-19

21-9

154.8Avg total

84.5Scored

70.3Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (27)	88.2	66.3	154.5	+21.9	89%
Season at home (13)	85.2	70.4	155.6	+14.8	85%
Season away (14)	90.9	62.6	153.5	+28.4	93%
Last 10 (10)	84.5	70.3	154.8	+14.2	70%
Last 5 (5)	75.4	71.4	146.8	+4.0	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	74.7	95.0	169.7	-20.3	0%
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (27)	88.2	66.3	154.5	+21.9	89%

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormKostanay

Date

Competition

Almaty

56-105

105

-49

44avg 63

A11/01

National League

Astana

64-119

119

-55

45avg 63

H26/01

National League

Astana

73-88

-15

63avg 63

H27/01

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

74-83

-9

63avg 63

H08/02

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

66-91

-25

49avg 63

H09/02

National League

Atyrau

92-85

82avg 63

H13/02

National League

Atyrau

76-106

106

-30

52avg 63

H14/02

National League

Almaty

72-84

-12

62avg 63

H27/02

National League

Almaty

79-73

74avg 63

H28/02

National League

Astana

73-88

-15

62avg 63

A15/03

National League

18-36

12-27

15-20

11-22

17-30

20-29

12-29

15-31

20-27

18-20

19-18

16-23

20-21

21-18

16-20

17-24

23-22

19-36

7-19

17-14

27-23

27-18

24-18

14-26

22-26

17-27

21-35

16-18

17-20

24-19

18-21

13-24

18-21

24-17

23-20

14-15

22-27

23-19

19-21

9-21

164.7Avg total

72.5Scored

92.2Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (27)	68.0	95.0	163.0	-27.0	11%
Season at home (16)	67.6	93.1	160.7	-25.4	12%
Season away (11)	68.5	97.7	166.3	-29.2	9%
Last 10 (10)	72.5	92.2	164.7	-19.7	20%
Last 5 (5)	78.4	87.2	165.6	-8.8	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)	68.0	95.0	163.0	-27.0	11%
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker (3)	84.3	90.0	174.3	-5.7	67%

This opponent (Astana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

AstanaTobol Kostanay

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.6	18.1	40.7	+4.5	70%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.1	18.6	40.8	+3.5	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	23.0	17.7	40.7	+5.3	75%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.8	18.3	39.1	+2.5	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.8	19.4	37.2	-1.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	20.7	25.0	45.7	-4.3	33%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (27)	22.8	17.4	40.2	+5.4	74%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.7	25.8	44.5	-7.1	13%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	18.4	25.2	43.6	-6.8	12%	-
Last 30 away (13)	19.1	26.5	45.5	-7.4	15%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.4	25.3	45.7	-4.9	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.2	23.4	44.6	-2.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)	18.0	26.1	44.1	-8.2	11%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker (3)	25.3	22.3	47.7	+3.0	33%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.0	16.6	38.6	+5.4	77%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	21.6	16.3	37.9	+5.3	79%	-
Last 30 away (16)	22.4	16.9	39.3	+5.6	75%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.9	17.0	39.9	+5.9	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.2	18.4	40.6	+3.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	17.0	23.0	40.0	-6.0	0%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (27)	22.6	15.9	38.5	+6.7	85%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.0	23.3	40.3	-6.4	23%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	17.9	22.9	40.8	-4.9	29%	-
Last 30 away (13)	15.7	23.9	39.6	-8.2	15%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.5	23.0	43.5	-2.5	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.0	20.0	43.0	+3.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)	16.7	23.5	40.1	-6.8	22%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker (3)	19.7	22.0	41.7	-2.3	33%	-

AstanaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Atyrau

46-31

+15

A21/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

59-37

+22

A26/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

47-38

A27/01

National League

Atyrau

43-33

+10

H25/02

National League

Atyrau

42-25

+17

H26/02

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

46-29

+17

A02/03

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

34-36

-2

A03/03

National League

Almaty

44-44

H07/03

National League

Almaty

30-35

-5

H08/03

National League

Tobol Kostanay

46-45

H15/03

National League

79.0Avg total

43.7Scored

35.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	44.6	34.7	79.4	+9.9	73%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	43.7	34.9	78.6	+8.8	71%	-
Last 30 away (16)	45.4	34.6	80.0	+10.9	75%	-
Last 10 (10)	43.7	35.3	79.0	+8.4	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	40.0	37.8	77.8	+2.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	37.7	48.0	85.7	-10.3	0%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (27)	45.4	33.3	78.7	+12.1	81%	-

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Tobol KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Almaty

30-63

-33

A11/01

National League

Astana

37-59

-22

H26/01

National League

Astana

38-47

-9

H27/01

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

41-39

H08/02

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

42-58

-16

H09/02

National League

Atyrau

54-41

+13

H13/02

National League

Atyrau

39-53

-14

H14/02

National League

Almaty

41-39

H27/02

National League

Almaty

42-38

H28/02

National League

Astana

45-46

-1

A15/03

National League

89.2Avg total

40.9Scored

48.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	35.7	49.1	84.8	-13.4	17%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	36.4	48.1	84.5	-11.8	24%	-
Last 30 away (13)	34.8	50.4	85.2	-15.6	8%	-
Last 10 (10)	40.9	48.3	89.2	-7.4	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	44.2	43.4	87.6	+0.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)	34.6	49.6	84.3	-15.0	15%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker (3)	45.0	44.3	89.3	+0.7	33%	-

This opponent (Astana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.3	17.9	39.2	+3.4	67%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.8	18.2	39.0	+2.6	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	21.8	17.6	39.4	+4.2	69%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.5	18.1	37.6	+1.4	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.6	18.0	35.6	-0.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	18.3	24.3	42.7	-6.0	0%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (27)	21.7	17.2	38.9	+4.5	74%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.2	23.5	41.7	-5.3	27%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	18.5	22.8	41.3	-4.4	29%	-
Last 30 away (13)	17.8	24.4	42.2	-6.5	23%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.4	22.1	39.5	-4.7	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.0	23.0	44.0	-2.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)	17.9	23.4	41.3	-5.4	22%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker (3)	20.7	24.7	45.3	-4.0	67%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.9	16.6	37.4	+4.3	67%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.1	17.9	37.9	+2.2	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	21.6	15.4	37.0	+6.1	75%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.3	16.9	38.2	+4.4	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.8	15.6	33.4	+2.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	18.7	22.7	41.3	-4.0	33%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (27)	21.1	15.9	37.0	+5.2	70%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	15.5	21.8	37.3	-6.2	20%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	13.9	21.8	35.7	-7.8	12%	-
Last 30 away (13)	17.6	21.8	39.4	-4.2	31%	-
Last 10 (10)	14.2	21.8	36.0	-7.6	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	13.2	20.8	34.0	-7.6	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)	15.4	22.0	37.4	-6.5	19%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker (3)	16.3	20.0	36.3	-3.7	33%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	42.2	34.5	76.7	+7.7	77%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	40.9	36.1	76.9	+4.8	71%	-
Last 30 away (16)	43.4	33.1	76.4	+10.3	81%	-
Last 10 (10)	40.8	35.0	75.8	+5.8	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	35.4	33.6	69.0	+1.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	37.0	47.0	84.0	-10.0	33%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (27)	42.8	33.1	75.9	+9.7	81%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	33.7	45.3	79.0	-11.5	10%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	32.4	44.6	77.0	-12.2	12%	-
Last 30 away (13)	35.5	46.2	81.6	-10.7	8%	-
Last 10 (10)	31.6	43.9	75.5	-12.3	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	34.2	43.8	78.0	-9.6	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)	33.4	45.3	78.7	-12.0	7%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker (3)	37.0	44.7	81.7	-7.7	33%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Astanatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Astana: 84.5 points a game scored

🏀🏀49%

🏀🏀🏀32%

🏀19%

🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 49% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 32% of the points

🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 19% of the points

League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game

49%

33%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.1	20.9	57.9%	50.5%	41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.5	8.9	30.2%	30.4%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	22.7	16.0	70.5%	69.6%	16.0

They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Tobol Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tobol Kostanay: 72.3 points a game scored

🏀🏀51%

🏀🏀🏀35%

🏀14%

🏀🏀 2-pointers37.1 pts a game · 51% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.3 pts a game · 35% of the points

🏀 Free throws9.9 pts a game · 14% of the points

League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game

49%

33%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.6	18.6	48.1%	50.5%	37.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.0	8.4	31.2%	30.4%	25.3
🏀 Free throws	15.4	9.9	63.9%	69.6%	9.9

They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.8	17.1	44.1%	50.5%	34.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.9	7.2	28.9%	30.4%	21.6
🏀 Free throws	22.1	14.5	65.6%	69.6%	14.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	45.6	27.1	59.6%	50.5%	54.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.9	10.3	33.3%	30.4%	30.9
🏀 Free throws	18.4	12.3	66.7%	69.6%	12.3

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.0	17.7	52.0%	50.5%	35.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.1	8.8	31.2%	30.4%	26.3
🏀 Free throws	16.4	11.4	69.3%	69.6%	11.4

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.1	18.8	52.1%	50.5%	37.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.8	9.2	34.2%	30.4%	27.5
🏀 Free throws	20.2	14.5	71.8%	69.6%	14.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	45.6	27.1	59.6%	50.5%	54.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.9	10.3	33.3%	30.4%	30.9
🏀 Free throws	18.4	12.3	66.7%	69.6%	12.3

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/7 games with a box score before 16 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Astana

WLLLWWWWWW

Tobol Kostanay

LWLLWLLLLL

League position

+19.1

Net rating

-32.1

113.4

Offensive rating

92.1

94.4

Defensive rating

124.2

52.2%

Effective FG%

47.6%

43.8%

Opp. effective FG%

55.7%

0.0%

Turnover %

0.0%

0.35

Free-throw rate

0.24

30.2%

3-point %

31.2%

72.1%

Assist %

51.3%

70%

Form (last 10/10)

20%

Profile

■ Astana ■ Tobol Kostanay

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Astana wins

Tobol Kostanay wins

Date	Game	Score
15/03/26	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	88-73
27/01/26	Tobol Kostanay v Astana	73-88
26/01/26	Tobol Kostanay v Astana	64-119
16/12/25	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	108-67
15/12/25	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	85-64
27/10/25	Tobol Kostanay v Astana	54-103
26/10/25	Tobol Kostanay v Astana	56-88
31/03/23	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	88-71
30/03/23	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	84-51
29/12/22	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	114-56

Astanalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
15/03/26	H	Tobol Kostanay	88-73
08/03/26	H	Almaty	69-72
07/03/26	H	Almaty	77-86
03/03/26	A	Kaspiy Aktau	68-73
02/03/26	A	Kaspiy Aktau	75-53
26/02/26	H	Atyrau	79-72
25/02/26	H	Atyrau	85-69
27/01/26	A	Tobol Kostanay	88-73
26/01/26	A	Tobol Kostanay	119-64
21/01/26	A	Atyrau	97-68

Tobol Kostanaylast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
15/03/26	A	Astana	73-88
28/02/26	H	Almaty	79-73
27/02/26	H	Almaty	72-84
14/02/26	H	Atyrau	76-106
13/02/26	H	Atyrau	92-85
09/02/26	H	Kaspiy Aktau	66-91
08/02/26	H	Kaspiy Aktau	74-83
27/01/26	H	Astana	73-88
26/01/26	H	Astana	64-119
11/01/26	A	Almaty	56-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Astana

National League 2025-26

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLLW	89%
Home	WWLLW	85%
Away	WWWWL	93%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	27	13	14
Win %	89%	85%	93%
Points / game	88.2	85.2	90.9
Allowed / game	66.3	70.4	62.6
Point differential	+21.9	+14.8	+28.4
Avg total	154.5	155.6	153.5
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	85%	77%	93%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (2)	0% (1)	0% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Tobol Kostanay

National League 2025-26

Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLWL	11%
Home	LWLLW	12%
Away	LLLLL	9%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	27	16	11
Win %	11%	12%	9%
Points / game	68.0	67.6	68.5
Allowed / game	95.0	93.1	97.7
Point differential	-27.0	-25.4	-29.2
Avg total	163.0	160.7	166.3
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Astana	27	24	3	89%	88.2	66.3	+21.9
2	Kaspiy Aktau	26	14	12	54%	80.3	76.0	+4.3
3	Almaty	30	16	14	53%	83.0	79.3	+3.7
4	Atyrau	28	12	16	43%	78.7	81.8	-3.1
5	Tobol Kostanay	27	3	24	11%	68.0	95.0	-27.0

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Astana	23	26	27	25	101
Tobol Kostanay	21	5	9	13	48

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Astana vs Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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