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Toledo vs Northern Illinois Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 28 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 72-75
37-28 35-47
Position#107
Record17-10
FormWLWWL
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game77.1
vs
Position#307
Record9-18
FormLWLLL
Points / game73.3
Allowed / game78.1
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Toledo v Northern Illinois
24 Feb 2026
TOLE79
NORT69
01 Feb 2025
TOLE89
NORT85
27 Feb 2024
TOLE72
NORT75
08 Jan 2022
TOLE94
NORT63
22 Dec 2020
TOLE78
NORT55
04 Feb 2020
TOLE61
NORT66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toledo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Northern Illinois winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Michigan
#168
L
62-65
62
65
-3
A20/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#307
W
89-73
89
73
+16
A24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#127
W
88-72
88
72
+16
H27/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
W
88-63
88
63
+25
H31/01
NCAA
Akron
#59
L
70-77
70
77
-7
A03/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#278
W
91-87
91
87
+4
A07/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#14
L
104-109 OT
104
109
-5
A10/02
NCAA
Ohio
#120
W
85-83
85
83
+2
H17/02
NCAA
Akron
#59
W
72-64
72
64
+8
H21/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#127
L
68-76
68
76
-8
A24/02
NCAA
1H
2H
23-30
39-35
38-38
51-35
31-31
57-41
48-27
40-36
36-47
34-30
42-37
49-50
47-46
43-44
39-44
46-39
32-22
40-42
38-39
30-37
158.6Avg total
81.7Scored
76.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)80.077.1157.1+3.063%
Season at home (15)80.275.3155.5+4.973%
Season away (12)79.879.3159.2+0.550%
Last 10 (10)81.776.9158.6+4.860%
Last 5 (5)84.083.8167.8+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)78.688.0166.6-9.40%
vs Similar (16)78.676.1154.7+2.675%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)83.874.0157.8+9.875%
This opponent (Northern Illinois) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern IllinoisUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toledo
#107
L
73-89
73
89
-16
H24/01
NCAA
Ball State
#226
L
71-81
71
81
-10
A27/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
L
77-84 OT
77
84
-7
A31/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#278
W
76-66
76
66
+10
H03/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#228
W
62-59
62
59
+3
A07/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#212
L
66-75
66
75
-9
A10/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#362
W
72-68
72
68
+4
H14/02
NCAA
Kent State
#199
L
47-85
47
85
-38
A17/02
NCAA
Ball State
#226
L
63-70
63
70
-7
H21/02
NCAA
Ohio
#120
L
59-80
59
80
-21
H24/02
NCAA
1H
2H
38-38
35-51
26-39
45-42
36-30
27-33
28-32
48-34
30-31
32-28
31-36
35-39
31-34
41-34
26-44
21-41
31-27
32-43
26-34
33-46
142.3Avg total
66.6Scored
75.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)73.378.1151.5-4.833%
Season at home (13)74.073.8147.8+0.238%
Season away (14)72.782.2154.9-9.529%
Last 10 (10)66.675.7142.3-9.130%
Last 5 (5)61.475.6137.0-14.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)68.381.2149.4-12.921%
vs Similar (6)75.879.8155.7-4.017%
vs Weaker (3)82.071.0153.0+11.0100%
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +1.3+1.31st half: -4.2-4.22nd half2nd half: +4.0+4.02nd half: -4.2-4.2
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +1.3+1.31st half: -4.2-4.22nd half2nd half: +4.0+4.02nd half: -4.2-4.2
ToledoNorthern Illinois
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Michigan
#168
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A20/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#307
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#127
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H27/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#300
W
48-27
48
27
+21
H31/01
NCAA
Akron
#59
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A03/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#278
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A07/02
NCAA
Appalachian State
#14
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A10/02
NCAA
Ohio
#120
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H17/02
NCAA
Akron
#59
W
32-22
32
22
+10
H21/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#127
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A24/02
NCAA
73.5Avg total
37.4Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.937.274.2-0.340%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.636.473.1+0.235%-
Last 30 away (13)37.338.375.6-1.046%-
Last 10 (10)37.436.173.5+1.340%-
Last 5 (5)39.637.677.2+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)35.041.876.8-6.820%-
vs Similar (16)35.936.572.4-0.638%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)39.535.575.0+4.050%-
This opponent (Northern Illinois) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern IllinoisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toledo
#107
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H24/01
NCAA
Ball State
#226
L
26-39
26
39
-13
A27/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#168
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A31/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#278
L
28-32
28
32
-4
H03/02
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#228
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A07/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#212
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A10/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#362
L
31-34
31
34
-3
H14/02
NCAA
Kent State
#199
L
26-44
26
44
-18
A17/02
NCAA
Ball State
#226
W
31-27
31
27
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Ohio
#120
L
26-34
26
34
-8
H24/02
NCAA
64.8Avg total
30.3Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.735.471.1+0.343%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.033.868.8+1.233%-
Last 30 away (15)36.337.073.3-0.753%-
Last 10 (10)30.334.564.8-4.220%-
Last 5 (5)29.035.064.0-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)33.538.572.1-5.032%-
vs Similar (6)35.033.768.7+1.350%-
vs Weaker (3)37.030.067.0+7.067%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Toledo wins
2
Northern Illinois wins
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/02/24ABowling Green68-76
21/02/24HAkron72-64
17/02/24HOhio85-83
10/02/24AAppalachian State104-109 OT
07/02/24AEastern Michigan91-87
03/02/24AAkron70-77
31/01/24HWestern Michigan88-63
27/01/24HBowling Green88-72
24/01/24ANorthern Illinois89-73
20/01/24ACentral Michigan62-65
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/02/24HOhio59-80
21/02/24HBall State63-70
17/02/24AKent State47-85
14/02/24HBuffalo72-68
10/02/24ASouth Alabama66-75
07/02/24AMiami (Ohio)62-59
03/02/24HEastern Michigan76-66
31/01/24ACentral Michigan77-84 OT
27/01/24ABall State71-81
24/01/24HToledo73-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toledo
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL63%
HomeWWWWW73%
AwayWLWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271512
Win %63%73%50%
Points / game80.080.279.8
Allowed / game77.175.379.3
Point differential+3.0+4.9+0.5
Avg total157.1155.5159.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%27%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won73% (11)83% (6)60% (5)
Overtime %4%0%8%
Northern Illinois
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL33%
HomeLWWLL38%
AwayLLWLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271314
Win %33%38%29%
Points / game73.374.072.7
Allowed / game78.173.882.2
Point differential-4.8+0.2-9.5
Avg total151.5147.8154.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%31%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (1)50% (4)
Overtime %7%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron2720774%75.065.0+10.0
2 UMass27171063%79.271.6+7.6
3 Bowling Green27171063%75.271.9+3.3
4 Toledo27171063%80.077.1+3.0
5 Central Michigan27161159%66.470.1-3.7
6 Ohio27151256%78.471.8+6.6
7 Miami (Ohio)26131350%72.870.4+2.4
8 Kent State27131448%75.972.0+3.9
9 Ball State27131448%73.370.4+2.9
10 Eastern Michigan27111641%67.374.4-7.1
11 Western Michigan27101737%71.374.5-3.1
12 Northern Illinois2791833%73.378.1-4.8
13 Buffalo2742315%67.879.8-12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Toledo373572
Northern Illinois284775
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