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Trento vs Basket Napoli Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 86-90
Projected total 176.6
Scheduled
Position#11
Record3-5
FormLLLLL
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game84.1
Trento
Italy
Vs
36%
64%
■ TRE 36%■ NAP 64%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.9/10
Around normal
6.0/10
Above normal
Basket Napoli
Italy
Position#2
Record7-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game93.2
Allowed / game86.9
ItalyLega ARound 9· BLM Group Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Trento v Basket Napoli
05 Jan 2027
TRE v NAP
upcoming
22 Nov 2026
TRE v NAP
upcoming
09 Nov 2025
TRE87
NAP93
01 Dec 2024
TRE90
NAP83
23 Dec 2023
TRE101
NAP94
26 Mar 2023
TRE79
NAP87
23 Jan 2022
TRE85
NAP72
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Trento host Basket Napoli in the Lega Basket Serie A. Pythia makes Basket Napoli the favourite at 64% and projects 86-90, about 177 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Trento are 3-5 this season (79.8 scored, 84.1 allowed a game), form LLLLL; Basket Napoli are 7-1 this season (93.2 scored, 86.9 allowed a game), form WWWWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trento win
35.8%fair 2.79
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Basket Napoli win
64.2%fair 1.56
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TrentoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTrento
Date
Competition
Chemnitz
#13
L
80-88
80
88
-8
75avg 76
H13/10
Eurocup
Varese
#6
W
87-85
87
85
+2
83avg 76
H18/10
Lega A
JL Bourg
#24
L
79-90
79
90
-11
70avg 76
A21/10
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
L
81-87
81
87
-6
69avg 76
A24/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#10
W
94-92
94
92
+2
88avg 76
H27/10
Eurocup
Maxima Roma
#5
L
62-88
62
88
-26
51avg 76
H01/11
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#2
L
79-90
79
90
-11
no box
A03/11
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
86-88
86
88
-2
no box
A08/11
Lega A
Tofas
#6
L
86-96
86
96
-10
no box
H10/11
Eurocup
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
75-88
75
88
-13
no box
H15/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-19
17-18
24-18
22-33
23-17
26-24
23-21
15-23
24-19
21-34
15-22
19-15
26-22
19-16
19-24
17-25
23-16
24-34
20-17
27-25
10-13
16-15
17-22
19-38
21-24
18-13
15-28
25-25
28-26
20-30
22-19
16-13
24-21
20-23
22-23
20-29
13-24
19-15
16-31
27-18
170.1Avg total
80.9Scored
89.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)79.884.1163.9-4.438%
Season at home (4)78.588.5167.0-10.025%
Season away (4)81.079.8160.8+1.250%
Last 10 (10)80.989.2170.1-8.320%
Last 5 (5)77.690.0167.6-12.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)83.489.1172.6-5.731%
vs Similar (13)81.884.1165.9-2.246%
vs Weaker (1)81.087.0168.0-6.00%
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNapoli
Date
Competition
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
86-82
86
82
+4
84avg 82
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
82-98
82
98
-16
72avg 82
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
105-101 OT
105
101
+4
99avg 82
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#12
W
92-90
92
90
+2
86avg 82
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#26
W
94-85
94
85
+9
98avg 82
A28/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#7
W
99-81
99
81
+18
100avg 82
H01/11
Lega A
Trento
#27
W
90-79
90
79
+11
no box
H03/11
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
W
91-89
91
89
+2
no box
A08/11
Lega A
Chemnitz
#13
W
112-90
112
90
+22
no box
A11/11
Eurocup
Trieste
#8
W
90-89
90
89
+1
no box
H15/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-18
18-19
21-24
25-21
25-18
13-23
23-25
21-32
29-20
24-22
20-24
20-27
19-26
22-21
26-17
25-26
24-20
23-25
24-20
23-20
19-16
25-22
30-20
25-23
24-21
13-18
28-15
25-25
22-19
15-28
27-28
27-14
24-22
35-19
20-28
33-21
34-27
11-24
20-22
25-16
182.5Avg total
94.1Scored
88.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)93.286.9180.1+6.488%
Season at home (4)92.590.2182.8+2.275%
Season away (4)94.083.5177.5+10.5100%
Last 10 (10)94.188.4182.5+5.790%
Last 5 (5)96.485.6182.0+10.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)77.694.2171.8-16.60%
vs Similar (14)87.685.5173.1+2.157%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)94.583.6178.1+10.8100%
This opponent (Trento) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1301%1351%1402%1454%1506%1558%16010%16512%17012%17511%18010%1858%1905%1954%2002%2051%2101%2150%2200%225
0%1301%1404%1508%16012%17011%1808%1904%2001%2100%220
Pythia expects about 177 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (12%).
Over/Under 168
Over 168
69.2%
Under 168
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 173
Over 173
57.7%
Under 173
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 178
Over 178
45.6%
Under 178
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Trento total 84.5
Over 84.5
55.7%
Under 84.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trento total 88.5
Over 88.5
41.0%
Under 88.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trento total 92.5
Over 92.5
27.6%
Under 92.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Basket Napoli total 80.5
Over 80.5
83.2%
Under 80.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Basket Napoli total 84.5
Over 84.5
71.6%
Under 84.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Basket Napoli total 88.5
Over 88.5
57.1%
Under 88.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

3%5%8%10%0%-390%-361%-331%-302%-273%-244%-216%-187%-158%-129%-910%-69%-36%+09%+37%+65%+94%+123%+152%+181%+211%+240%+27
0%-361%-303%-246%-188%-1210%-66%+07%+64%+122%+181%+24
Margin from Trento's side (positive = Trento win). Pythia's expected margin is -4.2; Trento win by 1+ in 32% of simulations.
Spread Trento -3
TRE -3
27.6%
NAP +3
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
TRE
No market prices yet.
NAP
No market prices yet.
Spread Trento 0
TRE 0
35.8%
NAP 0
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
TRE
No market prices yet.
NAP
No market prices yet.
Spread Trento +3
TRE +3
44.2%
NAP -3
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
TRE
No market prices yet.
NAP
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +3.5+3.5Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -3.7-3.7Q4: +2.4+2.4
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +3.5+3.5Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -3.7-3.7Q4: +2.4+2.4
TrentoBasket Napoli
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TrentoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chemnitz
#13
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H13/10
Eurocup
Varese
#6
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H18/10
Lega A
JL Bourg
#24
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A21/10
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A24/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#10
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H27/10
Eurocup
Maxima Roma
#5
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H01/11
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#2
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A03/11
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
48-56
48
56
-8
A08/11
Lega A
Tofas
#6
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H10/11
Eurocup
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H15/11
Lega A
83.2Avg total
40.9Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.743.784.4-3.033%-
Last 30 at home (13)38.743.281.8-4.523%-
Last 30 away (17)42.344.186.4-1.841%-
Last 10 (10)40.942.383.2-1.430%-
Last 5 (5)37.840.878.6-3.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)40.944.285.2-3.325%-
vs Similar (13)40.243.583.6-3.338%-
vs Weaker (1)45.038.083.0+7.0100%-
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#12
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#26
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A28/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#7
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H01/11
Lega A
Trento
#27
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H03/11
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A08/11
Lega A
Chemnitz
#13
W
59-41
59
41
+18
A11/11
Eurocup
Trieste
#8
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H15/11
Lega A
86.9Avg total
44.1Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.541.484.0+1.163%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.038.779.7+2.360%-
Last 30 away (15)44.144.288.3-0.167%-
Last 10 (10)44.142.886.9+1.350%-
Last 5 (5)44.443.287.6+1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)39.243.482.6-4.260%-
vs Similar (14)41.140.982.0+0.357%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)45.841.387.1+4.573%-
This opponent (Trento) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Trentotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Trento: 80.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.317.0
48.2%
54.3%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.310.4
33.2%
34.3%31.2
🏀 Free throws20.215.1
74.8%
74.6%15.1
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Basket Napolitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Napoli: 93.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.720.5
59.1%
54.3%41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.611.5
41.7%
34.3%34.5
🏀 Free throws24.717.8
72.1%
74.6%17.8
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Trento
LLLLLWLLWL
Basket Napoli
WWWWWWWWLW
#11
League position
#2
-5.3
Net rating
+8.2
87.9
Offensive rating
106.6
93.1
Defensive rating
98.4
48.9%
Effective FG%
60.6%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
17.4%
Turnover %
15.8%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.40
33.2%
3-point %
41.7%
66.8%
Assist %
68.1%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence87.9 · 106.6Defence93.1 · 98.4Shooting48.9% · 60.6%3-point %33.2% · 41.7%Ball care17.4% · 15.8%Free throws0.30 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)20% · 90%
■ Trento   ■ Basket Napoli
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Trento wins
5
Basket Napoli wins
DateGameScore
03/11/26Basket Napoli v Trento90-79
25/04/26Basket Napoli v Trento84-74
09/11/25Trento v Basket Napoli87-93
10/05/25Basket Napoli v Trento89-114
01/12/24Trento v Basket Napoli90-83
21/04/24Basket Napoli v Trento93-103
23/12/23Trento v Basket Napoli101-94
26/03/23Trento v Basket Napoli79-87
10/12/22Basket Napoli v Trento69-58
23/01/22Trento v Basket Napoli85-72
Trentolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HVirtus Bologna75-88
10/11/26HTofas86-96
08/11/26AOlimpia Milano86-88
03/11/26ABasket Napoli79-90
01/11/26HMaxima Roma62-88
27/10/26HBuducnost94-92
24/10/26AScafati81-87
21/10/26AJL Bourg79-90
18/10/26HVarese87-85
13/10/26HChemnitz80-88
Basket Napolilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HTrieste90-89
11/11/26AChemnitz112-90
08/11/26AScafati91-89
03/11/26HTrento90-79
01/11/26HVenezia99-81
28/10/26ANeptunas94-85
25/10/26ATortona92-90
21/10/26HTofas105-101 OT
18/10/26HOlimpia Milano82-98
14/10/26ASlask Wroclaw86-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Trento
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL38%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %38%25%50%
Points / game79.878.581.0
Allowed / game84.188.579.8
Point differential-4.4-10.0+1.2
Avg total163.9167.0160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Basket Napoli
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW88%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %88%75%100%
Points / game93.292.594.0
Allowed / game86.990.283.5
Point differential+6.4+2.2+10.5
Avg total180.1182.8177.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%25%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna87188%95.484.6+10.8
2 Basket Napoli87188%93.286.9+6.4
3 Olimpia Milano86275%89.981.1+8.8
4 Treviso86275%90.887.6+3.1
5 Maxima Roma85362%87.284.2+3.0
6 Varese85362%89.187.1+2.0
7 Venezia85362%87.987.6+0.2
8 Trieste84450%93.888.6+5.1
9 Udine84450%79.980.6-0.8
10 Verona84450%88.590.8-2.2
11 Trento83538%79.884.1-4.4
12 Tortona83538%86.591.1-4.6
13 BC Roma82625%98.698.0+0.6
14 Reggiana82625%82.085.6-3.6
15 Scafati81712%81.591.9-10.4
16 Cantu8080%78.892.8-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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