PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
UMass hosts Bryant University on 17 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with the Pythia model designating UMass as the clear favourite at 95% due to their 2-1 record, 66.0 points per game and 64.3 allowed per game, while Bryant sits at 1-3 with 62.5 points per game and 71.8 allowed per game. UMass has gone 1-0 at home, scoring 72.0 and allowing 62.0, and has won three of its last five games, including a 72-62 victory over UMass Lowell at home on 11 November 2026; Bryant has won one of five road games, with a 55-78 loss to Providence on 10 November 2026 among recent outings. Their only previous meeting ended with Bryant defeating UMass 93-88 on 21 December 2020. Pythia projects a 84-65 score for UMass, with a total of 148.7 points, giving UMass a 95% chance to win and Bryant a 5% chance. The model assigns a 95% probability that UMass will cover the spread and a 0% probability that the total will hit the over, with a 1% chance of overtime. The game will likely see UMass maintain its offensive edge while Bryant struggles to contain their opponents.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 66.0 | 64.3 | 130.3 | +1.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (1) | 72.0 | 62.0 | 134.0 | +10.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 63.0 | 65.5 | 128.5 | -2.5 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.0 | 76.2 | 150.2 | -2.2 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.4 | 70.6 | 141.0 | -0.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 78.6 | 83.6 | 162.2 | -5.0 | 25% |
| vs Similar (10) | 80.9 | 80.9 | 161.8 | +0.0 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 76.7 | 72.0 | 148.7 | +4.7 | 73% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 60.2 | 71.8 | 132.0 | -11.6 | 20% |
| Season at home (2) | 69.5 | 71.5 | 141.0 | -2.0 | 50% |
| Season away (3) | 54.0 | 72.0 | 126.0 | -18.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 63.5 | 72.5 | 136.0 | -9.0 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 60.2 | 71.8 | 132.0 | -11.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 61.2 | 73.9 | 135.1 | -12.8 | 16% |
| vs Similar (9) | 68.2 | 70.1 | 138.3 | -1.9 | 44% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 95.0 | 59.0 | 154.0 | +36.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.5 | 34.3 | 70.8 | +2.1 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 35.1 | 32.7 | 67.8 | +2.4 | 54% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 37.5 | 35.6 | 73.1 | +1.9 | 59% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.3 | 34.2 | 69.5 | +1.1 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.0 | 36.8 | 71.8 | -1.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 37.5 | 37.9 | 75.4 | -0.4 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 35.4 | 34.6 | 70.0 | +0.8 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 36.3 | 32.7 | 69.0 | +3.5 | 82% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.0 | 32.7 | 63.7 | -1.8 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 33.6 | 30.1 | 63.7 | +3.6 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 28.6 | 35.1 | 63.7 | -6.4 | 12% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.3 | 33.9 | 64.2 | -3.6 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.4 | 34.6 | 65.0 | -4.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 29.4 | 36.1 | 65.5 | -6.7 | 16% | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 30.6 | 28.9 | 59.4 | +1.7 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 54.0 | 19.0 | 73.0 | +35.0 | 100% | - |
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| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21/12/20 | UMass v Bryant University | 88-93 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | UMass Lowell | 72-62 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Boston College | 55-71 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Troy | 71-60 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Toledo | 67-77 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Miami (Ohio) | 87-83 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Ohio | 94-82 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Bowling Green | 62-81 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Ball State | 73-74 OT |
| 21/02/26 | H | Buffalo | 82-86 OT |
| 18/02/26 | H | Miami (Ohio) | 77-86 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | A | Rutgers | 51-72 |
| 11/11/26 | A | Providence | 55-78 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Fairfield | 59-68 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Quinnipiac | 56-66 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Siena | 80-75 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Vermont | 57-77 |
| 03/03/26 | A | New Hampshire Wildcats | 83-88 OT |
| 28/02/26 | H | NJIT | 69-52 |
| 26/02/26 | A | UMBC Retrievers | 58-70 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Binghamton | 67-79 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | WL | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| Points / game | 66.0 | 72.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 64.3 | 62.0 | 65.5 |
| Point differential | +1.7 | +10.0 | -2.5 |
| Avg total | 130.3 | 134.0 | 128.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLLL | 20% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 20% | 50% | 0% |
| Points / game | 60.2 | 69.5 | 54.0 |
| Allowed / game | 71.8 | 71.5 | 72.0 |
| Point differential | -11.6 | -2.0 | -18.0 |
| Avg total | 132.0 | 141.0 | 126.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Akron | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 62.7 | +21.3 |
| 2 |  Central Michigan | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 65.8 | +18.0 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 76.0 | +10.3 |
| 4 |  Miami (Ohio) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 76.0 | +8.0 |
| 5 |  Western Michigan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 60.8 | +18.2 |
| 6 |  Eastern Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 7 | UMass | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 |
| 8 |  Ohio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.0 | 75.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 |  Northern Illinois | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 79.4 | 73.2 | +6.2 |
| 10 |  Toledo | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 73.0 | 77.2 | -4.2 |
| 11 |  Kent State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 |
| 12 |  Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 |
| 13 |  Ball State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 68.8 | 72.5 | -3.8 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UMass Lowell | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.2 | 62.8 | +16.5 |
| 2 |  Binghamton | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 67.6 | 67.4 | +0.2 |
| 3 |  Vermont | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.5 | 65.2 | +13.2 |
| 4 |  UMBC Retrievers | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 70.4 | 73.8 | -3.4 |
| 5 |  Maine Black Bears | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 64.2 | 72.0 | -7.8 |
| 6 | Bryant University | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 60.2 | 71.8 | -11.6 |
| 7 |  NJIT | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 55.7 | 77.3 | -21.7 |
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