PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

USA W vs Japan W Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 29 Jul 2024
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 102-76
22-15 28-24 29-18 23-19
Position#1
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game94.0
Allowed / game54.7
USA W 🏆
vs
Japan W
Position#13
Record2-1
FormWLWLW
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game79.3
EuropeOlympic Games Women· Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Women2024
Meetings · USA W v Japan W
29 Jul 2024
USA 102
JAPA76
08 Aug 2021
USA 90
JAPA75
30 Jul 2021
USA 86
JAPA69
16 Aug 2016
USA 110
JAPA64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

USA W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Japan W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

USA WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Venezuela W
#8
W
80-54
80
54
+26
no box
H01/07
AmeriCup Women
Argentina W
#7
W
65-56
65
56
+9
no box
A02/07
AmeriCup Women
Brazil W
#1
L
54-67
54
67
-13
no box
H04/07
AmeriCup Women
Cuba W
#6
W
106-44
106
44
+62
no box
A05/07
AmeriCup Women
Colombia W
#5
W
68-49
68
49
+19
no box
H07/07
AmeriCup Women
Canada W
#2
W
67-63
67
63
+4
no box
A09/07
AmeriCup Women
Brazil W
#1
L
58-69
58
69
-11
no box
A10/07
AmeriCup Women
Belgium W
#7
W
81-79
81
79
+2
75avg 94
H08/02
Olympic Games Women
Nigeria W
#10
W
100-46
100
46
+54
105avg 94
A09/02
Olympic Games Women
Senegal W
#17
W
101-39
101
39
+62
103avg 94
A11/02
Olympic Games Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-5
26-11
20-14
14-24
19-18
14-11
16-11
16-16
12-15
13-20
14-14
15-18
27-14
33-4
23-10
23-16
23-11
20-18
10-12
15-8
22-17
17-12
15-21
13-13
16-14
21-21
10-25
11-9
15-19
19-24
23-23
24-13
19-13
32-7
24-15
25-11
29-15
21-8
26-9
25-7
134.6Avg total
78.0Scored
56.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)94.054.7148.7+39.3100%
Season at home (1)81.079.0160.0+2.0100%
Season away (2)100.542.5143.0+58.0100%
Last 10 (10)78.056.6134.6+21.480%
Last 5 (5)81.459.2140.6+22.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)67.063.0130.0+4.0100%
vs Similar (2)56.068.0124.0-12.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)89.658.9148.6+30.7100%
This opponent (Japan W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Japan WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
China W
#1
L
71-73
71
73
-2
no box
A02/07
Asia Cup Women
Hong Kong W
#7
W
118-46
118
46
+72
no box
H27/09
Asian Games Women
Kazakhstan W
#12
W
92-30
92
30
+62
no box
A29/09
Asian Games Women
Philippines W
#5
W
96-59
96
59
+37
no box
H01/10
Asian Games Women
Indonesia W
#9
W
89-47
89
47
+42
no box
A02/10
Asian Games Women
South Korea W
#3
W
81-58
81
58
+23
no box
H03/10
Asian Games Women
China W
#1
L
72-74
72
74
-2
no box
A05/10
Asian Games Women
Spain W
#4
W
86-75
86
75
+11
86avg 70
A08/02
Olympic Games Women
Hungary W
#11
L
75-81
75
81
-6
65avg 70
H09/02
Olympic Games Women
Canada W
#8
W
86-82
86
82
+4
76avg 70
A11/02
Olympic Games Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-17
18-9
16-22
20-25
32-12
39-16
29-8
18-10
25-12
26-9
25-3
16-6
35-14
15-12
16-13
30-20
25-15
20-12
22-9
22-11
20-15
20-18
16-11
25-14
16-26
24-19
11-12
21-17
26-18
20-18
23-21
17-18
22-13
10-19
16-21
27-28
20-20
30-26
20-21
16-15
149.1Avg total
86.6Scored
62.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)82.379.3161.7+3.067%
Season at home (1)75.081.0156.0-6.00%
Season away (2)86.078.5164.5+7.5100%
Last 10 (10)86.662.5149.1+24.170%
Last 5 (5)80.074.0154.0+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)76.577.4153.8-0.955%
vs Similar (2)58.568.0126.5-9.50%
vs Weaker (17)89.458.2147.6+31.288%
This opponent (USA W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +6.1+6.1Q1: +7.6+7.6Q2Q2: +8.0+8.0Q2: +6.4+6.4Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: +5.3+5.3Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: +4.8+4.8
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +6.1+6.1Q1: +7.6+7.6Q2Q2: +8.0+8.0Q2: +6.4+6.4Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: +5.3+5.3Q4Q4: +4.6+4.6Q4: +4.8+4.8
USA WJapan W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
USA WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Venezuela W
#8
W
46-16
46
16
+30
H01/07
AmeriCup Women
Argentina W
#7
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A02/07
AmeriCup Women
Brazil W
#1
L
25-35
25
35
-10
H04/07
AmeriCup Women
Cuba W
#6
W
60-18
60
18
+42
A05/07
AmeriCup Women
Colombia W
#5
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H07/07
AmeriCup Women
Canada W
#2
W
39-29
39
29
+10
A09/07
AmeriCup Women
Brazil W
#1
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A10/07
AmeriCup Women
Belgium W
#7
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H08/02
Olympic Games Women
Nigeria W
#10
W
51-20
51
20
+31
A09/02
Olympic Games Women
Senegal W
#17
W
50-23
50
23
+27
A11/02
Olympic Games Women
69.5Avg total
41.8Scored
27.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.430.075.5+15.487%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.631.175.7+13.580%-
Last 30 away (15)46.328.975.2+17.393%-
Last 10 (10)41.827.769.5+14.180%-
Last 5 (5)42.230.072.2+12.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)39.029.068.0+10.0100%-
vs Similar (2)31.035.066.0-4.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)46.729.776.4+17.089%-
This opponent (Japan W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Japan WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
China W
#1
W
35-26
35
26
+9
A02/07
Asia Cup Women
Hong Kong W
#7
W
71-28
71
28
+43
H27/09
Asian Games Women
Kazakhstan W
#12
W
51-21
51
21
+30
A29/09
Asian Games Women
Philippines W
#5
W
50-26
50
26
+24
H01/10
Asian Games Women
Indonesia W
#9
W
45-27
45
27
+18
A02/10
Asian Games Women
South Korea W
#3
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H03/10
Asian Games Women
China W
#1
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A05/10
Asian Games Women
Spain W
#4
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A08/02
Olympic Games Women
Hungary W
#11
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H09/02
Olympic Games Women
Canada W
#8
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A11/02
Olympic Games Women
78.0Avg total
46.0Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.634.075.7+7.663%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.833.174.9+8.760%-
Last 30 away (15)41.534.976.4+6.567%-
Last 10 (10)46.032.078.0+14.080%-
Last 5 (5)41.638.480.0+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)37.040.177.1-3.127%-
vs Similar (2)30.033.563.5-3.50%-
vs Weaker (17)46.030.276.2+15.894%-
This opponent (USA W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
USA Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

USA W: 77.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.3 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 70.9 points a game
52%
29%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.820.6
44.0%
45.1%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.56.1
31.3%
30.1%18.3
🏀 Free throws24.417.5
71.7%
74.5%17.5
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Japan Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Japan W: 84.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.5 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.5 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 70.9 points a game
52%
29%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.818.4
54.4%
45.1%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.112.5
38.9%
30.1%37.5
🏀 Free throws12.210.5
85.7%
74.5%10.5
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/8 games with a box score before 29 Jul 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
USA W
WWWLWWWLWW
Japan W
WLWLWWWWWL
#1
League position
#13
+27.4
Net rating
+24.4
101.5
Offensive rating
117.9
74.0
Defensive rating
93.6
44.9%
Effective FG%
56.4%
36.5%
Opp. effective FG%
46.4%
21.2%
Turnover %
13.8%
42.0%
Off. rebound %
27.0%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.19
31.3%
3-point %
38.9%
64.4%
Assist %
66.8%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence101.5 · 117.9Defence74.0 · 93.6Shooting44.9% · 56.4%3-point %31.3% · 38.9%Ball care21.2% · 13.8%Off. rebounds42.0% · 27.0%Free throws0.37 · 0.19Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ USA W   ■ Japan W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
USA W wins
0
Japan W wins
DateGameScore
08/08/21USA W v Japan W90-75
30/07/21USA W v Japan W86-69
16/08/16USA W v Japan W110-64
USA Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/02/24ASenegal W101-39
09/02/24ANigeria W100-46
08/02/24HBelgium W81-79
10/07/23ABrazil W58-69
09/07/23ACanada W67-63
07/07/23HColombia W68-49
05/07/23ACuba W106-44
04/07/23HBrazil W54-67
02/07/23AArgentina W65-56
01/07/23HVenezuela W80-54
Japan Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/02/24ACanada W86-82
09/02/24HHungary W75-81
08/02/24ASpain W86-75
05/10/23AChina W72-74
03/10/23HSouth Korea W81-58
02/10/23AIndonesia W89-47
01/10/23HPhilippines W96-59
29/09/23AKazakhstan W92-30
27/09/23HHong Kong W118-46
02/07/23AChina W71-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

USA W
Olympic Games Women 2024
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game94.081.0100.5
Allowed / game54.779.042.5
Point differential+39.3+2.0+58.0
Avg total148.7160.0143.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Japan W
Olympic Games Women 2024
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeL0%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%0%100%
Points / game82.375.086.0
Allowed / game79.381.078.5
Point differential+3.0-6.0+7.5
Avg total161.7156.0164.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 USA W330100%94.054.7+39.3
2 France W440100%84.845.8+39.0
3 Australia W43175%70.563.8+6.8
4 Spain W43175%74.575.5-1.0
5 Germany W43175%70.272.8-2.5
6 Japan W32167%82.379.3+3.0
7 Canada W74357%69.462.3+7.1
8 China W42250%84.572.0+12.5
9 Belgium W42250%80.872.8+8.0
10 Serbia W42250%67.267.0+0.2
11 Nigeria W42250%63.576.2-12.8
12 Puerto Rico W73443%63.775.9-12.1
13 Hungary W31233%69.371.7-2.3
14 Colombia W31233%69.774.0-4.3
15 Brazil W3030%63.768.3-4.7
16 Venezuela W3030%56.074.3-18.3
17 Senegal W3030%56.790.0-33.3
18 New Zealand W3030%51.085.7-34.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
USA W22282923102
Japan W1524181976
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.