UTEP hosts New Mexico State on 12 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UTEP the favourite with a 77% chance of winning, driven by their 1-1 record, 77.5 points per game and only 72.0 points allowed, and a perfect 1-0 home record with 79.0 points scored and 60.0 allowed. New Mexico State also sits at 1-1, but their 70.5 points per game are outscored by 87.5 points allowed, and their lone road game yielded only 68.0 points to 109.0 allowed. UTEP's last five games include a 79-60 victory over Incarnate Word at home, a 76-84 loss to Northern Kentucky away, and a 61-64 defeat to Jacksonville State at home, while New Mexico State's recent slate features a 68-109 loss to Gonzaga away, a 73-66 win over Western N. M. at home, and a 61-69 loss to Sam Houston St. away. Historically, the teams have met ten times, with UTEP winning four and New Mexico State six, the most recent contest ending 67-63 for New Mexico State. Pythia projects a 78-69 score, 147.3 total points, a home line of -3.0 with a 71% chance of covering, and a 61% probability of the over on the 142.5 line, with a 4% chance of overtime. The next game will decide whether UTEP can turn their home advantage into a decisive win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UTEP winWon
77.5%fair 1.29
Best odds1.47
Implied65.6%
Edge+11.9pp
New Mexico State winLost
22.5%fair 4.44
Best odds2.80
Implied34.4%
Edge-11.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UTEP) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 137.5Actual: Under 137.5
Over 137.5
72.2%
@ 1.47+8.8pp
Under 137.5
27.8%
@ 2.60-8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 142.5 · main lineActual: Under 142.5
Over 142.5
61.0%
@ 1.90+10.4pp
Under 142.5
39.0%
@ 1.93-10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Under 147.5
Over 147.5
49.0%
@ 2.60+12.3pp
Under 147.5
51.0%
@ 1.47-12.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
UTEP total 68.5Actual: UTEP under 68.5
Over 68.5
no forecast
@ 1.33
Under 68.5
no forecast
@ 3.10
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.90
UTEP total 73 · main lineActual: UTEP under 73
Over 73
69.5%
@ 1.85+19.2pp
Under 73
30.5%
@ 1.87-19.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
UTEP total 77Actual: UTEP under 77
Over 77
53.8%
Under 77
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New Mexico State total 66Actual: New Mexico State under 66
Over 66
62.9%
Under 66
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
New Mexico State total 70 · main lineActual: New Mexico State under 70
Over 70
46.9%
@ 1.87-2.8pp
Under 70
53.1%
@ 1.85+2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
New Mexico State total 74Actual: New Mexico State under 74
Over 74
31.6%
Under 74
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UTEP -8Actual: New Mexico State +8
UTEP -8
52.2%
@ 2.60+16.4pp
NEW +8
47.8%
@ 1.45-16.4pp
Best 5 market prices
UTEP
Bet365
2.60
NEW
Bet365
1.45
Spread UTEP -5 · main lineActual: New Mexico State +5
UTEP -5
63.8%
@ 2.00+12.8pp
NEW +5
36.2%
@ 1.96-12.8pp
Best 5 market prices
UTEP
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
NEW
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.71
Spread UTEP -2Push
UTEP -2
74.3%
@ 1.70+17.9pp
NEW +2
25.7%
@ 2.20-17.9pp
Best 5 market prices
UTEP
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
NEW
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.10
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UTEPNew Mexico State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UTEP over 71.5
73.9%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
UTEP -1
76.9%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
UTEP -2
74.3%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Push
UTEP over 72.5
70.6%
1.78
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.67
+17.8pp
Lost
UTEP -2.5
71.5%
1.72
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
BetVictor
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.72
+17.1pp
Lost
UTEP -1.5
75.2%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.50
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
UTEP +1
79.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
UTEP +2
81.7%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
UTEP +5.5
88.0%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Won
UTEP +3
83.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
UTEP +4.5
86.2%
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
UTEP (regulation)
75.1%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Marathon Bet
1.46
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
UTEP +4
85.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
UTEP +1.5
79.4%
1.41
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
UTEP +2.5
82.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
UTEP +3.5
84.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
UTEP win
77.5%
1.44
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
SBO
1.45
1xBet
1.45
+11.9pp
Won
UTEP -3
70.7%
1.75
SBO
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.61
-
+11.2pp
Lost
UTEP +6.5
89.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Over 138.5
70.0%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Over 138
71.6%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Over 137.5
72.2%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Over 137
73.6%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Lost
Over 136.5
74.2%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Lost
Over 136
75.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Lost
Over 135.5
76.1%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
UTEP +10.5
94.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Over 135
77.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Lost
UTEP +15.5
97.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Over 134.5
78.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Lost
Overtime: no
96.0%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Over 132.5
81.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
UTEP +20.5
98.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Over 122.5
93.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Over 127.5
88.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
New Mexico State over 53.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
New Mexico State over 51.5
96.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
New Mexico State over 52.5
95.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
New Mexico State over 55.5
91.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
New Mexico State over 54.5
92.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
New Mexico State +24.5
91.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
New Mexico State under 75.5
72.8%
1.28
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
New Mexico State over 56.5
89.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
New Mexico State over 57.5
87.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
New Mexico State under 76.5
75.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
New Mexico State under 78.5
81.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
New Mexico State over 63.5
71.4%
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.29
-
-
+0.3pp
Lost
New Mexico State over 60.5
80.6%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Lost
New Mexico State over 59.5
83.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
New Mexico State over 61.5
77.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-0.0pp
Lost
New Mexico State under 80.5
85.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
UTEP under 92.5
92.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
New Mexico State over 58.5
85.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Lost
New Mexico State over 62.5
74.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Lost
New Mexico State under 79.5
83.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
New Mexico State under 77.5
78.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
UTEP under 90.5
89.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 167.5
89.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
New Mexico State +19.5
83.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
UTEP under 88.5
85.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Under 162.5
82.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
New Mexico State +14.5
70.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
UTEP under 86.5
80.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Under 157.5
73.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
UTEP under 84.5
74.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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