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Welcome vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 66-91
21-17 18-28 12-21 15-25
Position#12
Record0-8
FormLLLLL
Points / game75.5
Allowed / game97.1
vs
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
Position#3
Record4-3
FormWLLWW
Points / game79.3
Allowed / game74.7
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Gimnasio Óscar Magurno
Other2024-25
Meetings · Welcome v Penarol
03 Nov 2025
WELC80
PENA102
11 Dec 2024
WELC66
PENA91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Welcome winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Urunday
#7
W
91-89
91
89
+2
no box
A09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Olimpia Kings
#4
L
77-87
77
87
-10
no box
H12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
L
75-95
75
95
-20
58avg 63
A26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
69-99
69
99
-30
57avg 63
A28/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
64-115
64
115
-51
49avg 63
A01/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
82-105
82
105
-23
69avg 63
H05/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
60-86
60
86
-26
41avg 63
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
L
66-74
66
74
-8
50avg 63
H16/11
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
L
77-83
77
83
-6
69avg 63
A02/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
111-120 OT
111
120
-9
107avg 63
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-29
23-17
22-17
25-26
28-21
12-22
24-19
13-25
14-30
25-27
18-19
18-19
20-25
16-30
15-22
18-22
14-34
14-32
23-20
13-29
22-27
5-30
28-23
27-25
11-23
10-28
12-22
27-13
18-23
24-13
13-16
11-22
18-16
21-19
19-26
19-22
24-22
15-26
27-18
28-28
172.5Avg total
77.2Scored
95.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)75.597.1172.6-21.60%
Season at home (4)79.896.2176.0-16.50%
Season away (4)71.298.0169.2-26.80%
Last 10 (10)77.295.3172.5-18.110%
Last 5 (5)79.293.6172.8-14.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)77.291.0168.2-13.78%
vs Similar (1)77.083.0160.0-6.00%
vs Weaker (4)91.084.5175.5+6.5100%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Aguada
#1
W
95-78
95
78
+17
85avg 75
H11/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
74-88
74
88
-14
65avg 75
A15/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
71-88
71
88
-17
58avg 75
H18/06
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
71-78
71
78
-7
60avg 75
H25/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
86-77 OT
86
77
+9
82avg 75
H28/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
77-73
77
73
+4
67avg 75
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
73-75
73
75
-2
67avg 75
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
78-80
78
80
-2
76avg 75
A13/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
94-67
94
67
+27
97avg 75
H02/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
76-73
76
73
+3
67avg 75
H06/12
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-29
23-19
24-18
25-12
21-25
19-26
19-14
15-23
18-10
22-35
19-16
12-27
12-22
22-20
25-15
12-21
24-10
20-24
20-14
7-23
21-17
23-24
18-18
15-14
17-15
28-7
10-25
18-28
21-19
21-21
17-24
19-16
22-15
25-17
23-21
24-14
23-24
19-17
22-16
12-16
157.2Avg total
79.5Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)79.374.7154.0+4.657%
Season at home (5)80.873.6154.4+7.280%
Season away (2)75.577.5153.0-2.00%
Last 10 (10)79.577.7157.2+1.850%
Last 5 (5)79.673.6153.2+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)78.080.0158.0-2.00%
vs Similar (11)78.080.8158.8-2.827%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)84.973.9158.9+11.078%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -6.0-6.0Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -7.9-7.9Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: -3.5-3.5
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -6.0-6.0Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -7.9-7.9Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: -3.5-3.5
WelcomePenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urunday
#7
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Olimpia Kings
#4
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
L
39-57
39
57
-18
A26/10
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
36-55
36
55
-19
A28/10
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
28-66
28
66
-38
A01/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
L
27-57
27
57
-30
H05/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
21-51
21
51
-30
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H16/11
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A02/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
84.9Avg total
35.5Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)36.544.981.3-8.428%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.643.879.4-8.220%-
Last 30 away (14)37.446.083.4-8.636%-
Last 10 (10)35.549.484.9-13.920%-
Last 5 (5)33.645.479.0-11.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)35.345.781.0-10.420%-
vs Similar (1)39.035.074.0+4.0100%-
vs Weaker (3)45.341.086.3+4.367%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aguada
#1
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H11/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A15/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H18/06
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H25/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H28/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
45-22
45
22
+23
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A13/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H02/12
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H06/12
Liga Uruguaya
82.0Avg total
42.4Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.839.081.8+3.757%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.938.880.8+3.150%-
Last 30 away (12)44.039.383.3+4.767%-
Last 10 (10)42.439.682.0+2.860%-
Last 5 (5)44.035.279.2+8.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)42.040.082.0+2.0100%-
vs Similar (11)40.539.880.3+0.636%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)44.238.582.7+5.767%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 75.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.619.9
50.2%
51.5%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.27.5
25.6%
33.0%22.5
🏀 Free throws17.612.8
72.3%
71.7%12.8
They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 78.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.120.0
53.9%
51.5%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.88.6
29.9%
33.0%25.8
🏀 Free throws18.213.1
72.0%
71.7%13.1
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 8/10 games with a box score before 11 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Welcome
LLLLLLLLLW
Penarol
WWLLWWLLLW
#12
League position
#3
-26.9
Net rating
+3.2
93.3
Offensive rating
106.1
120.2
Defensive rating
102.9
45.2%
Effective FG%
49.9%
57.2%
Opp. effective FG%
48.2%
19.5%
Turnover %
16.4%
27.1%
Off. rebound %
31.3%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.28
25.6%
3-point %
29.9%
48.4%
Assist %
59.8%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence93.3 · 106.1Defence120.2 · 102.9Shooting45.2% · 49.9%3-point %25.6% · 29.9%Ball care19.5% · 16.4%Off. rebounds27.1% · 31.3%Free throws0.26 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)10% · 50%
■ Welcome   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Welcome wins
0
Penarol wins
No previous meetings.
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/12/24HDefensor111-120 OT
02/12/24ATrouville77-83
16/11/24HUrunday66-74
10/11/24HMalvin60-86
05/11/24HHebraica y Macabi82-105
01/11/24ANacional64-115
28/10/24ABigua69-99
26/10/24ACordon75-95
12/02/19HOlimpia Kings77-87
09/02/19AUrunday91-89
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/12/24HBigua76-73
02/12/24HUrunday94-67
13/11/24ANacional78-80
07/11/24AMalvin73-75
31/10/24HCordon77-73
28/10/24HAguada86-77 OT
25/10/24HUrupan71-78
18/06/24HAguada71-88
15/06/24AAguada74-88
11/06/24HAguada95-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLLL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game75.579.871.2
Allowed / game97.196.298.0
Point differential-21.6-16.5-26.8
Avg total172.6176.0169.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %12%25%0%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW57%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games752
Win %57%80%0%
Points / game79.380.875.5
Allowed / game74.773.677.5
Point differential+4.6+7.2-2.0
Avg total154.0154.4153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)100% (2)0% (2)
Overtime %14%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional660100%92.574.0+18.5
2 Aguada86275%90.279.8+10.5
3 Malvin86275%79.274.9+4.4
4 Hebraica y Macabi85362%87.586.0+1.5
5 Penarol74357%79.374.7+4.6
6 Defensor63350%91.086.0+5.0
7 Cordon84450%87.186.2+0.9
8 Urunday84450%77.680.1-2.5
9 Bigua83538%81.284.8-3.5
10 Trouville72529%75.082.9-7.9
11 Urupan82625%78.983.2-4.4
12 Welcome8080%75.597.1-21.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Welcome2118121566
Penarol1728212591
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