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Nacional vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 13 Nov 2024
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 80-78
19-21 21-21 24-17 16-19
Position#1
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game95.0
Allowed / game67.0
vs
Position#3
Record2-2
FormLLWWL
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game75.8
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Polideportivo Gran Parque Central
Other2024-25
Meetings · Nacional v Penarol
22 Apr 2026
NACI82
PENA84
13 Oct 2025
NACI62
PENA87
10 Mar 2025
NACI90
PENA72
12 Nov 2024
NACI80
PENA78
05 Apr 2024
NACI94
PENA78
12 Dec 2023
NACI77
PENA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Cordon
#10
W
72-66
72
66
+6
65avg 78
A03/05
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
81-68
81
68
+13
74avg 78
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
78-66 OT
78
66
+12
74avg 78
A10/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
101-115
101
115
-14
94avg 78
A15/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
98-89
98
89
+9
92avg 78
H18/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
87-92
87
92
-5
76avg 78
A21/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
82-97
82
97
-15
71avg 78
H25/05
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
115-64
115
64
+51
120avg 78
H01/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
84-67
84
67
+17
74avg 78
H05/11
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
86-70
86
70
+16
80avg 78
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-18
19-17
12-17
19-14
26-22
23-25
18-11
14-10
11-12
24-21
16-14
12-16
25-26
20-29
19-32
37-28
27-26
22-22
25-22
24-19
15-25
29-26
16-22
27-19
28-26
18-25
17-26
19-20
34-14
32-14
20-23
29-13
27-18
17-15
26-15
14-19
26-11
26-18
13-24
21-17
167.8Avg total
88.4Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)95.067.0162.0+28.0100%
Season at home (2)99.565.5165.0+34.0100%
Season away (1)86.070.0156.0+16.0100%
Last 10 (10)88.479.4167.8+9.070%
Last 5 (5)90.878.0168.8+12.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)84.085.8169.8-1.850%
vs Similar (12)83.885.5169.2-1.833%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)78.272.4150.6+5.964%
This opponent (Penarol) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Defensor
#4
W
103-66
103
66
+37
110avg 74
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
65-66
65
66
-1
51avg 74
H03/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
90-97
90
97
-7
79avg 74
A07/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
95-78
95
78
+17
85avg 74
H11/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
74-88
74
88
-14
65avg 74
A15/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
71-88
71
88
-17
58avg 74
H18/06
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
71-78
71
78
-7
60avg 74
H25/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
86-77 OT
86
77
+9
82avg 74
H28/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
77-73
77
73
+4
67avg 74
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
73-75
73
75
-2
67avg 74
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-14
21-20
24-23
28-9
26-17
11-9
16-28
12-12
23-32
25-21
24-18
18-26
23-29
23-19
24-18
25-12
21-25
19-26
19-14
15-23
18-10
22-35
19-16
12-27
12-22
22-20
25-15
12-21
24-10
20-24
20-14
7-23
21-17
23-24
18-18
15-14
17-15
28-7
10-25
18-28
159.1Avg total
80.5Scored
78.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)76.875.8152.5+1.050%
Season at home (3)78.076.0154.0+2.067%
Season away (1)73.075.0148.0-2.00%
Last 10 (10)80.578.6159.1+1.940%
Last 5 (5)75.678.2153.8-2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (12)78.179.8157.8-1.733%
vs Weaker (18)82.173.3155.4+8.872%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.3+4.3Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: -3.3-3.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.3+4.3Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: +4.1+4.1Q4: -3.3-3.3
NacionalPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordon
#10
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A03/05
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
49-47
49
47
+2
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#10
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A10/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
45-55
45
55
-10
A15/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
49-48
49
48
+1
H18/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A21/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
46-51
46
51
-5
H25/05
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
66-28
66
28
+38
H01/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H05/11
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
52-29
52
29
+23
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
88.1Avg total
47.1Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.340.782.0+0.553%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.741.683.3+0.153%-
Last 30 away (15)40.839.980.7+0.953%-
Last 10 (10)47.141.088.1+6.170%-
Last 5 (5)50.438.488.8+12.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)38.244.082.2-5.80%-
vs Similar (12)42.043.685.6-1.650%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)41.537.478.9+4.171%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Defensor
#4
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H28/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H03/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
48-53
48
53
-5
A07/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H11/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A15/06
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#1
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H18/06
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H25/10
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H28/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H31/10
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
45-22
45
22
+23
A07/11
Liga Uruguaya
82.5Avg total
42.9Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.638.680.2+3.050%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.438.680.0+2.847%-
Last 30 away (13)41.838.680.5+3.254%-
Last 10 (10)42.939.682.5+3.350%-
Last 5 (5)41.436.878.2+4.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀no games
vs Similar (12)40.239.079.2+1.242%-
vs Weaker (18)42.538.380.8+4.256%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 87.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.820.7
52.0%
51.5%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.910.9
36.5%
33.0%32.7
🏀 Free throws19.413.5
69.6%
71.7%13.5
They take 69.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 79.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.520.2
53.9%
51.5%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.68.9
29.1%
33.0%26.7
🏀 Free throws17.312.8
74.0%
71.7%12.8
They take 68.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Nov 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nacional
WWWLLWLWWW
Penarol
LWWLLLWLLW
#1
League position
#3
+10.6
Net rating
+3.4
110.2
Offensive rating
108.0
99.7
Defensive rating
104.6
53.2%
Effective FG%
49.3%
48.2%
Opp. effective FG%
48.6%
13.4%
Turnover %
14.9%
24.6%
Off. rebound %
32.7%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.25
36.5%
3-point %
29.1%
61.1%
Assist %
56.7%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence110.2 · 108.0Defence99.7 · 104.6Shooting53.2% · 49.3%3-point %36.5% · 29.1%Ball care13.4% · 14.9%Off. rebounds24.6% · 32.7%Free throws0.28 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)70% · 40%
■ Nacional   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Nacional wins
2
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
23/04/24Penarol v Nacional63-67
06/04/24Nacional v Penarol94-78
07/02/24Penarol v Nacional79-68
13/12/23Nacional v Penarol77-97
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/24ATrouville86-70
05/11/24HMalvin84-67
01/11/24HWelcome115-64
25/05/24HAguada82-97
21/05/24AAguada87-92
18/05/24HAguada98-89
15/05/24AAguada101-115
10/05/24ACordon78-66 OT
06/05/24HCordon81-68
03/05/24ACordon72-66
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/24AMalvin73-75
31/10/24HCordon77-73
28/10/24HAguada86-77 OT
25/10/24HUrupan71-78
18/06/24HAguada71-88
15/06/24AAguada74-88
11/06/24HAguada95-78
07/06/24AAguada90-97
03/06/24HAguada65-66
28/05/24HDefensor103-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game95.099.586.0
Allowed / game67.065.570.0
Point differential+28.0+34.0+16.0
Avg total162.0165.0156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWL50%
HomeLWW67%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%67%0%
Points / game76.878.073.0
Allowed / game75.876.075.0
Point differential+1.0+2.0-2.0
Avg total152.5154.0148.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %25%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional330100%95.067.0+28.0
2 Hebraica y Macabi440100%94.584.0+10.5
3 Malvin54180%79.872.2+7.6
4 Cordon53260%89.082.6+6.4
5 Aguada53260%88.683.0+5.6
6 Penarol42250%76.875.8+1.0
7 Urunday42250%83.282.2+1.0
8 Bigua52340%78.683.2-4.6
9 Defensor31233%88.786.3+2.3
10 Trouville41325%74.582.0-7.5
11 Urupan51420%79.286.4-7.2
12 Welcome5050%70.0100.0-30.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nacional1921241680
Penarol2121171978
← all games of the day
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