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AEK Athens vs Szombathely Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 81-76
Projected total 156.6
Scheduled
Position#17
Record2-1
FormLLWLL
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game87.3
AEK Athens
Vs
65%
35%
■ AAT 65%■ SZO 35%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
3.9/10
Below normal
5.6/10
Above normal
Szombathely
Position#33
Record1-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game81.3
Allowed / game81.0
EuropeChampions League· SUNEL Arena
European cup2026
Meetings · AEK Athens v Szombathely
18 Nov 2026
AAT v SZO
upcoming
14 Dec 2021
AAT83
SZO89
Sections
Game preview & prediction

AEK Athens face Szombathely in the Basketball Champions League on 18 November 2026, with AEK arriving on a 2-1 run that includes a recent home loss to Panathinaikos 74-83, while Szombathely come off a 4-1 stretch that saw them beat Alba Fehervar 87-76 at home and Soproni KC 82-56 away. AEK's season record of 2-1 shows 81.0 points per game and 87.3 points allowed, with a 1-1 home record of 85.5 points scored and 98.0 allowed; Szombathely's 1-2 record yields 81.3 points scored and 81.0 allowed, and their sole away game produced 93.0 points for and 99.0 against. In their three meetings, Szombathely have won twice, most recently defeating AEK 72-66 on 4 November 2026. Pythia rates AEK as the favourite with a 65% chance of victory versus 35% for Szombathely, projecting a final score of 81-76 and a total of 156.6 points, with a 5% chance of overtime. The model also gives a 65% probability that AEK will cover the line, and a 55% probability that the total will go over. The game will hinge on whether AEK can turn its recent defensive lapses into a decisive edge.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEK Athens win
65.2%fair 1.53
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Szombathely win
34.8%fair 2.88
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AEK AthensLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAthens
Date
Competition
Maroussi
#11
W
91-70
91
70
+21
88avg 79
H03/10
Basket League
Salon Vilpas
#15
W
95-93
95
93
+2
95avg 79
H07/10
Champions League
Aris
#4
L
58-88
58
88
-30
47avg 79
A10/10
Basket League
Mykonos
#12
W
84-79
84
79
+5
83avg 79
H17/10
Basket League
Antwerp Giants
#12
L
76-103
76
103
-27
65avg 79
H21/10
Champions League
PAOK
#2
L
62-65
62
65
-3
59avg 79
A24/10
Basket League
Vikos
#13
L
84-95
84
95
-11
69avg 79
A31/10
Basket League
Szombathely
#33
W
72-66
72
66
+6
no box
A04/11
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#3
L
74-83
74
83
-9
no box
H08/11
Basket League
Lefkadas
#9
L
73-77
73
77
-4
no box
H14/11
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-12
28-22
18-16
27-20
24-24
25-20
17-27
29-22
10-23
11-19
14-22
23-24
22-17
25-21
18-21
19-20
25-25
25-23
12-28
14-27
15-20
14-5
15-22
18-18
16-20
27-26
17-25
24-24
18-17
20-10
16-21
18-18
19-14
21-23
15-21
19-25
13-27
24-18
22-15
14-17
158.8Avg total
76.9Scored
81.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)81.087.3168.3-6.367%
Season at home (2)85.598.0183.5-12.550%
Season away (1)72.066.0138.0+6.0100%
Last 10 (10)76.981.9158.8-5.040%
Last 5 (5)73.077.2150.2-4.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)74.786.3161.0-11.527%
vs Similar (13)82.281.8163.9+0.454%
vs Weaker (6)89.581.8171.3+7.783%
This opponent (Szombathely) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SzombathelyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSzombathely
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#12
L
93-99
93
99
-6
84avg 85
A07/10
Champions League
Szedeak
#9
W
96-65
96
65
+31
94avg 85
H10/10
NB I A
NKA Pecs
#14
W
106-78
106
78
+28
104avg 85
A16/10
NB I A
Salon Vilpas
#15
W
85-72
85
72
+13
73avg 85
H20/10
Champions League
KTE-Duna
#13
W
85-65
85
65
+20
81avg 85
H24/10
NB I A
Kormend
#10
W
105-79
105
79
+26
108avg 85
A28/10
NB I A
AEK Athens
#17
L
66-72
66
72
-6
no box
H04/11
Champions League
Soproni KC
#8
W
82-56
82
56
+26
no box
A07/11
NB I A
Alba Fehervar
#4
W
87-76
87
76
+11
no box
H11/11
NB I A
Budapesti Honved Se
#5
L
87-96
87
96
-9
no box
A14/11
NB I A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-34
22-20
26-22
22-23
21-17
28-17
21-21
26-10
30-23
20-22
25-12
31-21
23-21
23-21
16-14
23-16
25-18
25-23
14-13
21-11
24-20
31-18
28-25
22-16
17-18
10-20
21-16
18-18
26-11
20-22
23-12
13-11
27-14
17-24
23-11
20-27
22-31
28-28
25-18
12-19
165.0Avg total
89.2Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)81.381.0162.3+0.333%
Season at home (2)75.572.0147.5+3.550%
Season away (1)93.099.0192.0-6.00%
Last 10 (10)89.275.8165.0+13.470%
Last 5 (5)85.475.8161.2+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)87.397.3184.7-10.00%
vs Similar (8)84.580.9165.4+3.650%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)90.277.8168.0+12.484%
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%1%1151%1203%1254%1306%1358%14010%14512%15012%15511%16010%1658%1706%1753%1802%1851%1901%1950%200
1%1153%1256%13510%14512%15510%1656%1752%1851%195
Pythia expects about 157 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 155-159 (12%).
Over/Under 161
Over 161
39.2%
Under 161
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
28.7%
Under 166
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171
Over 171
19.8%
Under 171
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

AEK Athens total 80
Over 80
52.3%
Under 80
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens total 84
Over 84
37.4%
Under 84
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens total 88
Over 88
24.1%
Under 88
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Szombathely total 78
Over 78
41.8%
Under 78
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Szombathely total 82
Over 82
27.8%
Under 82
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Szombathely total 86
Over 86
16.7%
Under 86
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-301%-271%-241%-212%-183%-155%-126%-98%-69%-36%+010%+310%+69%+98%+126%+155%+184%+212%+242%+271%+301%+330%+36
1%-271%-213%-156%-99%-310%+39%+96%+154%+212%+271%+33
Margin from AEK Athens's side (positive = AEK Athens win). Pythia's expected margin is +4.6; AEK Athens win by 1+ in 58% of simulations.
Spread AEK Athens -3
AAT -3
57.2%
SZO +3
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
AAT
No market prices yet.
SZO
No market prices yet.
Spread AEK Athens 0
AAT 0
65.2%
SZO 0
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
AAT
No market prices yet.
SZO
No market prices yet.
Spread AEK Athens +3
AAT +3
73.1%
SZO -3
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
AAT
No market prices yet.
SZO
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +3.3+3.3Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -5.4-5.4Q3: +5.8+5.8Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: +3.6+3.6
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +3.3+3.3Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -5.4-5.4Q3: +5.8+5.8Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: +3.6+3.6
AEK AthensSzombathely
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AEK AthensLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maroussi
#11
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H03/10
Basket League
Salon Vilpas
#15
W
49-44
49
44
+5
H07/10
Champions League
Aris
#4
L
21-42
21
42
-21
A10/10
Basket League
Mykonos
#12
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H17/10
Basket League
Antwerp Giants
#12
W
50-48
50
48
+2
H21/10
Champions League
PAOK
#2
W
29-25
29
25
+4
A24/10
Basket League
Vikos
#13
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A31/10
Basket League
Szombathely
#33
W
38-27
38
27
+11
A04/11
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#3
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H08/11
Basket League
Lefkadas
#9
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H14/11
Basket League
78.6Avg total
40.0Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.141.182.3+0.050%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.941.984.9+1.053%-
Last 30 away (13)38.840.178.8-1.346%-
Last 10 (10)40.038.678.6+1.470%-
Last 5 (5)37.436.073.4+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)38.539.578.1-1.055%-
vs Similar (13)40.541.782.2-1.246%-
vs Weaker (6)47.242.890.0+4.350%-
This opponent (Szombathely) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SzombathelyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#12
L
45-54
45
54
-9
A07/10
Champions League
Szedeak
#9
W
49-34
49
34
+15
H10/10
NB I A
NKA Pecs
#14
W
50-45
50
45
+5
A16/10
NB I A
Salon Vilpas
#15
W
46-42
46
42
+4
H20/10
Champions League
KTE-Duna
#13
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H24/10
NB I A
Kormend
#10
W
55-38
55
38
+17
A28/10
NB I A
AEK Athens
#17
L
27-38
27
38
-11
H04/11
Champions League
Soproni KC
#8
W
46-33
46
33
+13
A07/11
NB I A
Alba Fehervar
#4
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H11/11
NB I A
Budapesti Honved Se
#5
L
50-59
50
59
-9
A14/11
NB I A
88.4Avg total
46.2Scored
42.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.641.787.3+3.960%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.639.285.8+7.480%-
Last 30 away (15)44.544.288.7+0.340%-
Last 10 (10)46.242.288.4+4.070%-
Last 5 (5)44.441.285.6+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)42.052.794.7-10.70%-
vs Similar (8)44.541.686.1+2.950%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)46.640.086.6+6.674%-
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AEK Athenstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Athens: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.8 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.621.0
53.0%
53.1%42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.07.3
33.2%
35.3%21.9
🏀 Free throws22.216.1
72.5%
72.1%16.1
They take 61.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Szombathelytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Szombathely: 95.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.2 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.8 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.622.4
55.2%
53.1%44.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.110.0
36.9%
35.3%30.0
🏀 Free throws25.220.2
80.2%
72.1%20.2
They take 67.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AEK Athens
LLWLLLWLWW
Szombathely
LWWLWWWWWL
#17
League position
#33
-9.2
Net rating
+24.2
93.6
Offensive rating
112.5
102.8
Defensive rating
88.3
51.9%
Effective FG%
55.2%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
48.7%
14.8%
Turnover %
9.3%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.37
33.2%
3-point %
36.9%
67.5%
Assist %
54.9%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence93.6 · 112.5Defence102.8 · 88.3Shooting51.9% · 55.2%3-point %33.2% · 36.9%Ball care14.8% · 9.3%Free throws0.36 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ AEK Athens   ■ Szombathely
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
AEK Athens wins
2
Szombathely wins
DateGameScore
04/11/26Szombathely v AEK Athens66-72
14/12/21AEK Athens v Szombathely83-89
06/10/21Szombathely v AEK Athens83-78
AEK Athenslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HLefkadas73-77
08/11/26HPanathinaikos74-83
04/11/26ASzombathely72-66
31/10/26AVikos84-95
24/10/26APAOK62-65
21/10/26HAntwerp Giants76-103
17/10/26HMykonos84-79
10/10/26AAris58-88
07/10/26HSalon Vilpas95-93
03/10/26HMaroussi91-70
Szombathelylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ABudapesti Honved Se87-96
11/11/26HAlba Fehervar87-76
07/11/26ASoproni KC82-56
04/11/26HAEK Athens66-72
28/10/26AKormend105-79
24/10/26HKTE-Duna85-65
20/10/26HSalon Vilpas85-72
16/10/26ANKA Pecs106-78
10/10/26HSzedeak96-65
07/10/26AAntwerp Giants93-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEK Athens
Champions League 2026
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWL50%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%50%100%
Points / game81.085.572.0
Allowed / game87.398.066.0
Point differential-6.3-12.5+6.0
Avg total168.3183.5138.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Szombathely
Champions League 2026
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeWL50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game81.375.593.0
Allowed / game81.072.099.0
Point differential+0.3+3.5-6.0
Avg total162.3147.5192.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Unicaja330100%94.374.3+20.0
2 Joventut Badalona330100%81.071.0+10.0
3 Peristeri440100%89.884.2+5.5
4 Murcia43175%85.267.8+17.5
5 Spartak Subotica43175%81.072.0+9.0
6 Alba Berlin43175%94.587.0+7.5
7 Bilbao43175%93.085.8+7.2
8 Rytas43175%86.582.2+4.2
9 Dziki Warszawa43175%103.299.2+4.0
10 Breogan32167%113.792.3+21.3
11 Strasbourg32167%90.771.7+19.0
12 Antwerp Giants32167%90.382.0+8.3
13 CSM Oradea32167%94.787.3+7.3
14 Bonn32167%84.379.7+4.7
15 Salon Vilpas64267%86.784.0+2.7
16 Legia32167%78.783.0-4.3
17 AEK Athens32167%81.087.3-6.3
18 Promitheas32167%86.392.7-6.3
19 Juventus32167%80.091.7-11.7
20 Vechta85362%87.086.8+0.2
21 Cholet42250%80.272.2+8.0
22 Korfez Basket21150%92.086.5+5.5
23 VEF Riga21150%100.095.0+5.0
24 Sabah Baku42250%83.583.5+0.0
25 Benfica21150%87.588.0-0.5
26 Trabzonspor42250%86.588.5-2.0
27 Igokea42250%81.083.8-2.8
28 Bakken Bears21150%80.584.0-3.5
29 Hapoel Holon42250%84.588.5-4.0
30 Batumi21150%81.589.0-7.5
31 Manchester Basketball21150%79.089.0-10.0
32 Reggiana31233%83.780.0+3.7
33 Szombathely31233%81.381.0+0.3
34 FC Porto31233%74.777.7-3.0
35 Galatasaray31233%77.084.0-7.0
36 Cibona31233%81.088.7-7.7
37 Varese41325%82.883.0-0.2
38 Nanterre41325%84.586.8-2.2
39 Fribourg Olympic1010%85.086.0-1.0
40 Wurzburg1010%73.074.0-1.0
41 Denizli Basket1010%98.0101.0-3.0
42 Levice1010%87.090.0-3.0
43 AEK Larnaca1010%87.095.0-8.0
44 Geneva Lions1010%78.087.0-9.0
45 Vienna Basket1010%82.092.0-10.0
46 Zwolle1010%78.089.0-11.0
47 Bnei Herzliya3030%79.391.0-11.7
48 Kolossos Rhodes1010%79.091.0-12.0
49 Pardubice3030%74.386.3-12.0
50 Slavia Prague ERA NBK4040%81.293.2-12.0
51 Absheron Lions1010%88.0105.0-17.0
52 Opava1010%99.0116.0-17.0
53 Bamberg4040%70.293.0-22.8
54 Rilski Sportist1010%80.0126.0-46.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 54 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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