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AEK Larnaca vs Rostock Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 18 Oct 2023
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 78-76
24-27 22-18 15-20 17-11
Position#22
Record-
FormWWLWW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
vs
Position#5
Record2-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game97.0
Allowed / game73.0
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 1· Kition Athletic Center
European cup2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEK Larnaca winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Rostock winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AEK LarnacaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLarnaca
Date
Competition
Anorthosis
#5
W
90-72
90
72
+18
no box
H22/04
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
84-83
84
83
+1
no box
A07/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
85-55
85
55
+30
no box
H10/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
L
87-96
87
96
-9
no box
A14/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
L
64-69
64
69
-5
no box
H17/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
72-70
72
70
+2
no box
A22/05
Division A
Levice
#47
W
74-66
74
66
+8
70avg 73
A25/09
Champions League
Benfica
#28
L
59-87
59
87
-28
48avg 73
A27/09
Champions League
AEL
#5
W
96-94 OT
96
94
+2
no box
A09/10
Division A
Achilleas K.
#10
W
93-71
93
71
+22
100avg 73
H14/10
Division A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-17
23-21
24-19
21-15
21-21
19-23
24-28
20-11
19-11
14-15
27-11
25-18
20-20
26-26
18-24
23-26
12-26
20-7
11-17
21-19
14-15
20-16
21-17
17-22
20-0
25-22
8-21
21-23
15-24
16-23
18-15
10-25
12-13
21-21
21-23
22-19
26-20
29-13
18-17
20-21
156.7Avg total
80.4Scored
76.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.476.3156.7+4.170%
Last 5 (5)78.877.6156.4+1.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)59.087.0146.0-28.00%
vs Similar (6)78.377.7156.0+0.750%
vs Weaker (22)85.266.5151.7+18.786%
This opponent (Rostock) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RostockLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRostock
Date
Competition
Alba Berlin
#2
L
79-104
79
104
-25
64avg 75
A23/04
BBL
Bayern
#3
L
76-108
76
108
-32
67avg 75
A26/04
BBL
Bayreuth
#18
W
99-70
99
70
+29
97avg 75
H30/04
BBL
Ulm
#4
L
86-116
86
116
-30
76avg 75
A05/05
BBL
Ludwigsburg
#6
W
92-87 OT
92
87
+5
no box
H07/05
BBL
Vechta
#5
L
76-84
76
84
-8
56avg 75
A23/09
German Cup
Crailsheim Merlins
#17
L
81-85
81
85
-4
68avg 75
A29/09
BBL
Heidelberg
#16
W
122-113 OT
122
113
+9
no box
H01/10
BBL
Feniks 2010
#52
W
101-72
101
72
+29
103avg 75
A04/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Keravnos
#38
W
93-74
93
74
+19
96avg 75
H05/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-22
21-29
15-28
18-25
13-25
16-32
28-24
19-27
23-12
22-19
33-20
21-19
29-29
17-22
18-30
22-35
14-12
28-26
17-27
20-14
20-24
19-18
15-21
22-21
23-19
12-20
23-25
23-21
19-25
26-22
27-34
21-12
22-16
25-15
26-21
28-20
22-15
26-19
17-24
28-16
181.8Avg total
90.5Scored
91.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)97.073.0170.0+24.0100%
Season at home (1)93.074.0167.0+19.0100%
Season away (1)101.072.0173.0+29.0100%
Last 10 (10)90.591.3181.8-0.850%
Last 5 (5)94.685.6180.2+9.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)77.391.1168.4-13.827%
vs Similar (12)83.984.7168.6-0.858%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)98.082.8180.8+15.283%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -3.5-3.5Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.2+1.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -3.5-3.5Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.2+1.2
AEK LarnacaRostock
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Anorthosis
#5
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H22/04
Division A
Keravnos
#1
L
40-44
40
44
-4
A07/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H10/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
D
46-46
46
46
+0
A14/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H17/05
Division A
Keravnos
#1
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A22/05
Division A
Levice
#47
W
45-22
45
22
+23
A25/09
Champions League
Benfica
#28
L
31-47
31
47
-16
A27/09
Champions League
AEL
#5
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A09/10
Division A
Achilleas K.
#10
W
55-33
55
33
+22
H14/10
Division A
74.8Avg total
39.4Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.634.576.1+7.167%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.933.178.1+11.886%-
Last 30 away (16)38.835.774.4+3.150%-
Last 10 (10)39.435.474.8+4.050%-
Last 5 (5)39.633.473.0+6.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)31.047.078.0-16.00%-
vs Similar (6)37.539.076.5-1.533%-
vs Weaker (22)43.133.376.4+9.877%-
This opponent (Rostock) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
RostockLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alba Berlin
#2
L
46-51
46
51
-5
A23/04
BBL
Bayern
#3
L
29-57
29
57
-28
A26/04
BBL
Bayreuth
#18
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H30/04
BBL
Ulm
#4
L
46-51
46
51
-5
A05/05
BBL
Ludwigsburg
#6
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H07/05
BBL
Vechta
#5
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A23/09
German Cup
Crailsheim Merlins
#17
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A29/09
BBL
Heidelberg
#16
L
45-47
45
47
-2
H01/10
BBL
Feniks 2010
#52
W
47-31
47
31
+16
A04/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Keravnos
#38
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H05/10
FIBA Europe Cup
84.3Avg total
42.2Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.941.682.5-0.647%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.940.681.5+0.257%-
Last 30 away (16)41.042.483.4-1.438%-
Last 10 (10)42.242.184.3+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)42.838.681.4+4.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)38.446.384.6-7.927%-
vs Similar (12)42.339.882.2+2.558%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)43.236.379.5+6.867%-
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AEK Larnacatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Larnaca: 68.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.0 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.516.5
44.0%
52.2%33.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.08.2
35.9%
33.8%24.8
🏀 Free throws13.510.2
75.9%
73.0%10.2
They take 60.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rostocktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Rostock: 83.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.0 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.217.6
50.0%
52.2%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.811.0
42.6%
33.8%33.0
🏀 Free throws19.815.0
75.8%
73.0%15.0
They take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/10 games with a box score before 18 Oct 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AEK Larnaca
WWLWWLLWWW
Rostock
WWWLLWLWLL
#22
League position
#5
-4.4
Net rating
-3.1
93.0
Offensive rating
112.4
97.5
Defensive rating
115.5
47.7%
Effective FG%
55.9%
45.5%
Opp. effective FG%
56.6%
21.6%
Turnover %
19.0%
26.1%
Off. rebound %
29.7%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.32
35.9%
3-point %
42.6%
62.6%
Assist %
65.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence93.0 · 112.4Defence97.5 · 115.5Shooting47.7% · 55.9%3-point %35.9% · 42.6%Ball care21.6% · 19.0%Off. rebounds26.1% · 29.7%Free throws0.22 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ AEK Larnaca   ■ Rostock
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
AEK Larnaca wins
0
Rostock wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/10/23HAchilleas K.93-71
09/10/23AAEL96-94 OT
27/09/23ABenfica59-87
25/09/23ALevice74-66
22/05/23AKeravnos72-70
17/05/23HKeravnos64-69
14/05/23AKeravnos87-96
10/05/23HKeravnos85-55
07/05/23AKeravnos84-83
22/04/23HAnorthosis90-72
Rostocklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/10/23HKeravnos93-74
04/10/23AFeniks 2010101-72
01/10/23HHeidelberg122-113 OT
29/09/23ACrailsheim Merlins81-85
23/09/23AVechta76-84
07/05/23HLudwigsburg92-87 OT
05/05/23AUlm86-116
30/04/23HBayreuth99-70
26/04/23ABayern76-108
23/04/23AAlba Berlin79-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEK Larnaca
FIBA Europe Cup 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Rostock
FIBA Europe Cup 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game97.093.0101.0
Allowed / game73.074.072.0
Point differential+24.0+19.0+29.0
Avg total170.0167.0173.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rostock220100%97.073.0+24.0
2 Bnei Herzliya220100%92.075.5+16.5
3 Jonava110100%104.088.0+16.0
4 Caledonia Gladiators110100%80.068.0+12.0
5 Basket Zaragoza220100%87.576.5+11.0
6 Manisa220100%89.079.0+10.0
7 Trepca220100%77.068.0+9.0
8 Sabah Baku330100%82.774.7+8.0
9 Rapid Bucuresti32167%75.770.7+5.0
10 FC Porto32167%83.078.3+4.7
11 Keravnos21150%90.576.5+14.0
12 Kataja21150%83.581.5+2.0
13 Boras21150%91.590.0+1.5
14 Tindastoll21150%69.069.5-0.5
15 Kormend21150%89.592.0-2.5
16 Chernomorets21150%97.0100.5-3.5
17 Jamtland21150%71.078.5-7.5
18 Donar Groningen31233%67.368.7-1.3
19 Pardubice2020%82.085.5-3.5
20 Norrkoping1010%71.079.0-8.0
21 Parnu2020%64.573.0-8.5
22 Rabotnicki3030%66.778.3-11.7
23 CSU Sibiu1010%68.080.0-12.0
24 Nevezis2020%86.099.0-13.0
25 Anorthosis2020%75.089.0-14.0
26 Karhu Basket1010%88.0104.0-16.0
27 Feniks 20102020%66.0104.0-38.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 27 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
AEK Larnaca2422151778
Rostock2718201176
← all games of the day
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