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Penarol vs Aguada Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 18 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 103-95
24-17 34-21 24-25 21-32
Position#1
Record22-6
FormWWWLL
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game75.0
Penarol 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Aguada
Uruguay
Position#3
Record20-8
FormWWWLW
Points / game91.9
Allowed / game86.0
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2025-26
Meetings · Penarol v Aguada
11 Nov 2026
PENA v AGUA
upcoming
19 Jun 2026
PENA80
AGUA71
09 Jun 2026
PENA89
AGUA84
03 Jun 2026
PENA99
AGUA82
17 Apr 2026
PENA103
AGUA95
07 Nov 2025
PENA103
AGUA89
17 Mar 2025
PENA78
AGUA85
28 Oct 2024
PENA86
AGUA77
17 Jun 2024
PENA71
AGUA88
10 Jun 2024
PENA95
AGUA78
02 Jun 2024
PENA65
AGUA66
18 Mar 2024
PENA81
AGUA82
15 Jan 2024
PENA88
AGUA87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aguada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
W
95-76
95
76
+19
98avg 85
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
84-81
84
81
+3
82avg 85
A04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
98-76
98
76
+22
94avg 85
H09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
100-83
100
83
+17
100avg 85
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
80-86
80
86
-6
68avg 85
A10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
88-80
88
80
+8
79avg 85
H13/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
96-67
96
67
+29
96avg 85
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
97-87 OT
97
87
+10
101avg 85
A26/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
71-78
71
78
-7
66avg 85
H09/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
84-92 OT
84
92
-8
78avg 85
A11/04
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-15
28-15
17-19
24-27
24-24
24-18
22-13
14-26
31-19
18-22
19-15
30-20
23-28
23-21
28-19
26-15
20-22
19-30
25-14
16-20
20-25
23-20
20-18
25-17
19-17
25-15
26-20
26-15
20-23
22-16
17-23
22-19
20-17
17-25
16-20
18-16
24-16
23-21
10-26
19-13
169.9Avg total
89.3Scored
80.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)87.575.0162.5+12.479%
Season at home (13)90.275.6165.8+14.592%
Season away (15)85.174.5159.7+10.667%
Last 10 (10)89.380.6169.9+8.770%
Last 5 (5)87.280.8168.0+6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)87.376.0163.4+11.373%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
W
70-64
70
64
+6
63avg 83
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
90-76
90
76
+14
87avg 83
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
85-80
85
80
+5
77avg 83
H16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
92-98
92
98
-6
80avg 83
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
86-80
86
80
+6
82avg 83
H10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
97-77
97
77
+20
92avg 83
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
97-81
97
81
+16
94avg 83
H20/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
88-64
88
64
+24
87avg 83
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
82-101
82
101
-19
96avg 83
A12/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
102-100
102
100
+2
104avg 83
H15/04
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-10
18-21
26-9
15-24
25-16
19-20
25-15
21-25
27-22
24-23
14-19
20-16
29-35
27-23
17-22
19-18
22-20
30-19
14-25
20-16
24-26
22-15
20-21
31-15
22-18
26-24
21-14
28-25
26-20
21-13
23-14
18-17
29-31
12-21
22-23
19-26
31-27
35-22
19-23
17-28
171.0Avg total
88.9Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)91.986.0177.9+6.071%
Season at home (15)94.982.5177.3+12.4100%
Season away (13)88.590.0178.5-1.538%
Last 10 (10)88.982.1171.0+6.880%
Last 5 (5)93.284.6177.8+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)79.190.6169.7-11.536%
vs Similar (4)95.292.2187.5+3.075%
vs Weaker (15)91.181.6172.7+9.573%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -0.2-0.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -0.2-0.2
PenarolAguada
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
W
54-30
54
30
+24
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
46-49
46
49
-3
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H13/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A26/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H09/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A11/04
Liga Uruguaya
85.8Avg total
44.9Scored
40.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.039.083.9+6.063%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.338.884.1+6.564%-
Last 30 away (16)44.739.183.8+5.662%-
Last 10 (10)44.940.985.8+4.060%-
Last 5 (5)42.639.081.6+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)45.039.083.9+6.063%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
56-58
56
58
-2
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
48-42
48
42
+6
H20/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A12/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
66-49
66
49
+17
H15/04
Liga Uruguaya
90.6Avg total
48.0Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.844.390.1+1.560%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.542.689.1+3.969%-
Last 30 away (14)45.146.291.3-1.150%-
Last 10 (10)48.042.690.6+5.470%-
Last 5 (5)49.643.493.0+6.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)41.545.587.1-4.036%-
vs Similar (4)48.244.893.0+3.575%-
vs Weaker (15)48.343.391.6+5.173%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 89.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.823.2
59.8%
53.3%46.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.410.1
34.4%
33.3%30.3
🏀 Free throws18.812.6
67.0%
70.9%12.6
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 86.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.319.1
52.6%
53.3%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.510.4
39.2%
33.3%31.2
🏀 Free throws22.317.1
76.7%
70.9%17.1
They take 62.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
LLWWWLWWWW
Aguada
WLWWWWLWWW
#1
League position
#3
+9.7
Net rating
+7.6
99.4
Offensive rating
99.2
89.7
Defensive rating
91.6
56.2%
Effective FG%
55.3%
49.6%
Opp. effective FG%
46.2%
15.7%
Turnover %
13.5%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.36
34.4%
3-point %
39.2%
64.3%
Assist %
65.8%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence99.4 · 99.2Defence89.7 · 91.6Shooting56.2% · 55.3%3-point %34.4% · 39.2%Ball care15.7% · 13.5%Free throws0.28 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)70% · 80%
■ Penarol   ■ Aguada
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Penarol wins
7
Aguada wins
DateGameScore
10/03/26Aguada v Penarol86-80
27/01/26Aguada v Penarol91-80
08/11/25Penarol v Aguada103-89
17/03/25Penarol v Aguada78-85
15/01/25Aguada v Penarol77-69
28/10/24Penarol v Aguada86-77 OT
18/06/24Penarol v Aguada71-88
15/06/24Aguada v Penarol88-74
11/06/24Penarol v Aguada95-78
07/06/24Aguada v Penarol97-90
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/04/26ADefensor84-92 OT
09/04/26HNacional71-78
26/03/26AHebraica y Macabi97-87 OT
19/03/26AMalvin96-67
13/03/26HDefensor88-80
10/03/26AAguada80-86
19/02/26AUrunday100-83
09/02/26HBigua98-76
04/02/26ADefensor84-81
30/01/26HGoes95-76
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/04/26HHebraica y Macabi102-100
12/04/26ANacional82-101
27/03/26HMalvin88-64
20/03/26HDefensor97-81
16/03/26AHebraica y Macabi97-77
10/03/26HPenarol86-80
19/02/26ADefensor92-98
16/02/26HHebraica y Macabi85-80
13/02/26HUnion Atletica90-76
10/02/26HGoes70-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL79%
HomeWWWWL92%
AwayWLWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281315
Win %79%92%67%
Points / game87.590.285.1
Allowed / game75.075.674.5
Point differential+12.4+14.5+10.6
Avg total162.5165.8159.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+68%77%60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %7%0%13%
Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW71%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLLWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281513
Win %71%100%38%
Points / game91.994.988.5
Allowed / game86.082.590.0
Point differential+6.0+12.4-1.5
Avg total177.9177.3178.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%60%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)100% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol2822679%87.575.0+12.4
2 Aguada2820871%91.986.0+6.0
3 Nacional2819968%91.481.7+9.7
4 Malvin30181260%80.681.5-0.9
5 Bigua28161257%89.087.2+1.7
6 Hebraica y Macabi30161453%84.584.6-0.2
7 Union Atletica28141450%83.582.6+0.9
8 Urunday27131448%89.385.3+4.0
9 Defensor30141647%85.285.2+0.0
10 Goes2791833%83.789.1-5.4
11 Cordon2852318%80.894.4-13.6
12 Welcome2842414%81.195.8-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol24342421103
Aguada1721253295
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