PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Aguada vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 21 May 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 89-109
26-24 31-28 14-32 18-25
Position#3
Record25-11
FormWWWWW
Points / game90.6
Allowed / game85.9
vs
Position#2
Record25-11
FormWWWWL
Points / game91.8
Allowed / game82.5
UruguayLiga UruguayaLiga Uruguaya - Semi-finals· Aguada
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aguada v Nacional
28 May 2026
AGUA92
NACI91
21 May 2026
AGUA89
NACI109
25 Apr 2026
AGUA94
NACI98
20 Dec 2025
AGUA98
NACI94
30 May 2025
AGUA96
NACI97
25 May 2025
AGUA80
NACI72
19 May 2025
AGUA84
NACI75
13 Mar 2025
AGUA99
NACI81
13 Dec 2024
AGUA88
NACI90
21 May 2024
AGUA92
NACI87
14 May 2024
AGUA115
NACI101
23 Mar 2024
AGUA103
NACI89
18 Jan 2024
AGUA105
NACI111
12 Dec 2022
AGUA91
NACI71
19 Apr 2022
AGUA80
NACI65
06 Apr 2022
AGUA93
NACI72
17 Nov 2021
AGUA78
NACI58
10 Apr 2021
AGUA84
NACI80
12 Feb 2021
AGUA72
NACI85
01 Dec 2020
AGUA20
NACI0
24 Jan 2020
AGUA87
NACI67
03 May 2019
AGUA78
NACI86
25 Apr 2019
AGUA69
NACI75
11 Mar 2019
AGUA123
NACI117
18 Jan 2019
AGUA96
NACI90
04 May 2018
AGUA84
NACI77
26 Apr 2018
AGUA81
NACI91
19 Apr 2018
AGUA76
NACI81
26 Mar 2018
AGUA70
NACI68
10 Nov 2017
AGUA86
NACI78
16 Oct 2013
AGUA81
NACI61
28 Sep 2012
AGUA94
NACI86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nacional
#2
L
82-101
82
101
-19
A12/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
102-100
102
100
+2
H15/04
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
95-103
95
103
-8
A18/04
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
94-98
94
98
-4
H26/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
60-88
60
88
-28
A29/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
94-84 OT
94
84
+10
A03/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
78-73
78
73
+5
A07/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
84-74
84
74
+10
H09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
85-81
85
81
+4
A13/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
96-83
96
83
+13
A19/05
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-31
12-21
22-23
19-26
31-27
35-22
19-23
17-28
17-24
21-34
25-24
32-21
18-21
17-29
25-25
34-23
18-25
14-26
16-24
12-13
17-22
17-19
21-24
26-16
23-17
15-23
20-17
20-16
27-20
23-17
23-21
11-16
21-19
20-35
18-13
26-14
27-25
30-21
21-21
18-16
175.5Avg total
87.0Scored
88.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (36)90.685.9176.4+4.769%
Season at home (17)94.282.9177.1+11.394%
Season away (19)87.388.5175.8-1.247%
Last 10 (10)87.088.5175.5-1.560%
Last 5 (5)87.479.0166.4+8.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)83.792.1175.8-8.445%
vs Similar (3)96.387.3183.7+9.0100%
vs Weaker (16)86.181.3167.4+4.875%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Franca
#4
L
71-83
71
83
-12
H17/04
Champions League Americas
Flamengo
#7
W
94-65
94
65
+29
H18/04
Champions League Americas
Penarol
#1
L
82-84
82
84
-2
H23/04
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
98-94
98
94
+4
A26/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
81-79
81
79
+2
H29/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
97-73
97
73
+24
H03/05
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
98-95
98
95
+3
H05/05
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
105-82
105
82
+23
A09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
100-78
100
78
+22
H11/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
83-96
83
96
-13
H19/05
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-29
22-17
21-18
12-19
23-16
31-10
22-17
18-22
20-23
19-20
15-21
28-20
21-18
29-17
25-25
23-34
20-13
16-19
20-19
25-28
29-18
24-23
32-18
12-14
22-27
33-18
24-30
19-20
30-29
32-19
18-17
25-17
27-25
12-9
26-19
35-25
25-27
21-30
21-21
16-18
173.8Avg total
90.9Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (36)91.882.5174.2+9.369%
Season at home (19)92.478.7171.2+13.779%
Season away (17)91.186.6177.7+4.459%
Last 10 (10)90.982.9173.8+8.070%
Last 5 (5)96.684.8181.4+11.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)80.077.5157.5+2.550%
vs Similar (1)71.083.0154.0-12.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)92.781.0173.6+11.778%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: -4.3-4.3Q2: +5.7+5.7Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: -0.4-0.4
AguadaNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nacional
#2
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A12/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
66-49
66
49
+17
H15/04
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
38-58
38
58
-20
A18/04
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
35-50
35
50
-15
H26/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
32-51
32
51
-19
A29/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A03/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A07/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
50-37
50
37
+13
H09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
41-54
41
54
-13
A13/05
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
57-46
57
46
+11
A19/05
Liga Uruguaya
91.0Avg total
43.2Scored
47.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.545.289.7-0.753%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.742.688.3+3.171%-
Last 30 away (16)43.447.490.9-4.038%-
Last 10 (10)43.247.891.0-4.630%-
Last 5 (5)44.043.687.6+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)42.747.590.3-4.845%-
vs Similar (3)52.044.396.3+7.7100%-
vs Weaker (16)44.343.788.0+0.650%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Franca
#4
L
38-46
38
46
-8
H17/04
Champions League Americas
Flamengo
#7
W
54-26
54
26
+28
H18/04
Champions League Americas
Penarol
#1
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H23/04
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
W
50-35
50
35
+15
A26/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H29/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
53-41
53
41
+12
H03/05
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
55-45
55
45
+10
H05/05
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
62-48
62
48
+14
A09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H11/05
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
46-57
46
57
-11
H19/05
Liga Uruguaya
87.9Avg total
47.2Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.041.289.2+6.867%-
Last 30 at home (16)48.940.589.4+8.469%-
Last 30 away (14)47.042.189.1+4.964%-
Last 10 (10)47.240.787.9+6.570%-
Last 5 (5)51.045.096.0+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)40.540.080.5+0.550%-
vs Similar (1)38.046.084.0-8.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)48.941.190.1+7.870%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.819.3
52.4%
53.3%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.19.2
33.9%
33.3%27.6
🏀 Free throws23.418.4
78.6%
70.9%18.4
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.019.0
48.7%
53.3%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.611.3
36.9%
33.3%33.9
🏀 Free throws22.216.1
72.5%
70.9%16.1
They take 69.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
WWWWWLLLWL
Nacional
LWWWWWWLWL
#3
League position
#2
-1.9
Net rating
+4.6
95.2
Offensive rating
96.5
97.1
Defensive rating
91.9
51.8%
Effective FG%
51.7%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
49.9%
13.0%
Turnover %
14.8%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.32
33.9%
3-point %
36.9%
71.6%
Assist %
55.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence95.2 · 96.5Defence97.1 · 91.9Shooting51.8% · 51.7%3-point %33.9% · 36.9%Ball care13.0% · 14.8%Free throws0.37 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Aguada   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Aguada wins
6
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
19/05/26Nacional v Aguada83-96
26/04/26Aguada v Nacional94-98
12/04/26Nacional v Aguada101-82
21/12/25Aguada v Nacional98-94
21/10/25Nacional v Aguada82-79
02/06/25Nacional v Aguada79-77
31/05/25Aguada v Nacional96-97
28/05/25Nacional v Aguada103-98
26/05/25Aguada v Nacional80-72
23/05/25Nacional v Aguada73-82
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/05/26ANacional96-83
13/05/26AHebraica y Macabi85-81
09/05/26HHebraica y Macabi84-74
07/05/26AHebraica y Macabi78-73
03/05/26AMalvin94-84 OT
29/04/26ADefensor60-88
26/04/26HNacional94-98
18/04/26APenarol95-103
15/04/26HHebraica y Macabi102-100
12/04/26ANacional82-101
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/05/26HAguada83-96
11/05/26HBigua100-78
09/05/26ABigua105-82
05/05/26HBigua98-95
03/05/26HDefensor97-73
29/04/26HHebraica y Macabi81-79
26/04/26AAguada98-94
23/04/26HPenarol82-84
18/04/26HFlamengo94-65
17/04/26HFranca71-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW69%
HomeWWWLW94%
AwayLWWWW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games361719
Win %69%94%47%
Points / game90.694.287.3
Allowed / game85.982.988.5
Point differential+4.7+11.3-1.2
Avg total176.4177.1175.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%59%26%
Close games (≤5 pts) won70% (10)75% (4)67% (6)
Overtime %3%0%5%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL69%
HomeWWWWL79%
AwayWWWWW59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games361917
Win %69%79%59%
Points / game91.892.491.1
Allowed / game82.578.786.6
Point differential+9.3+13.7+4.4
Avg total174.2171.2177.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%63%41%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)60% (5)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol3630683%88.774.3+14.3
2 Nacional36251169%91.882.5+9.3
3 Aguada36251169%90.685.9+4.7
4 Malvin36191753%79.982.6-2.6
5 Bigua31161552%88.688.6+0.0
6 Union Atletica28141450%83.582.6+0.9
7 Defensor37181949%83.984.4-0.4
8 Hebraica y Macabi35161946%82.984.0-1.1
9 Urunday30131743%87.686.3+1.3
10 Goes2791833%83.789.1-5.4
11 Cordon2852318%80.894.4-13.6
12 Welcome2842414%81.195.8-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada2631141889
Nacional24283225109
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.