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Penarol vs Aguada Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 17 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 78-85
16-26 23-21 23-20 16-18
Position#3
Record18-6
FormWWWLW
Points / game83.9
Allowed / game74.5
vs
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
Position#2
Record19-5
FormWWWLW
Points / game89.9
Allowed / game80.3
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2024-25
Meetings · Penarol v Aguada
19 Jun 2026
PENA80
AGUA71
09 Jun 2026
PENA89
AGUA84
03 Jun 2026
PENA99
AGUA82
17 Apr 2026
PENA103
AGUA95
07 Nov 2025
PENA103
AGUA89
17 Mar 2025
PENA78
AGUA85
28 Oct 2024
PENA86
AGUA77
17 Jun 2024
PENA71
AGUA88
10 Jun 2024
PENA95
AGUA78
02 Jun 2024
PENA65
AGUA66
18 Mar 2024
PENA81
AGUA82
15 Jan 2024
PENA88
AGUA87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
W
79-70
79
70
+9
73avg 78
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
93-75
93
75
+18
94avg 78
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
104-92
104
92
+12
99avg 78
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
83-80
83
80
+3
83avg 78
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
88-59
88
59
+29
84avg 78
H12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
83-72
83
72
+11
82avg 78
A14/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
85-84
85
84
+1
78avg 78
A01/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
82-68
82
68
+14
82avg 78
H05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
72-90
72
90
-18
57avg 78
A10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
80-74
80
74
+6
71avg 78
H13/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-21
19-16
20-16
25-17
23-16
22-24
21-18
27-17
31-23
30-19
17-25
26-25
17-9
24-29
28-23
14-19
22-9
23-13
21-13
22-24
27-24
19-16
29-16
8-16
26-26
25-14
20-21
14-23
27-14
13-17
20-19
22-18
18-26
25-14
9-26
20-24
27-26
12-22
16-10
25-16
161.3Avg total
84.9Scored
76.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)83.974.5158.4+9.575%
Season at home (12)81.872.2154.0+9.583%
Season away (12)86.176.7162.8+9.467%
Last 10 (10)84.976.4161.3+8.590%
Last 5 (5)80.477.6158.0+2.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)78.386.3164.7-8.00%
vs Similar ◀ (9)78.079.6157.6-1.633%
vs Weaker (18)87.571.9159.4+15.694%
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Cordon
#9
L
88-96
88
96
-8
72avg 86
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
95-81
95
81
+14
102avg 86
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
98-86
98
86
+12
98avg 86
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
95-86
95
86
+9
98avg 86
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
71-70
71
70
+1
59avg 86
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
94-91
94
91
+3
90avg 86
A13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
77-75
77
75
+2
69avg 86
A27/02
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
101-72
101
72
+29
100avg 86
H04/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
85-90
85
90
-5
80avg 86
H11/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
99-81
99
81
+18
100avg 86
H13/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-21
19-15
20-31
26-29
26-22
25-23
20-17
24-19
27-20
31-28
13-15
27-23
34-26
16-24
24-20
21-16
27-20
13-16
17-14
14-20
22-19
36-20
15-26
21-26
22-15
19-12
13-17
23-31
25-21
34-19
28-17
14-15
24-23
29-27
18-19
14-21
29-13
26-24
24-28
20-16
173.1Avg total
90.3Scored
82.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)89.980.3170.2+9.679%
Season at home (13)91.079.6170.6+11.485%
Season away (11)88.581.1169.6+7.573%
Last 10 (10)90.382.8173.1+7.580%
Last 5 (5)91.281.8173.0+9.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)93.787.3181.0+6.367%
vs Similar ◀ (8)83.579.0162.5+4.575%
vs Weaker (19)90.679.5170.1+11.284%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +5.9+5.9Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +4.0+4.0Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: -1.2-1.2
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +5.9+5.9Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +4.0+4.0Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: -1.2-1.2
PenarolAguada
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
61-42
61
42
+19
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
45-22
45
22
+23
H12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A14/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
51-40
51
40
+11
A01/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H13/03
Liga Uruguaya
82.3Avg total
44.5Scored
37.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.538.381.8+5.367%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.037.978.9+3.156%-
Last 30 away (14)46.438.685.1+7.879%-
Last 10 (10)44.537.882.3+6.780%-
Last 5 (5)43.839.883.6+4.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)41.743.385.0-1.767%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)40.739.079.7+1.733%-
vs Weaker (18)45.337.182.3+8.283%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordon
#9
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
58-48
58
48
+10
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
D
50-50
50
50
+0
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
58-39
58
39
+19
A13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
41-27
41
27
+14
A27/02
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
59-40
59
40
+19
H04/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
53-50
53
50
+3
H11/03
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
55-37
55
37
+18
H13/03
Liga Uruguaya
91.5Avg total
50.7Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.840.487.2+6.383%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.541.891.3+7.793%-
Last 30 away (15)44.139.183.1+5.073%-
Last 10 (10)50.740.891.5+9.990%-
Last 5 (5)53.238.691.8+14.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)54.338.092.3+16.3100%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)42.941.684.5+1.275%-
vs Weaker (19)47.240.387.5+6.984%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 84.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.921.6
51.6%
51.5%43.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.59.6
34.9%
33.0%28.8
🏀 Free throws17.212.1
70.3%
71.7%12.1
They take 69.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 89.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.621.3
53.8%
51.5%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.910.6
34.3%
33.0%31.8
🏀 Free throws19.915.3
76.9%
71.7%15.3
They take 70.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
WLWWWWWWWW
Aguada
WLWWWWWWWL
#3
League position
#2
+10.6
Net rating
+10.0
107.2
Offensive rating
113.1
96.6
Defensive rating
103.1
51.9%
Effective FG%
52.8%
48.1%
Opp. effective FG%
48.3%
16.7%
Turnover %
16.1%
29.6%
Off. rebound %
33.1%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.28
34.9%
3-point %
34.3%
64.4%
Assist %
65.2%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence107.2 · 113.1Defence96.6 · 103.1Shooting51.9% · 52.8%3-point %34.9% · 34.3%Ball care16.7% · 16.1%Off. rebounds29.6% · 33.1%Free throws0.25 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)90% · 80%
■ Penarol   ■ Aguada
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Penarol wins
6
Aguada wins
DateGameScore
15/01/25Aguada v Penarol77-69
28/10/24Penarol v Aguada86-77 OT
18/06/24Penarol v Aguada71-88
15/06/24Aguada v Penarol88-74
11/06/24Penarol v Aguada95-78
07/06/24Aguada v Penarol97-90
03/06/24Penarol v Aguada65-66
13/04/24Aguada v Penarol77-82
19/03/24Penarol v Aguada81-82
16/01/24Penarol v Aguada88-87
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/25HDefensor80-74
10/03/25ANacional72-90
05/03/25HHebraica y Macabi82-68
01/03/25ADefensor85-84
14/02/25ABigua83-72
12/02/25HWelcome88-59
03/02/25AUrunday83-80
30/01/25ACordon104-92
27/01/25HTrouville93-75
25/01/25HMalvin79-70
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/25HNacional99-81
11/03/25HMalvin85-90
04/03/25HWelcome101-72
27/02/25ATrouville77-75
13/02/25ANacional94-91
07/02/25HMalvin71-70
04/02/25HHebraica y Macabi95-86
31/01/25HUrunday98-86
28/01/25ABigua95-81
24/01/25ACordon88-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW75%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayWWWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %75%83%67%
Points / game83.981.886.1
Allowed / game74.572.276.7
Point differential+9.5+9.5+9.4
Avg total158.4154.0162.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)67% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %4%8%0%
Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW79%
HomeWWWLW85%
AwayWLWWW73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241311
Win %79%85%73%
Points / game89.991.088.5
Allowed / game80.379.681.1
Point differential+9.6+11.4+7.5
Avg total170.2170.6169.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%62%45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)33% (3)100% (3)
Overtime %4%0%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional2421388%93.678.9+14.7
2 Aguada2419579%89.980.3+9.6
3 Penarol2418675%83.974.5+9.5
4 Malvin2415962%80.877.1+3.7
5 Defensor24121250%87.182.4+4.7
6 Cordon24111346%82.985.2-2.4
7 Bigua25111444%84.685.4-0.8
8 Hebraica y Macabi25111444%85.287.4-2.2
9 Urunday2591636%80.285.8-5.6
10 Urupan2591636%81.287.0-5.8
11 Welcome2571828%78.493.0-14.5
12 Trouville2542116%74.984.2-9.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol1623231678
Aguada2621201885
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