Al-Rayyan host Al Gharafa in the QBL on 12 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Al-Rayyan as the clear favourite at 89% versus 11% for the visitors, a reflection of their 3-1 season record, 85.0 points per game and 80.2 allowed, placing them third in the league, compared to Al Gharafa's 3-3 record, 80.3 points per game and 83.8 allowed from six games. Al-Rayyan have struggled at home, 0-1 with 69.0 points scored and 90.0 allowed in their sole home game, yet they have won three of their last five outings, including a 106-85 victory over Al Ahli and an 81-64 win over Al Shamal, while Al Gharafa's road form is stronger, 2-1 with 81.7 points scored and 83.7 allowed, but they have lost two of their last three away games, most recently falling 84-97 to Qatar Sports. In their ten previous encounters Al-Rayyan have won eight times, most recently defeating Al Gharafa 101-82 on 29 December 2025. Pythia projects a 94-80 scoreline with a total of 174.7 points, a home line of -13.5 with a 51% chance of covering, and a 61% probability of the over on the 170.0 total, with a 2% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on Al-Rayyan's ability to translate their season dominance into a decisive home victory.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 85.0 | 80.2 | 165.2 | +4.8 | 75% |
| Season at home (1) | 69.0 | 90.0 | 159.0 | -21.0 | 0% |
| Season away (3) | 90.3 | 77.0 | 167.3 | +13.3 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.7 | 79.6 | 163.3 | +4.1 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.8 | 82.4 | 166.2 | +1.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 76.5 | 86.0 | 162.5 | -9.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (4) | 85.8 | 86.8 | 172.5 | -1.0 | 25% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (24) | 92.5 | 78.6 | 171.0 | +13.9 | 88% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 80.3 | 83.8 | 164.2 | -3.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (3) | 79.0 | 84.0 | 163.0 | -5.0 | 33% |
| Season away (3) | 81.7 | 83.7 | 165.3 | -2.0 | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 90.4 | 94.7 | 185.1 | -4.3 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.2 | 87.0 | 168.2 | -5.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 85.7 | 96.4 | 182.1 | -10.7 | 11% |
| vs Similar (2) | 74.5 | 81.5 | 156.0 | -7.0 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 93.9 | 88.2 | 182.1 | +5.7 | 89% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 81.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 44.2 | 40.5 | 84.7 | +3.8 | 63% | 67% |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 45.5 | 40.4 | 85.8 | +5.1 | 69% | 77% |
| Last 30 away (17) | 43.3 | 40.5 | 83.8 | +2.8 | 59% | 59% |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.2 | 41.2 | 81.4 | -1.0 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.4 | 40.6 | 81.0 | -0.2 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 31.0 | 41.0 | 72.0 | -10.0 | 0% | 0% |
| vs Similar (4) | 41.2 | 44.0 | 85.2 | -2.8 | 25% | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (24) | 45.8 | 39.8 | 85.7 | +6.0 | 75% | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 81.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 43.0 | 44.3 | 87.3 | -1.3 | 40% | 73% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 43.2 | 46.1 | 89.3 | -2.9 | 33% | 73% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 42.8 | 42.5 | 85.3 | +0.3 | 47% | 73% |
| Last 10 (10) | 45.7 | 45.5 | 91.2 | +0.2 | 40% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.8 | 42.2 | 83.0 | -1.4 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 41.6 | 45.0 | 86.6 | -3.4 | 32% | 74% |
| vs Similar (2) | 40.5 | 43.5 | 84.0 | -3.0 | 0% | 50% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 46.6 | 43.0 | 89.6 | +3.6 | 67% | 78% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gharafa over 73 | 77.2% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +24.0pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 74 | 73.9% | 1.71 | 1.71 | - | - | - | - | +23.7pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 70.5 | 83.4% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +20.8pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan over 88.5 | 72.0% | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.63 | - | - | - | +20.6pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan over 89 | 71.0% | 1.69 | 1.69 | - | - | - | - | +20.0pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 75 | 70.5% | 1.70 | 1.70 | - | - | - | - | +19.9pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan over 87.5 | 75.3% | 1.54 | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | +19.0pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan over 86.5 | 78.3% | 1.46 | 1.46 | - | - | - | - | +18.8pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan over 85.5 | 81.2% | 1.39 | 1.39 | - | - | - | - | +18.2pp | Won |
| Over 166 | 70.3% | 1.76 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 1.70 | - | - | +17.9pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan over 84.5 | 83.7% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +17.6pp | Won |
| Over 165 | 72.5% | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.68 | - | - | - | +17.3pp | Won |
| Over 165.5 | 71.0% | 1.75 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.74 | - | - | +17.2pp | Won |
| Over 164 | 74.5% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +17.1pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan over 83.5 | 86.1% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +16.8pp | Won |
| Over 164.5 | 73.0% | 1.63 | 1.66 | 1.60 | - | - | - | +16.7pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +20 | 71.4% | 1.66 | 1.66 | - | - | - | - | +16.5pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +21 | 74.4% | 1.56 | 1.56 | - | - | - | - | +16.1pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +20.5 | 72.3% | 1.58 | 1.61 | 1.56 | - | - | - | +15.7pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +21.5 | 75.1% | 1.50 | 1.52 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +15.3pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa +22.5 | 77.8% | 1.39 | 1.39 | - | - | - | - | +14.1pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 74.5 | 71.5% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +12.5pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 73.5 | 74.8% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +12.4pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 72.5 | 77.9% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +12.2pp | Won |
| Al Gharafa over 71.5 | 80.7% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +12.0pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan (regulation) | 87.2% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +9.5pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan -7.5 | 71.8% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 97.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +5.4pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan win | 88.7% | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.10 | +5.1pp | Won |
| Al-Rayyan -6.5 | 74.8% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +5.1pp | Won |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 38.4 | 20.5 | 51.6% | 41.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 31.6 | 10.6 | 30.5% | 31.8 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 17.4 | 12.8 | 68.0% | 12.8 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 42.8 | 24.2 | 51.6% | 48.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 30.6 | 10.6 | 30.5% | 31.8 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 16.7 | 11.3 | 68.0% | 11.3 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 29/12/25 | Al-Rayyan v Al Gharafa | 101-82 |
| 04/12/25 | Al Gharafa v Al-Rayyan | 90-106 |
| 20/01/25 | Al Gharafa v Al-Rayyan | 82-93 |
| 12/12/24 | Al-Rayyan v Al Gharafa | 122-85 |
| 24/12/23 | Al Gharafa v Al-Rayyan | 80-89 OT |
| 11/11/23 | Al-Rayyan v Al Gharafa | 88-79 |
| 04/05/23 | Al-Rayyan v Al Gharafa | 85-68 |
| 01/03/23 | Al Gharafa v Al-Rayyan | 56-68 |
| 14/02/22 | Al Gharafa v Al-Rayyan | 120-68 |
| 16/11/21 | Al-Rayyan v Al Gharafa | 73-83 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Al Arabi | 76-86 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Al Khor | 97-89 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Qatar Sports | 84-97 OT |
| 26/10/26 | H | Al Wakrah | 77-69 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Al Shamal | 72-94 |
| 13/10/26 | A | Al Ahli | 76-68 |
| 24/01/26 | H | Al Arabi | 97-117 |
| 21/01/26 | A | Al Khor | 122-119 |
| 12/01/26 | H | Al Ahli | 100-109 |
| 08/01/26 | H | Qatar Sports | 103-99 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWW | 75% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | WWW | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 75% | 0% | 100% |
| Points / game | 85.0 | 69.0 | 90.3 |
| Allowed / game | 80.2 | 90.0 | 77.0 |
| Point differential | +4.8 | -21.0 | +13.3 |
| Avg total | 165.2 | 159.0 | 167.3 |
| Over 170 | 25% | 0% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 0% | 67% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 25% | 0% | 33% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLWL | 50% |
| Home | WLL | 33% |
| Away | WLW | 67% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Win % | 50% | 33% | 67% |
| Points / game | 80.3 | 79.0 | 81.7 |
| Allowed / game | 83.8 | 84.0 | 83.7 |
| Point differential | -3.5 | -5.0 | -2.0 |
| Avg total | 164.2 | 163.0 | 165.3 |
| Over 170 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 17% | 33% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 93.2 | 80.2 | +13.0 | |
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 94.4 | 72.0 | +22.4 | |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 85.0 | 80.2 | +4.8 | |
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 89.4 | 89.8 | -0.4 | |
| 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 80.3 | 83.8 | -3.5 | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.2 | 78.2 | -4.0 | |
| 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.3 | 83.0 | -2.7 | |
| 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 84.0 | 94.2 | -10.2 | |
| 9 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 73.5 | 90.2 | -16.7 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 18 | 28 | 21 | 90 | |
| 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 77 |
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