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Arlans vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 07 May 2026
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 73-49
25-15 13-18 20-8 15-8
Position#11
Record10-22
FormLLWLW
Points / game73.3
Allowed / game83.0
Arlans 🏆
Kazakhstan
vs
Position#14
Record3-29
FormLLLLW
Points / game56.8
Allowed / game86.2
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arlans winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ArlansKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shymkent
#2
L
67-103
67
103
-36
H12/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
79-85
79
85
-6
A13/03
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
69-82
69
82
-13
H14/03
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
L
61-92
61
92
-31
A15/03
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
71-67
71
67
+4
H16/03
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
L
59-118
59
118
-59
A17/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
74-75
74
75
-1
H03/05
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
82-77
82
77
+5
A04/05
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
39-94
39
94
-55
H05/05
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
91-87 OT
91
87
+4
A06/05
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-26
14-33
21-24
19-20
15-17
22-21
22-22
20-25
17-17
13-23
16-17
23-25
6-26
21-16
12-30
22-20
18-14
20-19
13-16
20-18
13-32
19-40
14-31
13-15
17-13
14-18
20-25
23-19
16-19
18-22
16-14
32-22
17-26
8-23
0-22
14-23
16-21
24-20
20-12
16-23
157.2Avg total
69.2Scored
88.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)73.383.0156.4-9.731%
Season at home (15)69.983.7153.7-13.813%
Season away (17)76.482.4158.8-6.147%
Last 10 (10)69.288.0157.2-18.830%
Last 5 (5)69.090.2159.2-21.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)68.396.2164.5-27.90%
vs Similar (10)73.478.4151.8-5.030%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)81.566.0147.5+15.583%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
69-94
69
94
-25
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
69-75
69
75
-6
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
44-64
44
64
-20
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
67-80
67
80
-13
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
70-74
70
74
-4
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
55-77
55
77
-22
A17/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
64-84
64
84
-20
A03/05
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
65-76
65
76
-11
H04/05
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
41-96
41
96
-55
A05/05
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
64-58
64
58
+6
H06/05
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-25
18-22
15-22
21-25
20-19
19-17
20-20
10-19
8-12
11-21
9-12
16-19
24-29
19-21
8-17
16-13
14-24
20-7
14-17
22-26
11-19
15-23
13-17
16-18
14-27
18-18
17-18
15-21
22-21
14-19
12-25
17-11
10-24
14-38
5-22
12-12
16-12
18-12
21-19
9-15
138.6Avg total
60.8Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)56.886.2142.9-29.49%
Season at home (16)58.981.1140.1-22.219%
Season away (16)54.691.2145.8-36.60%
Last 10 (10)60.877.8138.6-17.010%
Last 5 (5)57.878.2136.0-20.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)56.188.4144.4-32.34%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Arlans) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.3-6.3Q1: -5.8-5.8Q2Q2: -6.2-6.2Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: -5.9-5.9Q3: -5.5-5.5Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: -2.5-2.5
ArlansPavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ArlansLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shymkent
#2
L
27-59
27
59
-32
H12/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A13/03
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H14/03
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
L
27-42
27
42
-15
A15/03
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H16/03
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
L
32-72
32
72
-40
A17/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H03/05
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A04/05
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
25-49
25
49
-24
H05/05
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A06/05
Higher League
76.7Avg total
32.1Scored
44.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.642.978.4-7.327%-
Last 30 at home (14)32.842.675.4-9.921%-
Last 30 away (16)38.043.181.1-5.131%-
Last 10 (10)32.144.676.7-12.510%-
Last 5 (5)32.446.879.2-14.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)32.252.484.6-20.20%-
vs Similar (10)36.837.574.3-0.740%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)41.329.570.8+11.867%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
19-33
19
33
-14
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A17/04
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A03/05
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H04/05
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
L
24-62
24
62
-38
A05/05
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
34-24
34
24
+10
H06/05
Higher League
73.0Avg total
32.0Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)27.845.973.7-18.117%-
Last 30 at home (15)29.940.570.4-10.733%-
Last 30 away (15)25.851.377.1-25.50%-
Last 10 (10)32.041.073.0-9.030%-
Last 5 (5)30.442.673.0-12.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)27.446.874.2-19.414%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Arlans) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Arlanstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Arlans: 69.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.716.1
42.7%
49.5%32.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.48.5
27.1%
28.5%25.5
🏀 Free throws18.511.5
62.2%
63.9%11.5
They take 69.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 60.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀62%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 62% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers15.0 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.2 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.118.8
37.5%
49.5%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.95.0
22.8%
28.5%15.0
🏀 Free throws14.48.2
56.9%
63.9%8.2
They take 72.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 30% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Arlans
WLWLLWLLLL
Pavlodar
WLLLLLLLLL
#11
League position
#14
-24.0
Net rating
-18.8
88.3
Offensive rating
75.9
112.3
Defensive rating
94.7
41.8%
Effective FG%
36.5%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
43.4%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.20
27.1%
3-point %
22.8%
59.8%
Assist %
37.4%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence88.3 · 75.9Defence112.3 · 94.7Shooting41.8% · 36.5%3-point %27.1% · 22.8%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.27 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)30% · 10%
■ Arlans   ■ Pavlodar
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Arlans wins
0
Pavlodar wins
DateGameScore
12/02/26Pavlodar v Arlans57-86
10/02/26Pavlodar v Arlans55-93
Arlanslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/05/26ATigers-KazATU91-87 OT
05/05/26HKaraganda39-94
04/05/26AAiRom82-77
03/05/26HTobol Kostanay 274-75
17/03/26ABars Petropavlovsk59-118
16/03/26HTigers-KazATU71-67
15/03/26ABars Petropavlovsk61-92
14/03/26HTigers-KazATU69-82
13/03/26AAiRom79-85
12/03/26HShymkent67-103
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/05/26HAiRom64-58
05/05/26ATigers-KazATU41-96
04/05/26HTobol Kostanay 265-76
03/05/26AKaraganda64-84
17/04/26ATobol Kostanay 255-77
16/04/26HChelSU Kostanay70-74
15/04/26ATobol Kostanay 267-80
14/04/26HChelSU Kostanay44-64
29/03/26HCHAMP1ON69-75
28/03/26ABC Almaty 269-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arlans
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW31%
HomeLLWLL13%
AwayLLLWW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321517
Win %31%13%47%
Points / game73.369.976.4
Allowed / game83.083.782.4
Point differential-9.7-13.8-6.1
Avg total156.4153.7158.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%7%35%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)25% (4)100% (2)
Overtime %3%0%6%
Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW9%
HomeLLLLW19%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321616
Win %9%19%0%
Points / game56.858.954.6
Allowed / game86.281.191.2
Point differential-29.4-22.2-36.6
Avg total142.9140.1145.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+3%6%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan33330100%86.959.7+27.2
2 Shymkent3329488%94.070.1+23.8
3 Bars Petropavlovsk3326779%84.762.9+21.8
4 Aktobe3325876%81.868.7+13.0
5 BC Almaty 233201361%83.874.5+9.2
6 Atyrau 233191458%75.771.5+4.2
7 Karaganda32161650%80.876.3+4.5
8 ChelSU Kostanay33161748%74.979.7-4.8
9 CHAMP1ON33141942%72.277.7-5.5
10 Tigers-KazATU32131941%69.975.8-5.8
11 Arlans32102231%73.383.0-9.7
12 Tobol Kostanay 232102231%70.981.0-10.1
13 AiRom3262619%64.481.8-17.4
14 Pavlodar323299%56.886.2-29.4
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2281274%55.783.1-27.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Arlans2513201573
Pavlodar15188849
← all games of the day
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