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Arlans vs Shymkent Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 05:00
Final 67-103
13-26 14-33 21-24 19-20
Position#11
Record7-15
FormWLLLL
Points / game75.2
Allowed / game80.8
vs
Position#2
Record20-3
FormWLWWW
Points / game94.9
Allowed / game68.1
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Arlans v Shymkent
12 Mar 2026
ARLA67
SHYM103
10 Mar 2026
ARLA74
SHYM102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arlans winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Shymkent winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ArlansKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormArlans
Date
Competition
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
93-66
93
66
+27
no box
A19/01
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
69-71
69
71
-2
64avg 64
H20/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
56-88
56
88
-32
49avg 64
A21/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
93-55
93
55
+38
93avg 64
A10/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
80-91
80
91
-11
64avg 64
H11/02
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
86-57
86
57
+29
no box
A12/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
86-97
86
97
-11
77avg 64
H13/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
54-93
54
93
-39
33avg 64
A09/03
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
74-102
74
102
-28
no box
H10/03
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
74-91
74
91
-17
65avg 64
A11/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-20
30-13
27-27
16-6
15-19
15-16
20-18
19-18
19-25
15-23
9-22
13-18
28-7
21-13
25-17
19-18
16-22
20-24
15-19
29-26
30-14
15-11
23-15
18-17
17-31
22-16
21-20
26-30
19-22
7-28
12-22
16-21
17-30
22-35
16-20
19-17
19-31
16-20
11-18
28-22
157.6Avg total
76.5Scored
81.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)75.280.8156.0-5.532%
Season at home (10)72.983.5156.4-10.610%
Season away (12)77.278.5155.7-1.350%
Last 10 (10)76.581.1157.6-4.630%
Last 5 (5)74.888.0162.8-13.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)74.191.9166.0-17.89%
vs Similar (6)71.578.8150.3-7.317%
vs Weaker (5)82.258.6140.8+23.6100%
This opponent (Shymkent) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ShymkentKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormShymkent
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#14
W
111-63
111
63
+48
103avg 85
H30/11
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
W
96-58
96
58
+38
104avg 85
H15/12
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
110-65
110
65
+45
116avg 85
A16/12
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
W
94-76
94
76
+18
90avg 85
H17/12
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
75-60
75
60
+15
71avg 85
A18/12
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
W
66-58
66
58
+8
60avg 85
A12/02
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
70-77
70
77
-7
59avg 85
H14/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
93-55
93
55
+38
97avg 85
H09/03
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
102-74
102
74
+28
no box
A10/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
96-46
96
46
+50
96avg 85
H11/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-15
26-11
31-13
23-24
25-11
31-22
18-14
22-11
36-20
20-16
32-15
22-14
30-20
23-14
22-23
19-19
28-14
21-17
20-12
6-17
19-9
10-10
17-28
20-11
20-15
20-18
20-22
10-22
22-9
29-20
24-7
18-19
30-17
35-22
20-16
17-19
29-14
21-16
24-11
22-5
154.5Avg total
91.3Scored
63.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)94.968.1163.0+26.887%
Season at home (13)94.167.1161.2+27.077%
Season away (10)96.069.5165.5+26.5100%
Last 10 (10)91.363.2154.5+28.190%
Last 5 (5)85.462.0147.4+23.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)53.090.0143.0-37.00%
vs Similar (5)82.077.2159.2+4.840%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)93.261.4154.6+31.896%
This opponent (Arlans) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-16-8+0+8+16Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +12.6+12.6Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +7.0+7.0Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +6.7+6.7Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +1.8+1.8
-16-8+0+8+16Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +12.6+12.6Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +7.0+7.0Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +6.7+6.7Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +1.8+1.8
ArlansShymkent
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ArlansLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
50-33
50
33
+17
A19/01
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H20/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A21/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
49-20
49
20
+29
A10/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H11/02
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
45-25
45
25
+20
A12/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H13/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
26-50
26
50
-24
A09/03
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
39-65
39
65
-26
H10/03
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
35-51
35
51
-16
A11/03
Higher League
80.3Avg total
38.3Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (22)37.140.777.8-3.636%-
Last 30 at home (10)33.141.574.6-8.420%-
Last 30 away (12)40.440.180.5+0.350%-
Last 10 (10)38.342.080.3-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)36.847.684.4-10.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)33.049.382.3-16.30%-
vs Similar (6)38.238.376.5-0.250%-
vs Weaker (5)44.824.869.6+20.0100%-
This opponent (Shymkent) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ShymkentLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#14
W
57-26
57
26
+31
H30/11
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
W
56-33
56
33
+23
H15/12
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
56-36
56
36
+20
A16/12
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H17/12
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A18/12
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
W
29-19
29
19
+10
A12/02
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H14/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
51-29
51
29
+22
H09/03
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
65-39
65
39
+26
A10/03
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H11/03
Higher League
81.6Avg total
50.6Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)49.833.283.1+16.686%-
Last 30 at home (16)49.533.282.8+16.281%-
Last 30 away (13)50.233.283.5+17.092%-
Last 10 (10)50.631.081.6+19.6100%-
Last 5 (5)47.030.077.0+17.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)24.038.062.0-14.00%-
vs Similar (5)45.640.285.8+5.440%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)51.931.583.4+20.3100%-
This opponent (Arlans) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Arlanstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Arlans: 68.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.6 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.919.1
48.0%
49.5%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.15.9
23.4%
28.5%17.6
🏀 Free throws20.412.2
60.1%
63.9%12.2
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Shymkenttheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Shymkent: 94.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.526.5
62.4%
49.5%53.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.09.5
31.7%
28.5%28.5
🏀 Free throws24.513.0
53.1%
63.9%13.0
They take 72.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 8/2 games with a box score before 12 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Arlans
LLLLWLWLLW
Shymkent
WWWLWWWWWW
#11
League position
#2
-29.1
Net rating
+58.9
85.4
Offensive rating
126.6
114.5
Defensive rating
67.6
43.0%
Effective FG%
56.2%
50.3%
Opp. effective FG%
35.7%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.34
23.4%
3-point %
31.7%
56.0%
Assist %
70.8%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence85.4 · 126.6Defence114.5 · 67.6Shooting43.0% · 56.2%3-point %23.4% · 31.7%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.31 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)30% · 90%
■ Arlans   ■ Shymkent
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Arlans wins
1
Shymkent wins
DateGameScore
10/03/26Arlans v Shymkent74-102
Arlanslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26ATuran74-91
10/03/26HShymkent74-102
09/03/26ATuran54-93
13/02/26HKaraganda86-97
12/02/26APavlodar86-57
11/02/26HKaraganda80-91
10/02/26APavlodar93-55
21/01/26ATobol Kostanay 256-88
20/01/26HChelSU Kostanay69-71
19/01/26ATobol Kostanay 293-66
Shymkentlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26HAiRom96-46
10/03/26AArlans102-74
09/03/26HAiRom93-55
14/02/26HAktobe70-77
12/02/26AAktobe66-58
18/12/25ATigers-KazATU75-60
17/12/25HBars Petropavlovsk94-76
16/12/25ATigers-KazATU110-65
15/12/25HBars Petropavlovsk96-58
30/11/25HPavlodar111-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arlans
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL32%
HomeLLLLL10%
AwayLWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221012
Win %32%10%50%
Points / game75.272.977.2
Allowed / game80.883.578.5
Point differential-5.5-10.6-1.3
Avg total156.0156.4155.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%10%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Shymkent
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW87%
HomeWWLWW77%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231310
Win %87%77%100%
Points / game94.994.196.0
Allowed / game68.167.169.5
Point differential+26.8+27.0+26.5
Avg total163.0161.2165.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+78%77%80%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan23230100%90.060.2+29.8
2 Shymkent2320387%94.968.1+26.8
3 Aktobe2319483%83.765.6+18.2
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2015575%82.861.0+21.8
5 Atyrau 22115671%77.768.9+8.9
6 BC Almaty 22012860%80.873.3+7.4
7 ChelSU Kostanay23131057%76.479.7-3.3
8 CHAMP1ON20101050%73.872.8+0.9
9 Karaganda2091145%80.278.0+2.2
10 Tigers-KazATU1971237%66.977.2-10.3
11 Arlans2271532%75.280.8-5.5
12 AiRom2241818%63.681.9-18.3
13 Tobol Kostanay 22442017%68.483.1-14.8
14 Pavlodar2021810%53.389.8-36.5
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2221215%53.083.6-30.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Arlans1314211967
Shymkent26332420103
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