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BC Almaty 2 vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 13:00
Final 94-69
25-15 22-18 22-15 25-21
Position#5
Record14-8
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game73.2
BC Almaty 2 🏆
Kazakhstan
vs
Pavlodar
Kazakhstan
Position#14
Record2-20
FormLLLLL
Points / game54.9
Allowed / game90.0
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · BC Almaty 2 v Pavlodar
28 Mar 2026
BC A94
PAVL69
26 Mar 2026
BC A92
PAVL64
05 Apr 2020
BC A v PAVL
upcoming
03 Feb 2020
BC A56
PAVL85
15 Dec 2019
BC A46
PAVL88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BC Almaty 2 winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BC Almaty 2KazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 Form2
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
113-97
113
97
+16
112avg 76
H06/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
92-60
92
60
+32
94avg 76
A07/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
104-57
104
57
+47
98avg 76
H08/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
57-45
57
45
+12
52avg 76
A09/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
70-45
70
45
+25
65avg 76
H02/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
103-99
103
99
+4
89avg 76
A03/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
85-63
85
63
+22
no box
H04/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
105-78
105
78
+27
90avg 76
A05/03
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
92-64
92
64
+28
94avg 76
H26/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
106-79
106
79
+27
100avg 76
A27/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-29
33-16
24-24
24-28
25-24
29-16
18-9
20-11
34-15
30-14
27-18
13-10
13-14
19-10
12-14
13-7
29-4
20-9
11-9
10-23
24-23
25-30
28-27
26-19
18-19
18-19
28-12
21-13
21-14
38-17
30-17
16-30
35-17
21-16
20-13
16-18
30-25
27-20
28-18
21-16
161.4Avg total
92.7Scored
68.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)82.473.2155.6+9.264%
Season at home (11)85.670.4156.0+15.373%
Season away (11)79.276.0155.2+3.255%
Last 10 (10)92.768.7161.4+24.0100%
Last 5 (5)98.276.6174.8+21.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)61.092.8153.8-31.80%
vs Similar (2)86.593.0179.5-6.50%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)87.767.0154.7+20.788%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPavlodar
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
60-58
60
58
+2
47avg 42
H18/12
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
52-112
52
112
-60
no box
A18/01
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
52-86
52
86
-34
no box
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
55-93
55
93
-38
30avg 42
H10/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
55-101
55
101
-46
45avg 42
A11/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
57-86
57
86
-29
no box
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
61-98
61
98
-37
37avg 42
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
36-84
36
84
-48
3avg 42
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
64-92
64
92
-28
50avg 42
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-92
78
92
-14
60avg 42
H27/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-15
9-21
23-11
16-11
15-35
2-27
23-26
12-24
17-16
13-28
8-23
14-19
7-28
13-21
17-25
18-19
8-31
12-27
12-23
23-20
14-30
11-15
15-23
17-18
23-29
12-23
16-23
10-23
2-26
12-18
6-28
16-12
17-35
16-21
13-20
18-16
15-24
18-26
23-26
22-16
147.2Avg total
57.0Scored
90.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)54.990.0144.9-35.09%
Season at home (11)57.486.5143.8-29.118%
Season away (11)52.593.5145.9-41.00%
Last 10 (10)57.090.2147.2-33.210%
Last 5 (5)59.290.4149.6-31.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)59.192.6151.7-33.64%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (BC Almaty 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-17-9+0+9+17Q1Q1: +7.7+7.7Q1: -13.9-13.9Q2Q2: +9.3+9.3Q2: -10.9-10.9Q3Q3: +6.5+6.5Q3: -7.2-7.2Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -1.2-1.2
-17-9+0+9+17Q1Q1: +7.7+7.7Q1: -13.9-13.9Q2Q2: +9.3+9.3Q2: -10.9-10.9Q3Q3: +6.5+6.5Q3: -7.2-7.2Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -1.2-1.2
BC Almaty 2Pavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BC Almaty 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
65-45
65
45
+20
H06/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A07/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
64-29
64
29
+35
H08/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
32-24
32
24
+8
A09/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
49-13
49
13
+36
H02/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
49-53
49
53
-4
A03/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H04/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
59-31
59
31
+28
A05/03
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
56-33
56
33
+23
H26/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A27/03
Higher League
87.2Avg total
52.1Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.336.883.1+9.467%-
Last 30 at home (13)49.334.283.5+15.277%-
Last 30 away (17)43.938.982.8+5.159%-
Last 10 (10)52.135.187.2+17.080%-
Last 5 (5)51.440.091.4+11.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)32.053.085.0-21.00%-
vs Similar (2)41.042.583.5-1.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)49.133.782.8+15.479%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
L
21-36
21
36
-15
H18/12
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
17-62
17
62
-45
A18/01
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
20-49
20
49
-29
H10/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
20-58
20
58
-38
A11/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
25-45
25
45
-20
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
14-44
14
44
-30
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H27/03
Higher League
74.4Avg total
24.8Scored
49.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.548.076.5-19.513%-
Last 30 at home (12)30.345.675.9-15.325%-
Last 30 away (18)27.349.676.8-22.36%-
Last 10 (10)24.849.674.4-24.80%-
Last 5 (5)28.049.477.4-21.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)28.149.077.1-20.911%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (BC Almaty 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
BC Almaty 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BC Almaty 2: 93.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀21%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.1 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.7 pts a game · 21% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.928.6
58.4%
49.5%57.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.16.6
28.4%
28.5%19.7
🏀 Free throws26.016.8
64.5%
63.9%16.8
They take 72.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 73.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.0 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.522.0
40.4%
49.5%44.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.06.5
24.1%
28.5%19.5
🏀 Free throws24.010.0
41.7%
63.9%10.0
They take 81.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/2 games with a box score before 28 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
BC Almaty 2
WWWWWWWWWW
Pavlodar
LLLLLLLLLW
#5
League position
#14
+29.6
Net rating
-20.9
117.2
Offensive rating
83.2
87.5
Defensive rating
104.1
53.3%
Effective FG%
39.0%
43.5%
Opp. effective FG%
53.9%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.29
28.4%
3-point %
24.1%
50.6%
Assist %
40.4%
100%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence117.2 · 83.2Defence87.5 · 104.1Shooting53.3% · 39.0%3-point %28.4% · 24.1%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.36 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)100% · 10%
■ BC Almaty 2   ■ Pavlodar
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
BC Almaty 2 wins
4
Pavlodar wins
DateGameScore
26/03/26BC Almaty 2 v Pavlodar92-64
06/04/23Pavlodar v BC Almaty 275-84
15/11/22Pavlodar v BC Almaty 262-95
20/10/22Pavlodar v BC Almaty 272-91
19/11/20Pavlodar v BC Almaty 273-76
03/11/20Pavlodar v BC Almaty 282-105
28/02/20Pavlodar v BC Almaty 2101-77
03/02/20BC Almaty 2 v Pavlodar56-85
15/12/19BC Almaty 2 v Pavlodar46-88
20/11/19Pavlodar v BC Almaty 2107-67
BC Almaty 2last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/26AKaraganda106-79
26/03/26HPavlodar92-64
05/03/26AChelSU Kostanay105-78
04/03/26HTobol Kostanay 285-63
03/03/26AChelSU Kostanay103-99
02/03/26HTobol Kostanay 270-45
09/01/26AAiRom57-45
08/01/26HArlans104-57
07/01/26AAiRom92-60
06/01/26HArlans113-97
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/26HCHAMP1ON78-92
26/03/26ABC Almaty 264-92
14/02/26AKaraganda36-84
13/02/26AAiRom61-98
12/02/26HArlans57-86
11/02/26AAiRom55-101
10/02/26HArlans55-93
19/01/26HAktobe52-86
18/01/26AAktobe52-112
18/12/25HKaspiy Aktau 260-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

BC Almaty 2
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW64%
HomeWWWWW73%
AwayWWWWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %64%73%55%
Points / game82.485.679.2
Allowed / game73.270.476.0
Point differential+9.2+15.3+3.2
Avg total155.6156.0155.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+59%73%45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL9%
HomeWLLLL18%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %9%18%0%
Points / game54.957.452.5
Allowed / game90.086.593.5
Point differential-35.0-29.1-41.0
Avg total144.9143.8145.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%9%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan24240100%89.760.0+29.7
2 Shymkent2421388%95.268.1+27.2
3 Aktobe2420483%83.866.0+17.8
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2419579%85.960.0+25.9
5 Atyrau 22216673%77.767.9+9.9
6 BC Almaty 22214864%82.473.2+9.2
7 ChelSU Kostanay24131154%76.480.0-3.6
8 CHAMP1ON23121152%74.773.5+1.2
9 Karaganda23101343%80.079.0+1.0
10 Tigers-KazATU24101442%67.575.7-8.2
11 Arlans2882029%73.683.0-9.4
12 AiRom2852318%63.282.5-19.3
13 Tobol Kostanay 22442017%68.483.1-14.8
14 Pavlodar222209%54.990.0-35.0
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2221215%53.083.6-30.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
BC Almaty 22522222594
Pavlodar1518152169
← all games of the day
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