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Atyrau vs Astana Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 21 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 68-97
18-19 13-27 21-25 16-26
Position#4
Record9-10
FormWWLWL
Points / game78.6
Allowed / game82.1
vs
Astana 🏆
Kazakhstan
Position#1
Record17-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game90.4
Allowed / game64.0
KazakhstanNational League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Atyrau v Astana
16 May 2026
ATYR79
AST78
15 May 2026
ATYR83
AST88
21 Jan 2026
ATYR68
AST97
20 Jan 2026
ATYR50
AST79
19 Oct 2025
ATYR64
AST99
18 Oct 2025
ATYR61
AST87
06 May 2023
ATYR52
AST58
09 Apr 2023
ATYR68
AST80
08 Apr 2023
ATYR62
AST67
10 May 2022
ATYR64
AST70
27 Sep 2021
ATYR65
AST76
26 Sep 2021
ATYR50
AST81
12 May 2021
ATYR65
AST88
30 Nov 2020
ATYR67
AST88
29 Nov 2020
ATYR59
AST89
30 Oct 2019
ATYR67
AST86
29 Oct 2019
ATYR67
AST102
06 Feb 2019
ATYR54
AST109
05 Feb 2019
ATYR76
AST95
17 Oct 2018
ATYR58
AST92
16 Oct 2018
ATYR62
AST85
05 May 2018
ATYR54
AST80
06 Feb 2018
ATYR66
AST72
05 Feb 2018
ATYR84
AST89
11 Feb 2017
ATYR54
AST67
10 Feb 2017
ATYR64
AST79
26 Oct 2016
ATYR70
AST75
25 Oct 2016
ATYR65
AST72
29 Apr 2016
ATYR90
AST88
28 Apr 2016
ATYR87
AST67
04 Feb 2016
ATYR104
AST87
03 Feb 2016
ATYR99
AST78
22 Apr 2014
ATYR64
AST73
15 Mar 2014
ATYR66
AST77
27 Nov 2013
ATYR74
AST100
26 Nov 2013
ATYR70
AST82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Atyrau winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Astana winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AtyrauKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAtyrau
Date
Competition
Astana
#1
L
63-96
63
96
-33
51avg 69
A26/11
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
68-92
68
92
-24
56avg 69
H07/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
64-78
64
78
-14
54avg 69
H08/12
National League
Almaty
#3
W
92-88
92
88
+4
85avg 69
A13/12
National League
Almaty
#3
W
83-73
83
73
+10
75avg 69
A14/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
94-72
94
72
+22
92avg 69
H22/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
90-72
90
72
+18
87avg 69
H23/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
91-101
91
101
-10
85avg 69
A11/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
75-73
75
73
+2
74avg 69
A12/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
50-79
50
79
-29
38avg 69
H20/01
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-28
11-26
21-23
7-19
25-20
19-28
16-22
8-22
19-19
20-22
11-26
14-11
28-14
18-17
17-25
29-32
21-16
18-21
22-19
22-17
26-11
25-25
23-9
20-27
28-22
15-15
23-16
24-19
18-29
21-29
32-22
20-21
31-25
14-18
15-11
15-19
11-22
11-17
17-24
11-16
159.4Avg total
77.0Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)78.682.1160.7-3.547%
Season at home (9)76.286.8163.0-10.622%
Season away (10)80.877.9158.7+2.970%
Last 10 (10)77.082.4159.4-5.450%
Last 5 (5)80.079.4159.4+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)72.783.6156.4-10.929%
vs Similar (12)76.582.2158.8-5.833%
vs Weaker (4)89.265.0154.2+24.2100%
This opponent (Astana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AstanaKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAstana
Date
Competition
Almaty
#3
W
106-73
106
73
+33
106avg 87
A09/11
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
78-61
78
61
+17
78avg 87
H25/11
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
96-63
96
63
+33
99avg 87
H26/11
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
97-71
97
71
+26
103avg 87
A02/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
75-63
75
63
+12
no box
A03/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
85-64
85
64
+21
84avg 87
H15/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
108-67
108
67
+41
115avg 87
H16/12
National League
Almaty
#3
W
82-72
82
72
+10
77avg 87
H22/12
National League
Almaty
#3
W
90-74
90
74
+16
78avg 87
H23/12
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
79-50
79
50
+29
87avg 87
A20/01
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-16
26-22
27-19
29-16
14-18
23-19
23-20
18-4
28-24
26-11
23-21
19-7
21-20
26-16
27-20
23-15
14-18
17-18
28-11
16-16
22-22
18-13
21-10
24-19
29-16
33-12
30-15
16-24
25-11
24-21
19-21
14-19
24-20
16-18
20-15
30-21
22-11
17-11
24-17
16-11
155.4Avg total
89.6Scored
65.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)90.464.0154.4+26.4100%
Season at home (8)88.867.9156.6+20.9100%
Season away (9)91.860.6152.3+31.2100%
Last 10 (10)89.665.8155.4+23.8100%
Last 5 (5)88.865.4154.2+23.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)68.493.8162.2-25.48%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (17)90.464.0154.4+26.4100%
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: +4.7+4.7Q2Q2: -4.6-4.6Q2: +6.5+6.5Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +7.3+7.3Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: +5.3+5.3
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: +4.7+4.7Q2Q2: -4.6-4.6Q2: +6.5+6.5Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +7.3+7.3Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: +5.3+5.3
AtyrauAstana
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AtyrauLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astana
#1
L
35-54
35
54
-19
A26/11
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H07/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H08/12
National League
Almaty
#3
W
46-31
46
31
+15
A13/12
National League
Almaty
#3
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A14/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
51-36
51
36
+15
H22/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H23/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
39-58
39
58
-19
A11/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A12/01
National League
Astana
#1
L
22-39
22
39
-17
H20/01
National League
82.7Avg total
40.3Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.540.779.2-2.337%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.242.481.7-3.231%-
Last 30 away (14)37.638.876.4-1.243%-
Last 10 (10)40.342.482.7-2.150%-
Last 5 (5)40.042.682.6-2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)37.043.680.6-6.621%-
vs Similar (12)38.340.478.8-2.133%-
vs Weaker (4)44.031.575.5+12.5100%-
This opponent (Astana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AstanaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Almaty
#3
W
50-38
50
38
+12
A09/11
National League
Atyrau
#4
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H25/11
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
54-35
54
35
+19
H26/11
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
47-36
47
36
+11
A02/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A03/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H15/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
62-28
62
28
+34
H16/12
National League
Almaty
#3
W
49-32
49
32
+17
H22/12
National League
Almaty
#3
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H23/12
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
39-22
39
22
+17
A20/01
National League
78.6Avg total
44.9Scored
33.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.438.379.6+3.153%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.440.081.4+1.450%-
Last 30 away (16)41.336.878.1+4.656%-
Last 10 (10)44.933.778.6+11.280%-
Last 5 (5)46.031.077.0+15.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)34.846.481.2-11.68%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (17)46.432.178.5+14.488%-
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Atyrautheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Atyrau: 72.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀37%
🏀🏀🏀47%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers26.7 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.313.3
35.7%
50.5%26.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.011.3
36.6%
30.4%34.0
🏀 Free throws16.311.3
69.4%
69.6%11.3
They take 68.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Astanatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Astana: 75.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.917.6
49.0%
50.5%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.79.1
29.6%
30.4%27.3
🏀 Free throws17.812.8
71.9%
69.6%12.8
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 3/10 games with a box score before 21 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Atyrau
LWLWWWWLLL
Astana
WWWWWWWWWW
#4
League position
#1
-16.5
Net rating
-19.1
96.1
Offensive rating
95.5
112.6
Defensive rating
114.6
44.4%
Effective FG%
46.9%
50.0%
Opp. effective FG%
55.7%
0.0%
Turnover %
16.6%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.27
36.6%
3-point %
29.6%
81.1%
Assist %
67.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
100%

Profile

Offence96.1 · 95.5Defence112.6 · 114.6Shooting44.4% · 46.9%3-point %36.6% · 29.6%Ball care0.0% · 16.6%Free throws0.24 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 100%
■ Atyrau   ■ Astana
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Atyrau wins
9
Astana wins
DateGameScore
20/01/26Atyrau v Astana50-79
26/11/25Astana v Atyrau96-63
25/11/25Astana v Atyrau78-61
19/10/25Atyrau v Astana64-99
18/10/25Atyrau v Astana61-87
06/05/23Atyrau v Astana52-58
02/05/23Astana v Atyrau84-46
01/05/23Astana v Atyrau110-62
18/04/23Astana v Atyrau80-71
17/04/23Astana v Atyrau67-88
Atyraulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/26HAstana50-79
12/01/26AKaspiy Aktau75-73
11/01/26AKaspiy Aktau91-101
23/12/25HTobol Kostanay90-72
22/12/25HTobol Kostanay94-72
14/12/25AAlmaty83-73
13/12/25AAlmaty92-88
08/12/25HKaspiy Aktau64-78
07/12/25HKaspiy Aktau68-92
26/11/25AAstana63-96
Astanalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/26AAtyrau79-50
23/12/25HAlmaty90-74
22/12/25HAlmaty82-72
16/12/25HTobol Kostanay108-67
15/12/25HTobol Kostanay85-64
03/12/25AKaspiy Aktau75-63
02/12/25AKaspiy Aktau97-71
26/11/25HAtyrau96-63
25/11/25HAtyrau78-61
09/11/25AAlmaty106-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Atyrau
National League 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL47%
HomeLLWWL22%
AwayLWWLW70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %47%22%70%
Points / game78.676.280.8
Allowed / game82.186.877.9
Point differential-3.5-10.6+2.9
Avg total160.7163.0158.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%22%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %5%11%0%
Astana
National League 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game90.488.891.8
Allowed / game64.067.960.6
Point differential+26.4+20.9+31.2
Avg total154.4156.6152.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Astana17170100%90.464.0+26.4
2 Almaty1811761%87.478.3+9.1
3 Atyrau1991047%78.682.1-3.5
4 Kaspiy Aktau1871139%79.177.2+1.9
5 Tobol Kostanay181176%64.897.1-32.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Atyrau1813211668
Astana1927252697
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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