Astana vs Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 15 Dec 2025

Tip-off: 13:00

Final 85-64

22-22 18-13 21-10 24-19

Position#1

Record12-0

FormWWWWW

Points / game91.0

Allowed / game63.4

Astana 🏆

Tobol Kostanay

Position#5

Record0-10

FormLLLLL

Points / game60.4

Allowed / game96.0

National League· Saryarka Velodrome

Other2025-26

Meetings · Astana v Tobol Kostanay

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Astana winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Tobol Kostanay winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Astana

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormAstana

Date

Competition

Tobol Kostanay

88-56

+32

84avg 86

A26/10

National League

Tobol Kostanay

103-54

103

+49

101avg 86

A27/10

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

84-68

+16

72avg 86

H03/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

87-74

+13

79avg 86

H04/11

National League

Almaty

92-53

+39

84avg 86

A08/11

National League

Almaty

106-73

106

+33

106avg 86

A09/11

National League

Atyrau

78-61

+17

78avg 86

H25/11

National League

Atyrau

96-63

+33

99avg 86

H26/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

97-71

+26

103avg 86

A02/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

75-63

+12

no box

A03/12

National League

26-16

14-15

26-16

22-9

36-13

23-11

22-17

22-13

26-18

22-13

14-18

22-19

20-22

22-10

25-18

20-24

24-16

25-11

23-8

20-18

24-16

26-22

27-19

29-16

14-18

23-19

23-20

18-4

28-24

26-11

23-21

19-7

21-20

26-16

27-20

23-15

14-18

17-18

28-11

16-16

154.2Avg total

90.6Scored

63.6Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (12)	91.0	63.4	154.4	+27.6	100%
Season at home (4)	86.2	66.5	152.8	+19.8	100%
Season away (8)	93.4	61.9	155.2	+31.5	100%
Last 10 (10)	90.6	63.6	154.2	+27.0	100%
Last 5 (5)	90.4	66.2	156.6	+24.2	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)	68.8	94.7	163.6	-25.9	6%
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	91.0	63.4	154.4	+27.6	100%

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormKostanay

Date

Competition

Almaty

58-95

-37

36avg 74

A11/10

National League

Almaty

60-105

105

-45

32avg 74

A12/10

National League

Astana

56-88

-32

45avg 74

H26/10

National League

Astana

54-103

103

-49

39avg 74

H27/10

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

61-84

-23

45avg 74

H08/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

74-104

104

-30

57avg 74

H09/11

National League

Atyrau

60-87

-27

43avg 74

H18/11

National League

Atyrau

56-86

-30

37avg 74

H19/11

National League

Almaty

63-105

105

-42

46avg 74

H27/11

National League

Almaty

62-103

103

-41

44avg 74

H28/11

National League

12-28

11-30

18-23

17-14

14-31

5-31

27-26

14-17

16-26

15-14

16-26

9-22

13-36

11-23

17-22

13-22

17-25

19-23

12-15

13-21

17-26

20-27

20-26

17-25

16-25

18-18

16-23

10-21

12-17

7-22

22-31

15-16

21-23

15-30

20-24

7-28

9-33

10-17

28-24

15-29

156.4Avg total

60.4Scored

96.0Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (10)	60.4	96.0	156.4	-35.6	0%
Season at home (8)	60.8	95.0	155.8	-34.2	0%
Season away (2)	59.0	100.0	159.0	-41.0	0%
Last 10 (10)	60.4	96.0	156.4	-35.6	0%
Last 5 (5)	63.0	97.0	160.0	-34.0	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	60.4	96.0	156.4	-35.6	0%
vs Similar (2)	83.5	77.0	160.5	+6.5	50%
vs Weaker (18)	85.7	83.0	168.7	+2.7	61%

This opponent (Astana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

AstanaTobol Kostanay

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.7	21.3	42.0	-0.6	43%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	20.2	22.6	42.8	-2.3	33%	-
Last 30 away (18)	21.0	20.4	41.4	+0.6	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.3	18.1	41.4	+5.2	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.2	19.2	39.4	+1.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)	18.6	24.0	42.6	-5.4	22%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	23.8	17.2	41.0	+6.7	75%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	20.8	24.2	45.1	-3.4	28%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	20.7	24.5	45.2	-3.8	26%	-
Last 30 away (10)	21.1	23.7	44.8	-2.6	30%	-
Last 10 (10)	14.7	27.0	41.7	-12.3	0%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.0	24.8	39.8	-9.8	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	14.7	27.0	41.7	-12.3	0%	-
vs Similar (2)	23.5	25.5	49.0	-2.0	50%	-
vs Weaker (17)	24.1	22.5	46.6	+1.6	41%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.6	20.7	39.3	-2.1	40%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	18.5	21.4	39.9	-2.9	50%	-
Last 30 away (18)	18.7	20.3	38.9	-1.6	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.4	14.6	37.0	+7.8	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.6	17.2	40.8	+6.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)	15.8	24.3	40.2	-8.5	11%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	22.8	15.3	38.1	+7.4	83%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	18.5	22.4	41.0	-3.9	31%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	19.0	21.3	40.3	-2.3	37%	-
Last 30 away (10)	17.6	24.7	42.3	-7.1	20%	-
Last 10 (10)	13.1	23.5	36.6	-10.4	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	14.0	22.8	36.8	-8.8	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	13.1	23.5	36.6	-10.4	10%	-
vs Similar (2)	14.5	16.5	31.0	-2.0	0%	-
vs Weaker (17)	22.2	22.5	44.7	-0.4	47%	-

AstanaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Tobol Kostanay

40-31

A26/10

National League

Tobol Kostanay

59-24

+35

A27/10

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

48-31

+17

H03/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

42-32

+10

H04/11

National League

Almaty

49-27

+22

A08/11

National League

Almaty

50-38

+12

A09/11

National League

Atyrau

37-37

H25/11

National League

Atyrau

54-35

+19

H26/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

47-36

+11

A02/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

31-36

-5

A03/12

National League

78.4Avg total

45.7Scored

32.7Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	39.3	42.0	81.3	-2.7	37%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	38.8	44.0	82.8	-5.2	25%	-
Last 30 away (18)	39.7	40.7	80.3	-1.0	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	45.7	32.7	78.4	+13.0	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.8	36.4	80.2	+7.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)	34.4	48.3	82.8	-13.9	6%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	46.6	32.5	79.1	+14.1	83%	-

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Tobol KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Almaty

23-58

-35

A11/10

National League

Almaty

19-62

-43

A12/10

National League

Astana

31-40

-9

H26/10

National League

Astana

24-59

-35

H27/10

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

36-48

-12

H08/11

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

37-53

-16

H09/11

National League

Atyrau

34-43

-9

H18/11

National League

Atyrau

19-39

-20

H19/11

National League

Almaty

36-53

-17

H27/11

National League

Almaty

19-50

-31

H28/11

National League

78.3Avg total

27.8Scored

50.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	39.3	46.7	86.0	-7.3	28%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	39.7	45.8	85.5	-6.1	26%	-
Last 30 away (10)	38.7	48.4	87.1	-9.7	30%	-
Last 10 (10)	27.8	50.5	78.3	-22.7	0%	-
Last 5 (5)	29.0	47.6	76.6	-18.6	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	27.8	50.5	78.3	-22.7	0%	-
vs Similar (2)	38.0	42.0	80.0	-4.0	0%	-
vs Weaker (17)	46.3	45.0	91.3	+1.3	47%	-

This opponent (Astana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.9	20.8	39.7	-1.9	37%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	17.4	21.5	38.9	-4.1	33%	-
Last 30 away (18)	19.9	20.3	40.2	-0.4	39%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.8	16.8	40.6	+7.0	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	25.6	18.2	43.8	+7.4	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)	16.2	23.3	39.4	-7.1	6%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	23.0	17.1	40.1	+5.9	83%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	21.8	22.9	44.6	-1.1	38%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	22.5	21.9	44.5	+0.6	42%	-
Last 30 away (10)	20.3	24.6	44.9	-4.3	30%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.6	24.0	43.6	-4.4	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.2	25.6	46.8	-4.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	19.6	24.0	43.6	-4.4	20%	-
vs Similar (2)	25.0	16.5	41.5	+8.5	100%	-
vs Weaker (17)	22.6	22.9	45.6	-0.3	41%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.4	19.3	38.7	+0.2	47%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	17.2	18.8	36.0	-1.5	42%	-
Last 30 away (18)	20.9	19.6	40.5	+1.3	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.1	14.1	35.2	+7.0	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.0	11.6	32.6	+9.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)	18.1	22.9	41.0	-4.8	22%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	21.4	13.8	35.2	+7.6	83%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	17.7	20.3	38.0	-2.6	31%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	16.9	20.7	37.6	-3.8	26%	-
Last 30 away (10)	19.3	19.4	38.7	-0.1	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	13.0	21.5	34.5	-8.5	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	12.8	23.8	36.6	-11.0	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	13.0	21.5	34.5	-8.5	10%	-
vs Similar (2)	20.5	18.5	39.0	+2.0	50%	-
vs Weaker (17)	20.2	19.8	39.9	+0.4	41%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	38.3	40.1	78.4	-1.7	43%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	34.7	40.2	74.9	-5.6	42%	-
Last 30 away (18)	40.8	39.9	80.7	+0.8	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	44.9	30.9	75.8	+14.0	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	46.6	29.8	76.4	+16.8	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)	34.3	46.2	80.4	-11.9	11%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker ◀ (12)	44.4	30.9	75.3	+13.5	92%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	39.5	43.1	82.6	-3.7	38%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	39.4	42.7	82.1	-3.3	42%	-
Last 30 away (10)	39.6	44.0	83.6	-4.4	30%	-
Last 10 (10)	32.6	45.5	78.1	-12.9	0%	-
Last 5 (5)	34.0	49.4	83.4	-15.4	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	32.6	45.5	78.1	-12.9	0%	-
vs Similar (2)	45.5	35.0	80.5	+10.5	100%	-
vs Weaker (17)	42.8	42.7	85.5	+0.1	53%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Astanatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Astana: 72.3 points a game scored

🏀🏀47%

🏀🏀🏀37%

🏀16%

🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 47% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 37% of the points

🏀 Free throws11.5 pts a game · 16% of the points

League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game

49%

33%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.3	16.9	47.9%	50.5%	33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.3	9.0	29.7%	30.4%	27.0
🏀 Free throws	16.1	11.5	71.4%	69.6%	11.5

They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Tobol Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

No box scores for this team yet.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.6	21.0	57.4%	50.5%	42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.5	11.3	38.3%	30.4%	33.9
🏀 Free throws	21.2	16.2	76.4%	69.6%	16.2

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.4	17.7	51.5%	50.5%	35.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.6	8.6	32.4%	30.4%	25.8
🏀 Free throws	13.2	9.3	70.9%	69.6%	9.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.8	19.8	55.4%	50.5%	39.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.8	10.2	36.6%	30.4%	30.5
🏀 Free throws	19.5	14.8	75.8%	69.6%	14.8

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Astana wins

Tobol Kostanay wins

Date	Game	Score
27/10/25	Tobol Kostanay v Astana	54-103
26/10/25	Tobol Kostanay v Astana	56-88
31/03/23	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	88-71
30/03/23	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	84-51
29/12/22	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	114-56
28/12/22	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	95-45
30/10/22	Tobol Kostanay v Astana	90-83
29/10/22	Tobol Kostanay v Astana	102-81
28/04/22	Tobol Kostanay v Astana	59-104
26/04/22	Astana v Tobol Kostanay	101-60

Astanalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
03/12/25	A	Kaspiy Aktau	75-63
02/12/25	A	Kaspiy Aktau	97-71
26/11/25	H	Atyrau	96-63
25/11/25	H	Atyrau	78-61
09/11/25	A	Almaty	106-73
08/11/25	A	Almaty	92-53
04/11/25	H	Kaspiy Aktau	87-74
03/11/25	H	Kaspiy Aktau	84-68
27/10/25	A	Tobol Kostanay	103-54
26/10/25	A	Tobol Kostanay	88-56

Tobol Kostanaylast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
28/11/25	H	Almaty	62-103
27/11/25	H	Almaty	63-105
19/11/25	H	Atyrau	56-86
18/11/25	H	Atyrau	60-87
09/11/25	H	Kaspiy Aktau	74-104
08/11/25	H	Kaspiy Aktau	61-84
27/10/25	H	Astana	54-103
26/10/25	H	Astana	56-88
12/10/25	A	Almaty	60-105
11/10/25	A	Almaty	58-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Astana

National League 2025-26

Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWW	100%
Home	WWWW	100%
Away	WWWWW	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	12	4	8
Win %	100%	100%	100%
Points / game	91.0	86.2	93.4
Allowed / game	63.4	66.5	61.9
Point differential	+27.6	+19.8	+31.5
Avg total	154.4	152.8	155.2
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	100%	100%	100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Tobol Kostanay

National League 2025-26

Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLLL	0%
Home	LLLLL	0%
Away	LL	0%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	10	8	2
Win %	0%	0%	0%
Points / game	60.4	60.8	59.0
Allowed / game	96.0	95.0	100.0
Point differential	-35.6	-34.2	-41.0
Avg total	156.4	155.8	159.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Astana	12	12	0	100%	91.0	63.4	+27.6
2	Almaty	14	9	5	64%	85.5	78.1	+7.4
3	Atyrau	14	6	8	43%	78.1	83.1	-4.9
4	Kaspiy Aktau	14	5	9	36%	76.4	77.1	-0.7
5	Tobol Kostanay	10	0	10	0%	60.4	96.0	-35.6

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Astana	22	18	21	24	85
Tobol Kostanay	22	13	10	19	64

← all games of the day

Astana vs Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

Manage Cookies

Strictly Necessary

Functionality Cookies

Performance Cookies

Third Party Marketing/Targeting

A Pro feature