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Auburn vs Arizona Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 80-76
Projected total 156.3
Final 69-80
32-36 37-44
Position#157
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game83.5
Allowed / game56.0
Auburn
USA
Vs
63%
37%
■ AUBU 63%■ ARIZ 37%
Pythia win probability
Arizona 🏆
USA
Position#115
Record2-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game89.7
Allowed / game75.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Auburn faces Arizona in the NCAA on 13 November 2026, with the model favouring the Tigers who are expected to win 63% of the time and score 80 points against Arizona's 76, a projected total of 156.3 that sits just below the 157.5 over/under line where the model gives a 46% chance of the over; the home line of 1.5 gives a 66% probability that Auburn covers. Auburn enters the game undefeated 2-0, averaging 83.5 points and allowing 56.0, and has won both of its home games 2-0 with a 83.5 points per game average at home, while its last five games show three wins and two losses. Arizona is 2-1 overall, scoring 89.7 and allowing 75.7, with a 0-1 road record and a 75.0 points per game average on the road, and its last five games also record three wins and two losses.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Auburn winLost
63.4%fair 1.58
Best odds2.30
Implied41.9%
Edge+21.5pp
Arizona winWon
36.6%fair 2.73
Best odds1.69
Implied58.1%
Edge-21.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AuburnUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mississippi St.
#257
L
85-91
85
91
-6
A19/02
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
75-74
75
74
+1
H22/02
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
79-91
79
91
-12
A25/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
79-85
79
85
-6
H01/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
88-74
88
74
+14
H04/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
84-96
84
96
-12
A08/03
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
79-61
79
61
+18
H11/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
62-72
62
72
-10
A12/03
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#296
W
92-59
92
59
+33
H05/11
NCAA
Appalachian State
#204
W
75-53
75
53
+22
H10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-49
52-42
35-39
40-35
42-51
37-40
37-38
42-47
41-34
47-40
31-50
53-46
30-33
49-28
32-25
30-47
42-25
50-34
38-36
37-17
155.4Avg total
79.8Scored
75.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)83.556.0139.5+27.5100%
Season at home (2)83.556.0139.5+27.5100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.875.6155.4+4.250%
Last 5 (5)78.468.2146.6+10.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)78.086.0164.0-8.023%
vs Similar ◀ (11)84.578.4162.9+6.264%
vs Weaker (6)81.067.3148.3+13.783%
This opponent (Arizona) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArizonaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iowa State
#34
W
82-80
82
80
+2
H13/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
W
79-74
79
74
+5
H14/03
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
92-58
92
58
+34
H20/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H23/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
109-88
109
88
+21
H27/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
79-64
79
64
+15
H29/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
73-91
73
91
-18
H05/04
NCAA
UCLA
#3
L
75-84
75
84
-9
A03/11
NCAA
Cal Poly
#239
W
104-84
104
84
+20
H06/11
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#377
W
90-59
90
59
+31
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
37-43
45-37
44-36
35-38
53-29
39-29
33-24
45-42
54-43
55-45
31-38
48-26
32-48
41-43
29-43
46-41
59-41
45-43
46-22
44-37
160.9Avg total
86.1Scored
74.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)89.775.7165.3+14.067%
Season at home (2)97.071.5168.5+25.5100%
Season away (1)75.084.0159.0-9.00%
Last 10 (10)86.174.8160.9+11.380%
Last 5 (5)84.276.4160.6+7.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)75.084.0159.0-9.00%
vs Similar ◀ (5)76.073.6149.6+2.480%
vs Weaker (24)87.570.5157.9+17.092%
This opponent (Auburn) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
56.1%
@ 1.47-7.6pp
Under 153.5
43.9%
@ 2.55+7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
44.0%
@ 1.90-6.5pp
Under 158.5
56.0%
@ 1.98+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Under
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
32.6%
@ 2.55-5.5pp
Under 163.5
67.4%
@ 1.53+5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Auburn total 74Actual: Auburn under 74
Over 74
73.1%
Under 74
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auburn total 78 · main lineActual: Auburn under 78
Over 78
58.4%
@ 1.85+8.4pp
Under 78
41.6%
@ 1.85-8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Auburn total 82Actual: Auburn under 82
Over 82
42.2%
Under 82
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arizona total 76Actual: Arizona over 76
Over 76
50.4%
Under 76
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arizona total 80 · main linePush
Over 80
34.9%
@ 1.85-15.1pp
Under 80
65.1%
@ 1.85+15.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Arizona total 83.5Actual: Arizona under 83.5
Over 83.5
no forecast
@ 2.20
Under 83.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.53

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Auburn 0Actual: Arizona 0
AUBU 0
63.4%
ARIZ 0
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
AUBU
No market prices yet.
ARIZ
No market prices yet.
Spread Auburn +3 · main lineActual: Arizona -3
AUBU +3
71.8%
@ 1.93+22.0pp
ARIZ -3
28.2%
@ 1.92-22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
AUBU
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
ARIZ
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Auburn +6Actual: Arizona -6
AUBU +6
80.5%
ARIZ -6
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
AUBU
No market prices yet.
ARIZ
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.9-1.91st half: +5.1+5.12nd half2nd half: +6.1+6.12nd half: +6.2+6.2
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -1.9-1.91st half: +5.1+5.12nd half2nd half: +6.1+6.12nd half: +6.2+6.2
AuburnArizona
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
AuburnLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mississippi St.
#257
L
33-49
33
49
-16
A19/02
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H22/02
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
42-51
42
51
-9
A25/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H01/03
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H04/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
31-50
31
50
-19
A08/03
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H11/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
32-25
32
25
+7
A12/03
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#296
W
42-25
42
25
+17
H05/11
NCAA
Appalachian State
#204
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H10/11
NCAA
74.1Avg total
36.1Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)36.937.874.7-0.943%37%
Last 30 at home (17)38.636.174.7+2.659%35%
Last 30 away (13)34.540.174.6-5.523%38%
Last 10 (10)36.138.074.1-1.940%30%
Last 5 (5)34.633.868.4+0.860%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)35.240.875.9-5.631%46%
vs Similar ◀ (11)39.936.476.3+3.555%36%
vs Weaker (6)35.034.069.0+1.050%17%
This opponent (Arizona) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ArizonaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iowa State
#34
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H13/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H14/03
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
53-29
53
29
+24
H20/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
33-24
33
24
+9
H23/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H27/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H29/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
32-48
32
48
-16
H05/04
NCAA
UCLA
#3
L
29-43
29
43
-14
A03/11
NCAA
Cal Poly
#239
W
59-41
59
41
+18
H06/11
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#377
W
46-22
46
22
+24
H11/11
NCAA
78.5Avg total
41.8Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)41.534.175.6+7.470%43%
Last 30 at home (20)42.032.874.8+9.275%50%
Last 30 away (10)40.436.877.2+3.660%30%
Last 10 (10)41.836.778.5+5.160%60%
Last 5 (5)39.438.477.8+1.040%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)29.043.072.0-14.00%0%
vs Similar ◀ (5)37.236.673.8+0.660%60%
vs Weaker (24)42.933.276.2+9.775%42%
This opponent (Auburn) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Arizona win
AUBU win
no forecast
@ 2.15
ARIZ win
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Auburn +1.5 · main lineActual: Arizona -1.5
AUBU +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
ARIZ -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Auburn 1st half total 37.5 · main lineActual: Auburn under 37.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Arizona 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Arizona under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Spread Auburn +2.5Actual: Arizona -2.5
AUBU +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
ARIZ -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Auburn +3.5Actual: Arizona -3.5
AUBU +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
ARIZ -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.52
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Auburn -1.5Actual: Arizona +1.5
AUBU -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.42
ARIZ +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Auburn +4.5Actual: Auburn +4.5
AUBU +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
ARIZ -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Spread Auburn -2.5Actual: Arizona +2.5
AUBU -2.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
ARIZ +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Auburn +5.5Actual: Auburn +5.5
AUBU +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
ARIZ -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Arizona (regulation)
AUBU
no forecast
@ 2.20
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
ARIZ
no forecast
@ 1.78

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
AUBU win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
ARIZ win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: AUBU leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Auburn +371.8%1.86
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.85
SBO
1.81		--+22.0ppLost
Auburn +474.9%1.76
Pinnacle
1.76		----+20.4ppLost
Auburn +6.581.0%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+20.3ppLost
Auburn +3.572.6%1.81
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.78		--+20.3ppLost
Auburn +5.578.5%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+19.9ppLost
Auburn +577.8%1.64
Pinnacle
1.64		----+19.5ppLost
Auburn +7.583.4%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+19.4ppLost
Auburn +4.575.7%1.68
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67		---+19.0ppLost
Auburn +8.585.4%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+18.7ppLost
Auburn +9.587.3%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+18.0ppLost
Auburn +10.589.0%1.28
Betano
1.28		----+16.9ppLost
Auburn over 74.570.8%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+7.0ppLost
Auburn over 73.574.0%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+7.0ppLost
Auburn over 70.582.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+6.4ppLost
Auburn over 69.585.0%1.16
Bet365
1.16		----+5.5ppLost
Under 165.571.6%1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.37		---+5.4ppWon
Under 166.573.5%1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33		---+5.2ppWon
Under 16571.0%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+4.7ppWon
Overtime: no94.9%1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03		---+4.5ppWon
Under 16673.0%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+3.5ppWon
Arizona over 61.592.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.3ppWon
Arizona over 63.589.1%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----2.4ppWon
Arizona over 65.585.0%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----5.2ppWon
Arizona over 67.579.9%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----8.4ppWon
Arizona over 69.574.0%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----11.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Auburn wins
1
Arizona wins
DateGameScore
07/12/25Arizona v Auburn97-68
Auburnlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HAppalachian State75-53
05/11/26HSE Louisiana92-59
12/03/26ATennessee62-72
11/03/26HMississippi St.79-61
08/03/26AAlabama84-96
04/03/26HLSU88-74
01/03/26HOle Miss79-85
25/02/26AOklahoma79-91
22/02/26HKentucky75-74
19/02/26AMississippi St.85-91
Arizonalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HNorthern Arizona90-59
06/11/26HCal Poly104-84
03/11/26AUCLA75-84
05/04/26HMichigan73-91
29/03/26HPurdue79-64
27/03/26HArkansas109-88
23/03/26HUtah State78-66
20/03/26HLIU Sharks92-58
14/03/26HHouston79-74
13/03/26HIowa State82-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Auburn
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game83.583.5-
Allowed / game56.056.0-
Point differential+27.5+27.5-
Avg total139.5139.5-
Over 158.50%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Arizona
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game89.797.075.0
Allowed / game75.771.584.0
Point differential+14.0+25.5-9.0
Avg total165.3168.5159.0
Over 158.567%50%100%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 LSU330100%94.052.7+41.3
3 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
4 Mississippi St.330100%95.363.0+32.3
5 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
6 Vanderbilt440100%90.260.2+30.0
7 Auburn220100%83.556.0+27.5
8 Alabama330100%102.076.0+26.0
9 South Carolina330100%78.754.7+24.0
10 Florida440100%82.262.5+19.8
11 Tennessee330100%81.061.3+19.7
12 Georgia440100%81.870.2+11.5
13 Arkansas43175%83.267.8+15.5
14 Oklahoma43175%75.863.8+12.0
15 Kentucky43175%80.275.8+4.5
16 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Baylor330100%95.359.7+35.7
2 West Virginia330100%85.753.3+32.3
3 Kansas330100%91.059.7+31.3
4 TCU440100%95.067.2+27.8
5 Brigham Young440100%96.575.8+20.8
6 Arizona State330100%83.363.7+19.7
7 Texas Tech330100%78.759.3+19.3
8 Utah Utes330100%72.761.3+11.3
9 UCF Knights440100%85.877.2+8.5
10 Houston32167%84.762.3+22.3
11 Oklahoma State32167%92.772.0+20.7
12 Iowa State32167%81.061.3+19.7
13 Arizona32167%89.775.7+14.0
14 Cincinnati32167%73.760.0+13.7
15 Colorado32167%81.070.3+10.7
16 Kansas State32167%83.376.0+7.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Auburn323769
Arizona364480
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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