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Ball State vs Buffalo Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 53-63
27-30 26-33
Position#288
Record8-15
FormWWLLW
Points / game66.9
Allowed / game70.1
vs
Position#180
Record14-10
FormLWLLL
Points / game79.3
Allowed / game75.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Ball State v Buffalo
30 Jan 2027
BALL v BUFF
upcoming
11 Feb 2026
BALL53
BUFF63
22 Feb 2025
BALL80
BUFF66
24 Jan 2023
BALL65
BUFF91
14 Jan 2022
BALL68
BUFF74
02 Feb 2021
BALL58
BUFF78
07 Jan 2020
BALL88
BUFF68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ball State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Buffalo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ball StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Buffalo
#180
L
72-85
72
85
-13
A03/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
L
52-74
52
74
-22
H07/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
71-79
71
79
-8
A10/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
77-87
77
87
-10
A14/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
76-71
76
71
+5
H17/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
68-67
68
67
+1
A21/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
58-53
58
53
+5
H24/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
55-73
55
73
-18
A31/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
52-77
52
77
-25
A04/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
73-68
73
68
+5
A07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
25-41
47-44
25-39
27-35
25-28
46-51
34-43
43-44
44-31
32-40
33-20
35-47
29-22
29-31
27-39
28-34
27-40
25-37
36-27
37-41
138.8Avg total
65.4Scored
73.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)66.970.1137.0-3.335%
Season at home (10)73.765.3139.0+8.460%
Season away (13)61.673.8135.5-12.215%
Last 10 (10)65.473.4138.8-8.040%
Last 5 (5)61.267.6128.8-6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)66.680.2146.8-13.70%
vs Similar ◀ (13)64.470.8135.2-6.523%
vs Weaker (6)71.266.3137.5+4.883%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ball State
#288
W
85-72
85
72
+13
H03/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
80-91
80
91
-11
A10/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
81-87
81
87
-6
H13/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
102-105 OT
102
105
-3
A17/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
63-82
63
82
-19
H20/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
67-68
67
68
-1
H24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
89-78
89
78
+11
A28/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
83-95
83
95
-12
H31/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H03/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
69-81
69
81
-12
A07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
41-25
44-47
47-44
33-47
30-44
51-43
48-46
40-42
27-43
36-39
29-38
38-30
39-32
50-46
31-46
52-49
35-38
36-35
24-40
45-41
162.2Avg total
79.0Scored
83.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)79.375.8155.0+3.558%
Season at home (13)79.376.6155.9+2.754%
Season away (11)79.374.7154.0+4.564%
Last 10 (10)79.083.2162.2-4.220%
Last 5 (5)75.879.0154.8-3.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)75.783.0158.7-7.327%
vs Similar ◀ (11)78.479.0157.4-0.645%
vs Weaker (7)77.367.0144.3+10.386%
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -2.5-2.51st half: -4.5-4.52nd half2nd half: -5.5-5.52nd half: +0.6+0.6
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: -2.5-2.51st half: -4.5-4.52nd half2nd half: -5.5-5.52nd half: +0.6+0.6
Ball StateBuffalo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Ball StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Buffalo
#180
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A03/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
L
25-39
25
39
-14
H07/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
25-28
25
28
-3
A10/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A14/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H17/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
33-20
33
20
+13
A21/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
29-22
29
22
+7
H24/01
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
27-39
27
39
-12
A31/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
L
27-40
27
40
-13
A04/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A07/02
NCAA
63.5Avg total
30.5Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.031.863.9+0.240%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.631.167.7+5.457%-
Last 30 away (16)28.132.460.5-4.425%-
Last 10 (10)30.533.063.5-2.540%-
Last 5 (5)30.429.660.0+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)30.839.670.3-8.811%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)30.830.561.2+0.338%-
vs Weaker (6)34.027.861.8+6.267%-
This opponent (Buffalo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ball State
#288
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H03/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
47-44
47
44
+3
A10/01
NCAA
Kent State
#52
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H13/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A17/01
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H20/01
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
29-38
29
38
-9
H24/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#143
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A28/01
NCAA
Ohio
#241
L
31-46
31
46
-15
H31/01
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H03/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
24-40
24
40
-16
A07/02
NCAA
74.7Avg total
35.1Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.536.773.2-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.738.172.8-3.425%-
Last 30 away (14)38.635.173.7+3.671%-
Last 10 (10)35.139.674.7-4.540%-
Last 5 (5)31.638.870.4-7.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)34.241.475.5-7.227%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)34.436.570.9-2.236%-
vs Weaker (7)41.629.671.1+12.086%-
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Ball State wins
7
Buffalo wins
DateGameScore
03/01/26Buffalo v Ball State85-72
22/02/25Ball State v Buffalo80-66
01/02/25Buffalo v Ball State76-89
24/01/24Buffalo v Ball State59-87
25/01/23Ball State v Buffalo65-91
12/02/22Buffalo v Ball State80-74
14/01/22Ball State v Buffalo68-74
02/02/21Ball State v Buffalo58-78
09/01/21Buffalo v Ball State86-69
19/02/20Buffalo v Ball State72-59
Ball Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26ALouisiana Monroe73-68
04/02/26ABowling Green52-77
31/01/26AToledo55-73
24/01/26HNorthern Illinois58-53
21/01/26ACentral Michigan68-67
17/01/26HOhio76-71
14/01/26AAkron77-87
10/01/26AUMass71-79
07/01/26HEastern Michigan52-74
03/01/26ABuffalo72-85
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26ASouth Alabama69-81
03/02/26HMiami (Ohio)71-73
31/01/26HOhio83-95
28/01/26ABowling Green89-78
24/01/26HUMass67-68
20/01/26HAkron63-82
17/01/26AMiami (Ohio)102-105 OT
13/01/26HKent State81-87
10/01/26AOhio80-91
03/01/26HBall State85-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ball State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW35%
HomeLWLWW60%
AwayLWLLW15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231013
Win %35%60%15%
Points / game66.973.761.6
Allowed / game70.165.373.8
Point differential-3.3+8.4-12.2
Avg total137.0139.0135.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)67% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Buffalo
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL58%
HomeLLLLL54%
AwayWLLWL64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241311
Win %58%54%64%
Points / game79.379.379.3
Allowed / game75.876.674.7
Point differential+3.5+2.7+4.5
Avg total155.0155.9154.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%23%45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)33% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %4%0%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Miami (Ohio)24240100%92.774.3+18.4
2 Akron2419579%89.574.2+15.3
3 Kent State2416867%85.880.3+5.4
4 UMass25151060%80.675.8+4.8
5 Bowling Green24141058%83.071.0+12.1
6 Buffalo24141058%79.375.8+3.5
7 Ohio25131252%77.777.3+0.4
8 Toledo24121250%80.977.5+3.5
9 Eastern Michigan2491538%70.772.4-1.7
10 Northern Illinois2281436%73.076.4-3.3
11 Ball State2381535%66.970.1-3.3
12 Western Michigan2381535%74.679.6-5.0
13 Central Michigan2471729%73.478.6-5.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Ball State272653
Buffalo303363
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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