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Ball State vs Toledo Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 03 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 81-87
35-40 46-47
Position#103
Record20-10
FormWLWLL
Points / game76.5
Allowed / game70.5
Ball State
USA
vs
Toledo 🏆
USA
Position#18
Record24-6
FormWWWWW
Points / game85.7
Allowed / game75.9
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Ball State v Toledo
19 Jan 2027
BALL v TOLE
upcoming
18 Jan 2025
BALL75
TOLE93
03 Mar 2023
BALL81
TOLE87
04 Feb 2022
BALL93
TOLE83
06 Feb 2021
BALL81
TOLE67
03 Jan 2020
BALL61
TOLE57
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ball State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toledo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ball StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#271
W
87-69
87
69
+18
A28/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#296
W
69-60
69
60
+9
A01/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#347
W
91-90 OT
91
90
+1
H03/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#324
W
65-51
65
51
+14
A08/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#296
W
93-72
93
72
+21
H11/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#271
W
87-77
87
77
+10
H15/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#345
L
68-78
68
78
-10
A18/02
NCAA
Kent State
#17
W
82-70
82
70
+12
H22/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#347
L
68-75
68
75
-7
A25/02
NCAA
Akron
#59
L
83-87
83
87
-4
A01/03
NCAA
1H
2H
49-33
38-36
40-26
29-34
37-40
41-38
37-31
28-20
49-33
44-39
43-33
44-44
29-36
39-42
32-33
50-37
37-27
31-48
41-36
42-51
152.2Avg total
79.3Scored
72.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)76.570.5147.0+6.067%
Season at home (16)79.268.9148.1+10.488%
Season away (14)73.372.4145.6+0.943%
Last 10 (10)79.372.9152.2+6.470%
Last 5 (5)77.677.4155.0+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)76.878.7155.5-1.850%
vs Similar (7)69.468.3137.7+1.143%
vs Weaker (15)76.870.3147.1+6.580%
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bowling Green
#296
W
91-77
91
77
+14
H28/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
W
81-78
81
78
+3
A01/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#324
W
84-59
84
59
+25
H05/02
NCAA
Akron
#59
W
84-74
84
74
+10
A08/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#347
W
70-63
70
63
+7
A12/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
W
89-71
89
71
+18
H15/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#296
W
91-86
91
86
+5
A18/02
NCAA
Akron
#59
W
84-63
84
63
+21
H22/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#231
W
101-71
101
71
+30
H25/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#324
W
99-65
99
65
+34
A01/03
NCAA
1H
2H
41-31
50-46
40-35
41-43
49-21
35-38
37-28
47-46
34-31
36-32
47-31
42-40
32-34
59-52
37-24
47-39
56-36
45-35
45-34
54-31
158.1Avg total
87.4Scored
70.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)85.775.9161.6+9.880%
Season at home (16)89.775.8165.5+13.988%
Season away (14)81.176.0157.1+5.171%
Last 10 (10)87.470.7158.1+16.7100%
Last 5 (5)92.871.2164.0+21.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)83.377.7161.0+5.671%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)85.774.8160.5+10.982%
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +6.6+6.61st half: +11.3+11.32nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: +5.4+5.4
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +6.6+6.61st half: +11.3+11.32nd half2nd half: -0.3-0.32nd half: +5.4+5.4
Ball StateToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Ball StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Illinois
#271
W
49-33
49
33
+16
A28/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#296
W
40-26
40
26
+14
A01/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#347
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H03/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#324
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A08/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#296
W
49-33
49
33
+16
H11/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#271
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H15/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#345
L
29-36
29
36
-7
A18/02
NCAA
Kent State
#17
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H22/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#347
W
37-27
37
27
+10
A25/02
NCAA
Akron
#59
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A01/03
NCAA
72.2Avg total
39.4Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.232.668.8+3.663%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.832.268.9+4.656%-
Last 30 away (14)35.633.168.6+2.571%-
Last 10 (10)39.432.872.2+6.670%-
Last 5 (5)36.433.069.4+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)33.737.571.2-3.833%-
vs Similar (7)32.031.663.6+0.443%-
vs Weaker (15)37.631.969.5+5.780%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bowling Green
#296
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H28/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A01/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#324
W
49-21
49
21
+28
H05/02
NCAA
Akron
#59
W
37-28
37
28
+9
A08/02
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#347
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A12/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#122
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H15/02
NCAA
Bowling Green
#296
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A18/02
NCAA
Akron
#59
W
37-24
37
24
+13
H22/02
NCAA
Buffalo
#231
W
56-36
56
36
+20
H25/02
NCAA
Central Michigan
#324
W
45-34
45
34
+11
A01/03
NCAA
72.3Avg total
41.8Scored
30.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.632.474.0+9.383%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.631.975.5+11.888%-
Last 30 away (14)39.432.972.3+6.479%-
Last 10 (10)41.830.572.3+11.390%-
Last 5 (5)43.431.875.2+11.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)40.933.474.3+7.471%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)41.631.973.5+9.786%-
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Ball State wins
4
Toledo wins
DateGameScore
04/01/23Toledo v Ball State83-90
05/02/22Ball State v Toledo93-83
19/01/22Toledo v Ball State83-70
11/03/21Toledo v Ball State91-89 OT
06/03/21Toledo v Ball State89-70
06/02/21Ball State v Toledo81-67
29/02/20Toledo v Ball State69-63
04/01/20Ball State v Toledo61-57
Ball Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/23AAkron83-87
25/02/23AEastern Michigan68-75
22/02/23HKent State82-70
18/02/23AWestern Michigan68-78
15/02/23HNorthern Illinois87-77
11/02/23HBowling Green93-72
08/02/23ACentral Michigan65-51
03/02/23HEastern Michigan91-90 OT
01/02/23ABowling Green69-60
28/01/23ANorthern Illinois87-69
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/23ACentral Michigan99-65
25/02/23HBuffalo101-71
22/02/23HAkron84-63
18/02/23ABowling Green91-86
15/02/23HMiami (FL)89-71
12/02/23AEastern Michigan70-63
08/02/23AAkron84-74
05/02/23HCentral Michigan84-59
01/02/23AMiami (FL)81-78
28/01/23HBowling Green91-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ball State
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL67%
HomeLWWWW88%
AwayWWLLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301614
Win %67%88%43%
Points / game76.579.273.3
Allowed / game70.568.972.4
Point differential+6.0+10.4+0.9
Avg total147.0148.1145.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%50%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)80% (5)0% (4)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Toledo
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW80%
HomeWWWWW88%
AwayWWWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301614
Win %80%88%71%
Points / game85.789.781.1
Allowed / game75.975.876.0
Point differential+9.8+13.9+5.1
Avg total161.6165.5157.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%69%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kent State3024680%75.664.7+10.9
2 Toledo3024680%85.775.9+9.8
3 Akron3022873%74.164.8+9.3
4 Ball State30201067%76.570.5+6.0
5 Ohio30171357%78.273.4+4.7
6 UMass29141548%70.871.8-1.0
7 Buffalo30141647%77.977.4+0.5
8 Northern Illinois30121840%72.175.3-3.2
9 Bowling Green30111937%76.678.1-1.5
10 Central Michigan30102033%65.872.7-7.0
11 Eastern Michigan3082227%72.480.7-8.2
12 Western Michigan3072323%69.574.3-4.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Ball State354681
Toledo404787
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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