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Ball State vs Toledo Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 20 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 00:00
Scheduled
Position#311
Record1-3
FormWLLWL
Points / game68.8
Allowed / game72.5
vs
Position#262
Record2-3
FormWLLLW
Points / game73.0
Allowed / game77.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Ball State v Toledo
19 Jan 2027
BALL v TOLE
upcoming
18 Jan 2025
BALL75
TOLE93
03 Mar 2023
BALL81
TOLE87
04 Feb 2022
BALL93
TOLE83
06 Feb 2021
BALL81
TOLE67
03 Jan 2020
BALL61
TOLE57
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ball State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Toledo win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ball StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio
#241
L
57-69
57
69
-12
A18/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
65-78
65
78
-13
H20/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
W
74-73 OT
74
73
+1
H25/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
79-43
79
43
+36
A28/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
74-71 OT
74
71
+3
A04/03
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
85-69
85
69
+16
H07/03
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#312
L
55-67
55
67
-12
A03/11
NCAA
Indiana State
#192
L
66-69
66
69
-3
H07/11
NCAA
Brescia
#393
W
89-64
89
64
+25
H10/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#33
L
65-90
65
90
-25
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
15-32
42-37
36-40
29-38
21-34
40-27
36-29
43-14
25-22
36-39
42-26
43-43
22-37
33-30
37-32
29-37
45-26
44-38
17-51
48-39
140.2Avg total
70.9Scored
69.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)68.872.5141.2-3.825%
Season at home (2)77.566.5144.0+11.050%
Season away (2)60.078.5138.5-18.50%
Last 10 (10)70.969.3140.2+1.650%
Last 5 (5)72.071.8143.8+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)66.777.7144.5-11.09%
vs Similar ◀ (13)66.371.2137.5-4.838%
vs Weaker (4)65.557.0122.5+8.575%
This opponent (Toledo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Algeciras
#13
W
100-79
100
79
+21
H18/10
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
81-90
81
90
-9
A25/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
W
93-81
93
81
+12
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Arkansas State
#228
L
70-71
70
71
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#28
L
61-91
61
91
-30
A06/11
NCAA
Marshall
#301
W
81-76
81
76
+5
A07/11
NCAA
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
L
77-85
77
85
-8
A08/11
Segunda FEB
Wright State
#41
L
68-76
68
76
-8
H11/11
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#6
L
80-88
80
88
-8
H14/11
Segunda FEB
Detroit
#453
W
85-72
85
72
+13
A14/11
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-15
19-25
25-22
30-17
22-18
21-28
13-17
25-27
23-22
30-20
15-17
25-22
0-0
35-36
0-0
35-35
0-0
25-48
0-0
36-43
0-0
27-38
0-0
54-38
15-14
23-27
18-19
21-25
0-0
31-36
0-0
37-40
21-26
26-17
19-21
14-24
0-0
42-40
0-0
43-32
160.5Avg total
79.6Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)73.077.2150.2-4.240%
Season at home (1)68.076.0144.0-8.00%
Season away (4)74.277.5151.8-3.250%
Last 10 (10)79.680.9160.5-1.340%
Last 5 (5)78.279.4157.6-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)72.179.3151.4-7.220%
vs Similar ◀ (12)81.876.1157.8+5.767%
vs Weaker (8)78.571.4149.9+7.175%
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -3.3-3.31st half: -2.4-2.42nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +1.1+1.1
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -3.3-3.31st half: -2.4-2.42nd half2nd half: +4.5+4.52nd half: +1.1+1.1
Ball StateToledo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Ball StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio
#241
L
15-32
15
32
-17
A18/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H20/02
NCAA
UMass
#189
L
21-34
21
34
-13
H25/02
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#342
W
36-29
36
29
+7
A28/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
25-22
25
22
+3
A04/03
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H07/03
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#312
L
22-37
22
37
-15
A03/11
NCAA
Indiana State
#192
W
37-32
37
32
+5
H07/11
NCAA
Brescia
#393
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H10/11
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#33
L
17-51
17
51
-34
A14/11
NCAA
62.5Avg total
29.6Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.932.563.4-1.637%-
Last 30 at home (14)35.631.867.4+3.950%-
Last 30 away (16)26.833.159.9-6.425%-
Last 10 (10)29.632.962.5-3.350%-
Last 5 (5)32.634.467.0-1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)30.138.768.8-8.618%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)28.531.159.5-2.631%-
vs Weaker (4)33.227.861.0+5.575%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Algeciras
#13
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H18/10
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A25/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Arkansas State
#228
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#28
L
25-48
25
48
-23
A06/11
NCAA
Marshall
#301
L
27-38
27
38
-11
A07/11
NCAA
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A08/11
Segunda FEB
Wright State
#41
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H11/11
NCAA
CBC Valladolid
#6
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H14/11
Segunda FEB
Detroit
#453
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A14/11
NCAA
79.6Avg total
38.6Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.136.474.6+1.753%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.135.976.1+4.273%-
Last 30 away (15)36.136.973.1-0.833%-
Last 10 (10)38.641.079.6-2.440%-
Last 5 (5)37.039.676.6-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)34.838.072.8-3.220%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)40.036.776.7+3.375%-
vs Weaker (8)39.534.173.6+5.462%-
This opponent (Ball State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Ball State wins
8
Toledo wins
DateGameScore
31/01/26Toledo v Ball State73-55
19/02/25Toledo v Ball State67-66
18/01/25Ball State v Toledo75-93
14/01/24Toledo v Ball State77-72
03/03/23Ball State v Toledo81-87
04/01/23Toledo v Ball State83-90
05/02/22Ball State v Toledo93-83
19/01/22Toledo v Ball State83-70
11/03/21Toledo v Ball State91-89 OT
06/03/21Toledo v Ball State89-70
Ball Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ASMU Mustangs65-90
10/11/26HBrescia89-64
07/11/26HIndiana State66-69
03/11/26AGeorgia Southern55-67
07/03/26HCentral Michigan85-69
04/03/26AWestern Michigan74-71 OT
28/02/26ANorthern Illinois79-43
25/02/26HUMass74-73 OT
20/02/26HAkron65-78
18/02/26AOhio57-69
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ADetroit85-72
14/11/26HCBC Valladolid80-88
11/11/26HWright State68-76
08/11/26ASpanish Basketball Academy77-85
07/11/26AMarshall81-76
06/11/26AMichigan State61-91
03/11/26AArkansas State70-71
01/11/26HJaen Paraiso93-81
25/10/26AMoron81-90
18/10/26HAlgeciras100-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ball State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game68.877.560.0
Allowed / game72.566.578.5
Point differential-3.8+11.0-18.5
Avg total141.2144.0138.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Toledo
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW40%
HomeL0%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games514
Win %40%0%50%
Points / game73.068.074.2
Allowed / game77.276.077.5
Point differential-4.2-8.0-3.2
Avg total150.2144.0151.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron330100%84.062.7+21.3
2 Central Michigan440100%83.865.8+18.0
3 Bowling Green330100%86.376.0+10.3
4 Miami (Ohio)330100%84.076.0+8.0
5 Western Michigan43175%79.060.8+18.2
6 Eastern Michigan32167%77.363.3+14.0
7 UMass32167%66.064.3+1.7
8 Ohio32167%76.075.7+0.3
9 Northern Illinois53260%79.473.2+6.2
10 Toledo52340%73.077.2-4.2
11 Kent State31233%83.375.3+8.0
12 Buffalo31233%77.779.0-1.3
13 Ball State41325%68.872.5-3.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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