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Toledo vs Ball State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Jan 2023
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 83-90
37-40 46-50
Position#18
Record9-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game79.5
vs
Position#103
Record9-4
FormWWWWW
Points / game76.5
Allowed / game65.8
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Toledo v Ball State
31 Jan 2026
TOLE73
BALL55
18 Feb 2025
TOLE67
BALL66
13 Jan 2024
TOLE77
BALL72
03 Jan 2023
TOLE83
BALL90
18 Jan 2022
TOLE83
BALL70
11 Mar 2021
TOLE91
BALL89
05 Mar 2021
TOLE89
BALL70
29 Feb 2020
TOLE69
BALL63
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toledo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ball State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMKC
#305
L
71-83
71
83
-12
A21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
L
75-86
75
86
-11
H22/11
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#98
W
82-69
82
69
+13
A23/11
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#239
W
90-67
90
67
+23
H01/12
NCAA
George Mason
#120
L
73-80
73
80
-7
A03/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
W
83-75
83
75
+8
A07/12
NCAA
Canisius
#310
W
69-68
69
68
+1
H10/12
NCAA
Marshall
#38
L
85-100
85
100
-15
A17/12
NCAA
Vermont
#68
W
84-72
84
72
+12
A20/12
NCAA
Lourdes
#397
W
103-88
103
88
+15
H29/12
NCAA
1H
2H
38-33
33-50
33-32
42-54
45-33
37-36
40-33
50-34
32-35
41-45
40-31
43-44
32-29
37-39
44-45
41-55
42-28
42-44
48-35
55-53
160.3Avg total
81.5Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)85.079.5164.5+5.569%
Season at home (7)89.679.1168.7+10.486%
Season away (6)79.779.8159.5-0.250%
Last 10 (10)81.578.8160.3+2.760%
Last 5 (5)84.880.6165.4+4.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)87.385.7173.0+1.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)82.272.2154.4+10.076%
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana South Bend
#391
W
86-72
86
72
+14
H19/11
NCAA
Vermont
#68
L
73-78
73
78
-5
H25/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
W
67-64
67
64
+3
H26/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#121
L
65-67
65
67
-2
A27/11
NCAA
Duquesne
#104
L
77-78
77
78
-1
A03/12
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#335
W
76-59
76
59
+17
A08/12
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
88-69
88
69
+19
H10/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
83-69
83
69
+14
H17/12
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#198
W
58-54
58
54
+4
H22/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#297
W
70-63
70
63
+7
H29/12
NCAA
1H
2H
41-34
45-38
32-36
41-42
35-38
32-26
24-31
41-36
40-36
37-42
36-29
40-30
42-28
46-41
41-34
42-35
17-24
41-30
29-28
41-35
141.6Avg total
74.3Scored
67.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)76.565.8142.3+10.669%
Season at home (8)79.263.5142.8+15.888%
Season away (5)72.069.6141.6+2.440%
Last 10 (10)74.367.3141.6+7.070%
Last 5 (5)75.062.8137.8+12.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)73.080.6153.6-7.618%
vs Similar (6)71.870.5142.3+1.350%
vs Weaker (11)75.267.3142.5+7.982%
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.0+6.01st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: -3.3-3.32nd half: +5.1+5.1
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.0+6.01st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: -3.3-3.32nd half: +5.1+5.1
ToledoBall State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMKC
#305
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A21/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#220
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H22/11
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#98
W
45-33
45
33
+12
A23/11
NCAA
Richmond Spiders
#239
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H01/12
NCAA
George Mason
#120
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A03/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A07/12
NCAA
Canisius
#310
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H10/12
NCAA
Marshall
#38
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A17/12
NCAA
Vermont
#68
W
42-28
42
28
+14
A20/12
NCAA
Lourdes
#397
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H29/12
NCAA
72.8Avg total
39.4Scored
33.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.934.674.5+5.367%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.834.272.1+3.661%-
Last 30 away (12)43.035.278.2+7.875%-
Last 10 (10)39.433.472.8+6.080%-
Last 5 (5)41.233.674.8+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)41.739.781.3+2.033%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)40.034.074.1+6.072%-
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ball StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana South Bend
#391
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H19/11
NCAA
Vermont
#68
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H25/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H26/11
NCAA
San Jose State
#121
L
24-31
24
31
-7
A27/11
NCAA
Duquesne
#104
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A03/12
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#335
W
36-29
36
29
+7
A08/12
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H10/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H17/12
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#198
L
17-24
17
24
-7
H22/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#297
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H29/12
NCAA
65.5Avg total
33.7Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.033.368.3+1.853%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.431.466.8+4.056%-
Last 30 away (14)34.635.470.1-0.850%-
Last 10 (10)33.731.865.5+1.960%-
Last 5 (5)33.028.661.6+4.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)33.436.269.5-2.836%-
vs Similar (6)32.334.867.2-2.533%-
vs Weaker (11)35.830.766.5+5.173%-
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Toledo wins
3
Ball State wins
DateGameScore
05/02/22Ball State v Toledo93-83
19/01/22Toledo v Ball State83-70
11/03/21Toledo v Ball State91-89 OT
06/03/21Toledo v Ball State89-70
06/02/21Ball State v Toledo81-67
29/02/20Toledo v Ball State69-63
04/01/20Ball State v Toledo61-57
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/22HLourdes103-88
20/12/22AVermont84-72
17/12/22AMarshall85-100
10/12/22HCanisius69-68
07/12/22ANorthern Iowa83-75
03/12/22AGeorge Mason73-80
01/12/22HRichmond Spiders90-67
23/11/22ANorthern Kentucky82-69
22/11/22HEast Carolina75-86
21/11/22AUMKC71-83
Ball Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/22HChicago State70-63
22/12/22HGeorgia Southern58-54
17/12/22HIllinois State83-69
10/12/22HEvansville88-69
08/12/22AEastern Illinois76-59
03/12/22ADuquesne77-78
27/11/22ASan Jose State65-67
26/11/22HMissouri State67-64
25/11/22HVermont73-78
19/11/22HIndiana South Bend86-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toledo
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW69%
HomeWLWWW86%
AwayWLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %69%86%50%
Points / game85.089.679.7
Allowed / game79.579.179.8
Point differential+5.5+10.4-0.2
Avg total164.5168.7159.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%57%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ball State
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW69%
HomeWWWWW88%
AwayLWLLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %69%88%40%
Points / game76.579.272.0
Allowed / game65.863.569.6
Point differential+10.6+15.8+2.4
Avg total142.3142.8141.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%50%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)67% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kent State1310377%74.860.8+13.9
2 Ball State139469%76.565.8+10.6
3 Akron139469%70.861.2+9.7
4 Toledo139469%85.079.5+5.5
5 UMass139469%69.567.0+2.5
6 Ohio138562%77.570.2+7.3
7 Buffalo136746%78.877.3+1.5
8 Bowling Green136746%75.874.4+1.5
9 Central Michigan135838%69.070.0-1.0
10 Western Michigan134931%68.468.2+0.2
11 Northern Illinois134931%69.276.2-7.0
12 Eastern Michigan1331023%74.180.8-6.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Toledo374683
Ball State405090
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