PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

BC Almaty 2 vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 13:00
Final 94-69
25-15 22-18 22-15 25-21
Position#5
Record14-8
FormWWWWW
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game73.2
BC Almaty 2 🏆
Kazakhstan
vs
Pavlodar
Kazakhstan
Position#14
Record2-20
FormLLLLL
Points / game54.9
Allowed / game90.0
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · BC Almaty 2 v Pavlodar
28 Mar 2026
BC A94
PAVL69
26 Mar 2026
BC A92
PAVL64
05 Apr 2020
BC A v PAVL
upcoming
03 Feb 2020
BC A56
PAVL85
15 Dec 2019
BC A46
PAVL88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BC Almaty 2 winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · BC Almaty 2
Needs player box scores: 6 games per player in the last year.
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 82.4
98.2▲ 15.8
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 73.2
76.6▲ 3.4
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 56%
61%▲ 5%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 17.8
17.5▼ 0.3
🔥 Form · Pavlodar
Needs player box scores: 6 games per player in the last year.
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 57.4
59.2▲ 1.8
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 91.2
90.4▼ 0.8
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 39%
39%▲ 0%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 11.5
11.5▲ 0.0
BC Almaty 2KazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
113-97
113
97
+16
H06/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
92-60
92
60
+32
A07/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
104-57
104
57
+47
H08/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A09/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
70-45
70
45
+25
H02/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
103-99
103
99
+4
A03/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
85-63
85
63
+22
H04/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
105-78
105
78
+27
A05/03
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
92-64
92
64
+28
H26/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
106-79
106
79
+27
A27/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-29
33-16
24-24
24-28
25-24
29-16
18-9
20-11
34-15
30-14
27-18
13-10
13-14
19-10
12-14
13-7
29-4
20-9
11-9
10-23
24-23
25-30
28-27
26-19
18-19
18-19
28-12
21-13
21-14
38-17
30-17
16-30
35-17
21-16
20-13
16-18
30-25
27-20
28-18
21-16
161.4Avg total
92.7Scored
68.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)82.473.2155.6+9.264%
Season at home (11)85.670.4156.0+15.373%
Season away (11)79.276.0155.2+3.255%
Last 10 (10)92.768.7161.4+24.0100%
Last 5 (5)98.276.6174.8+21.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)61.092.8153.8-31.80%
vs Similar (2)86.593.0179.5-6.50%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)87.767.0154.7+20.788%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
60-58
60
58
+2
H18/12
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
52-112
52
112
-60
A18/01
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
52-86
52
86
-34
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
55-93
55
93
-38
H10/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
55-101
55
101
-46
A11/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
57-86
57
86
-29
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
61-98
61
98
-37
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
36-84
36
84
-48
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
64-92
64
92
-28
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-92
78
92
-14
H27/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-15
9-21
23-11
16-11
15-35
2-27
23-26
12-24
17-16
13-28
8-23
14-19
7-28
13-21
17-25
18-19
8-31
12-27
12-23
23-20
14-30
11-15
15-23
17-18
23-29
12-23
16-23
10-23
2-26
12-18
6-28
16-12
17-35
16-21
13-20
18-16
15-24
18-26
23-26
22-16
147.2Avg total
57.0Scored
90.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)54.990.0144.9-35.09%
Season at home (11)57.486.5143.8-29.118%
Season away (11)52.593.5145.9-41.00%
Last 10 (10)57.090.2147.2-33.210%
Last 5 (5)59.290.4149.6-31.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)59.192.6151.7-33.64%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (BC Almaty 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-17-9+0+9+17Q1Q1: +7.7+7.7Q1: -13.9-13.9Q2Q2: +9.3+9.3Q2: -10.9-10.9Q3Q3: +6.5+6.5Q3: -7.2-7.2Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -1.2-1.2
BC Almaty 2Pavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BC Almaty 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
65-45
65
45
+20
H06/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A07/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
64-29
64
29
+35
H08/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
32-24
32
24
+8
A09/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
49-13
49
13
+36
H02/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
49-53
49
53
-4
A03/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H04/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
59-31
59
31
+28
A05/03
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
56-33
56
33
+23
H26/03
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A27/03
Higher League
87.2Avg total
52.1Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.336.883.1+9.467%-
Last 30 at home (13)49.334.283.5+15.277%-
Last 30 away (17)43.938.982.8+5.159%-
Last 10 (10)52.135.187.2+17.080%-
Last 5 (5)51.440.091.4+11.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)32.053.085.0-21.00%-
vs Similar (2)41.042.583.5-1.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)49.133.782.8+15.479%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
L
21-36
21
36
-15
H18/12
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
17-62
17
62
-45
A18/01
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
20-49
20
49
-29
H10/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
20-58
20
58
-38
A11/02
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
25-45
25
45
-20
H12/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
14-44
14
44
-30
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H27/03
Higher League
74.4Avg total
24.8Scored
49.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.548.076.5-19.513%-
Last 30 at home (12)30.345.675.9-15.325%-
Last 30 away (18)27.349.676.8-22.36%-
Last 10 (10)24.849.674.4-24.80%-
Last 5 (5)28.049.477.4-21.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)28.149.077.1-20.911%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (BC Almaty 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
BC Almaty 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BC Almaty 2: 93.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀21%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.1 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.7 pts a game · 21% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.928.6
58.4%
49.5%57.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.16.6
28.4%
28.5%19.7
🏀 Free throws26.016.8
64.5%
63.9%16.8
They take 72.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 73.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.0 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.522.0
40.4%
49.5%44.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.06.5
24.1%
28.5%19.5
🏀 Free throws24.010.0
41.7%
63.9%10.0
They take 81.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/2 games with a box score before 28 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
BC Almaty 2
WWWWWWWWWW
Pavlodar
LLLLLLLLLW
#5
League position
#14
+29.6
Net rating
-20.9
117.2
Offensive rating
83.2
87.5
Defensive rating
104.1
53.3%
Effective FG%
39.0%
43.5%
Opp. effective FG%
53.9%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.29
28.4%
3-point %
24.1%
50.6%
Assist %
40.4%
100%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence117.2 · 83.2Defence87.5 · 104.1Shooting53.3% · 39.0%3-point %28.4% · 24.1%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.36 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)100% · 10%
■ BC Almaty 2   ■ Pavlodar
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
BC Almaty 2 wins
4
Pavlodar wins
DateGameScore
26/03/26BC Almaty 2 v Pavlodar92-64
06/04/23Pavlodar v BC Almaty 275-84
15/11/22Pavlodar v BC Almaty 262-95
20/10/22Pavlodar v BC Almaty 272-91
19/11/20Pavlodar v BC Almaty 273-76
03/11/20Pavlodar v BC Almaty 282-105
28/02/20Pavlodar v BC Almaty 2101-77
03/02/20BC Almaty 2 v Pavlodar56-85
15/12/19BC Almaty 2 v Pavlodar46-88
20/11/19Pavlodar v BC Almaty 2107-67
BC Almaty 2last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/26AKaraganda106-79
26/03/26HPavlodar92-64
05/03/26AChelSU Kostanay105-78
04/03/26HTobol Kostanay 285-63
03/03/26AChelSU Kostanay103-99
02/03/26HTobol Kostanay 270-45
09/01/26AAiRom57-45
08/01/26HArlans104-57
07/01/26AAiRom92-60
06/01/26HArlans113-97
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/26HCHAMP1ON78-92
26/03/26ABC Almaty 264-92
14/02/26AKaraganda36-84
13/02/26AAiRom61-98
12/02/26HArlans57-86
11/02/26AAiRom55-101
10/02/26HArlans55-93
19/01/26HAktobe52-86
18/01/26AAktobe52-112
18/12/25HKaspiy Aktau 260-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

BC Almaty 2
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW64%
HomeWWWWW73%
AwayWWWWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %64%73%55%
Points / game82.485.679.2
Allowed / game73.270.476.0
Point differential+9.2+15.3+3.2
Avg total155.6156.0155.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+59%73%45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL9%
HomeWLLLL18%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %9%18%0%
Points / game54.957.452.5
Allowed / game90.086.593.5
Point differential-35.0-29.1-41.0
Avg total144.9143.8145.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%9%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan24240100%89.760.0+29.7
2 Shymkent2421388%95.268.1+27.2
3 Aktobe2420483%83.866.0+17.8
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2419579%85.960.0+25.9
5 Atyrau 22216673%77.767.9+9.9
6 BC Almaty 22214864%82.473.2+9.2
7 ChelSU Kostanay24131154%76.480.0-3.6
8 CHAMP1ON23121152%74.773.5+1.2
9 Karaganda23101343%80.079.0+1.0
10 Tigers-KazATU24101442%67.575.7-8.2
11 Arlans2882029%73.683.0-9.4
12 AiRom2852318%63.282.5-19.3
13 Tobol Kostanay 22442017%68.483.1-14.8
14 Pavlodar222209%54.990.0-35.0
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2221215%53.083.6-30.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
BC Almaty 22522222594
Pavlodar1518152169
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.