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Bilbao vs Neptunas Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 27 Sep 2024
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 95-59
18-24 29-12 26-15 22-8
Position#2
Record1-0
FormLLLLW
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game66.0
Bilbao 🏆
vs
Position#42
Record0-1
FormLWLWL
Points / game66.0
Allowed / game74.0
EuropeFIBA Europe CupFIBA Europe Cup - Final· Bilbao Arena
European cup2024
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilbao winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BilbaoLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBilbao
Date
Competition
Breogan
#16
W
80-68
80
68
+12
78avg 76
A30/03
ACB
Chemnitz
#2
W
82-73
82
73
+9
75avg 76
A03/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Gran Canaria
#7
W
81-71
81
71
+10
79avg 76
H06/04
ACB
Tenerife
#5
L
84-101
84
101
-17
83avg 76
A13/04
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#15
L
72-75
72
75
-3
63avg 76
H21/04
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
L
68-81
68
81
-13
64avg 76
A27/04
ACB
Palencia
#18
L
80-97
80
97
-17
67avg 76
H04/05
ACB
Manresa
#9
L
81-90
81
90
-9
70avg 76
A09/05
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
68-72
68
72
-4
45avg 76
H12/05
ACB
Neptunas
#42
W
74-66
74
66
+8
74avg 76
A24/09
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-9
21-23
19-16
24-20
18-21
21-15
18-23
25-14
19-21
17-13
24-13
21-24
21-20
30-27
15-25
18-29
18-19
22-19
19-22
13-15
15-14
12-22
21-23
20-22
17-24
20-27
21-22
22-24
17-24
20-26
21-13
23-27
19-24
18-14
10-18
21-16
21-19
16-12
16-15
21-20
156.4Avg total
77.0Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)74.066.0140.0+8.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)74.066.0140.0+8.0100%
Last 10 (10)77.079.4156.4-2.440%
Last 5 (5)74.281.2155.4-7.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)79.686.8166.4-7.230%
vs Similar (13)78.275.8154.1+2.454%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)82.976.3159.1+6.657%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
114-112 OT
114
112
+2
112avg 81
H17/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
L
79-92
79
92
-13
80avg 81
H22/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
L
77-88
77
88
-11
68avg 81
H27/04
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
85-86
85
86
-1
85avg 81
H01/05
LKL
Siauliai
#10
L
98-104
98
104
-6
92avg 81
A05/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
84-91
84
91
-7
72avg 81
A13/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
95-76
95
76
+19
96avg 81
H15/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
80-91
80
91
-11
66avg 81
A18/05
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
90-84
90
84
+6
76avg 81
A21/09
LKL
Bilbao
#2
L
66-74
66
74
-8
57avg 81
H24/09
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-19
19-21
23-11
26-36
26-24
20-21
12-20
21-27
27-24
18-19
10-15
22-30
15-15
31-14
21-24
18-33
19-21
33-22
19-25
27-36
22-31
20-14
21-19
21-27
30-23
23-23
26-10
16-20
16-26
15-14
26-24
23-27
19-12
17-21
22-24
32-27
19-21
12-16
15-16
20-21
176.6Avg total
86.8Scored
89.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)66.074.0140.0-8.00%
Season at home (1)66.074.0140.0-8.00%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)86.889.8176.6-3.030%
Last 5 (5)83.083.2166.2-0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)84.186.5170.6-2.443%
vs Similar (5)78.878.8157.6+0.080%
vs Weaker (11)85.786.1171.8-0.445%
This opponent (Bilbao) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -5.8-5.8
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -5.8-5.8
BilbaoNeptunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BilbaoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Breogan
#16
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A30/03
ACB
Chemnitz
#2
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A03/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Gran Canaria
#7
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H06/04
ACB
Tenerife
#5
W
51-47
51
47
+4
A13/04
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#15
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H21/04
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
L
27-36
27
36
-9
A27/04
ACB
Palencia
#18
L
37-51
37
51
-14
H04/05
ACB
Manresa
#9
L
37-50
37
50
-13
A09/05
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H12/05
ACB
Neptunas
#42
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A24/09
FIBA Europe Cup
77.1Avg total
37.8Scored
39.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.339.678.9-0.460%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.337.979.2+3.471%-
Last 30 away (16)37.541.178.6-3.650%-
Last 10 (10)37.839.377.1-1.560%-
Last 5 (5)35.041.276.2-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)40.941.182.0-0.270%-
vs Similar (13)39.038.577.5+0.562%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)37.439.777.1-2.343%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H17/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H22/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H27/04
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H01/05
LKL
Siauliai
#10
W
52-43
52
43
+9
A05/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A13/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
53-46
53
46
+7
H15/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A18/05
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A21/09
LKL
Bilbao
#2
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H24/09
FIBA Europe Cup
82.1Avg total
42.0Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.340.181.4+1.250%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.141.182.2-0.147%-
Last 30 away (15)41.539.080.5+2.553%-
Last 10 (10)42.040.182.1+1.960%-
Last 5 (5)38.640.278.8-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)40.739.480.1+1.343%-
vs Similar (5)40.638.078.6+2.660%-
vs Weaker (11)42.441.884.2+0.555%-
This opponent (Bilbao) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bilbaotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bilbao: 76.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.119.2
54.7%
52.6%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.86.9
27.8%
34.0%20.7
🏀 Free throws20.716.9
81.6%
72.6%16.9
They take 59.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 85.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.721.1
54.5%
52.6%42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.39.6
32.8%
34.0%28.8
🏀 Free throws20.314.8
72.9%
72.6%14.8
They take 68.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Sep 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bilbao
WLLLLLLWWW
Neptunas
LWLWLLLLLW
#2
League position
#42
-4.1
Net rating
-4.0
103.5
Offensive rating
108.6
107.5
Defensive rating
112.6
49.3%
Effective FG%
52.2%
48.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
19.0%
Turnover %
16.5%
28.7%
Off. rebound %
27.5%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.30
27.8%
3-point %
32.8%
59.4%
Assist %
69.4%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence103.5 · 108.6Defence107.5 · 112.6Shooting49.3% · 52.2%3-point %27.8% · 32.8%Ball care19.0% · 16.5%Off. rebounds28.7% · 27.5%Free throws0.35 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)40% · 30%
■ Bilbao   ■ Neptunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Bilbao wins
0
Neptunas wins
DateGameScore
24/09/24Neptunas v Bilbao66-74
Bilbaolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/09/24ANeptunas74-66
12/05/24HBarcelona68-72
09/05/24AManresa81-90
04/05/24HPalencia80-97
27/04/24ABasquet Girona68-81
21/04/24HObradoiro CAB72-75
13/04/24ATenerife84-101
06/04/24HGran Canaria81-71
03/04/24AChemnitz82-73
30/03/24ABreogan80-68
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/09/24HBilbao66-74
21/09/24ARytas90-84
18/05/24ABC Wolves80-91
15/05/24HBC Wolves95-76
13/05/24ABC Wolves84-91
05/05/24ASiauliai98-104
01/05/24HBC Wolves85-86
27/04/24HPieno Zvaigzdes77-88
22/04/24HNevezis79-92
17/04/24HZalgiris Kaunas114-112 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bilbao
FIBA Europe Cup 2024
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game74.0-74.0
Allowed / game66.0-66.0
Point differential+8.0-+8.0
Avg total140.0-140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
Neptunas
FIBA Europe Cup 2024
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
HomeL0%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %0%0%-
Points / game66.066.0-
Allowed / game74.074.0-
Point differential-8.0-8.0-
Avg total140.0140.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Maroussi220100%102.078.0+24.0
2 Dijon110100%95.084.0+11.0
3 Anorthosis220100%84.074.5+9.5
4 Bilbao110100%74.066.0+8.0
5 CSM Constanta21150%76.571.0+5.5
6 Alba Fehervar21150%94.593.0+1.5
7 BC Prievidza21150%93.094.5-1.5
8 BC Dnipro21150%71.076.5-5.5
9 Spirou Charleroi1010%69.069.0+0.0
10 Sporting CP1010%69.069.0+0.0
11 Neptunas1010%66.074.0-8.0
12 Starlites2020%74.584.0-9.5
13 Dinamo Zagreb1010%84.095.0-11.0
14 Peja2020%78.0102.0-24.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bilbao1829262295
Neptunas241215859
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