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BC Wolves vs Neptunas Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 18 May 2024
Tip-off: 14:20
Final 91-80
26-16 14-15 24-26 27-23
Position#3
Record24-9
FormWWWWL
Points / game87.4
Allowed / game80.1
vs
Position#6
Record17-17
FormLLLLW
Points / game85.6
Allowed / game86.1
LithuaniaLKLLKL - Quarter-finals· Avia Solutions Group Arena
Domestic2023-24
Meetings · BC Wolves v Neptunas
11 May 2025
WOL96
NEP84
07 Dec 2024
WOL102
NEP86
18 May 2024
WOL91
NEP80
13 May 2024
WOL91
NEP84
27 Jan 2024
WOL92
NEP73
15 Feb 2023
WOL79
NEP63
17 Nov 2022
WOL84
NEP90
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BC Wolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BC WolvesLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWolves
Date
Competition
Rytas
#2
L
83-99
83
99
-16
71avg 80
A24/03
LKL
Juventus
#4
W
100-88
100
88
+12
100avg 80
H30/03
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
102-83
102
83
+19
103avg 80
H06/04
LKL
Mazeikiai
#7
W
104-78
104
78
+26
101avg 80
H10/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
W
111-79
111
79
+32
117avg 80
H20/04
LKL
Siauliai
#10
W
91-65
91
65
+26
93avg 80
A27/04
LKL
Neptunas
#6
W
86-85
86
85
+1
76avg 80
A01/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
97-93
97
93
+4
89avg 80
H05/05
LKL
Neptunas
#6
W
91-84
91
84
+7
81avg 80
H13/05
LKL
Neptunas
#6
L
76-95
76
95
-19
68avg 80
A15/05
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-27
25-23
25-19
14-30
27-25
20-24
27-14
26-25
23-27
30-24
27-16
22-16
26-21
30-23
23-15
25-19
30-13
30-31
24-22
27-13
25-26
28-13
21-13
17-13
15-15
14-31
24-21
33-18
17-26
35-13
25-26
20-28
31-22
14-20
19-21
27-21
23-30
23-23
10-26
20-16
179.0Avg total
94.1Scored
84.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)87.480.1167.5+7.373%
Season at home (18)91.478.9170.3+12.583%
Season away (15)82.681.6164.2+1.060%
Last 10 (10)94.184.9179.0+9.280%
Last 5 (5)88.284.4172.6+3.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)77.186.2163.3-9.127%
vs Similar (3)83.383.0166.3+0.367%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)91.280.2171.4+11.075%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Mazeikiai
#7
W
91-89
91
89
+2
91avg 82
H01/04
LKL
Jonava
#8
W
81-78
81
78
+3
74avg 82
A08/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#5
W
88-84
88
84
+4
87avg 82
H13/04
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
114-112 OT
114
112
+2
112avg 82
H17/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
L
79-92
79
92
-13
80avg 82
H22/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
L
77-88
77
88
-11
68avg 82
H27/04
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
85-86
85
86
-1
85avg 82
H01/05
LKL
Siauliai
#10
L
98-104
98
104
-6
92avg 82
A05/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
84-91
84
91
-7
72avg 82
A13/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
95-76
95
76
+19
96avg 82
H15/05
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-21
15-20
32-22
23-26
18-20
15-18
14-22
34-18
20-27
23-14
31-22
14-21
19-19
19-21
23-11
26-36
26-24
20-21
12-20
21-27
27-24
18-19
10-15
22-30
15-15
31-14
21-24
18-33
19-21
33-22
19-25
27-36
22-31
20-14
21-19
21-27
30-23
23-23
26-10
16-20
179.2Avg total
89.2Scored
90.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)85.686.1171.7-0.450%
Season at home (18)86.485.4171.9+1.056%
Season away (16)84.886.8171.5-2.044%
Last 10 (10)89.290.0179.2-0.850%
Last 5 (5)87.889.0176.8-1.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)84.887.9172.7-3.242%
vs Similar (5)78.878.8157.6+0.080%
vs Weaker (13)86.584.5171.0+1.954%
This opponent (BC Wolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +2.4+2.4Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -5.2-5.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +2.4+2.4Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -5.2-5.2
BC WolvesNeptunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BC WolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rytas
#2
L
44-50
44
50
-6
A24/03
LKL
Juventus
#4
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H30/03
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
53-51
53
51
+2
H06/04
LKL
Mazeikiai
#7
W
56-44
56
44
+12
H10/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
W
60-44
60
44
+16
H20/04
LKL
Siauliai
#10
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A27/04
LKL
Neptunas
#6
L
29-46
29
46
-17
A01/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H05/05
LKL
Neptunas
#6
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H13/05
LKL
Neptunas
#6
L
46-53
46
53
-7
A15/05
LKL
94.2Avg total
48.5Scored
45.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.843.086.8+0.860%-
Last 30 at home (16)47.442.790.1+4.875%-
Last 30 away (14)39.643.382.9-3.643%-
Last 10 (10)48.545.794.2+2.860%-
Last 5 (5)45.043.888.8+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)39.543.382.7-3.845%-
vs Similar (3)38.745.384.0-6.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)47.842.390.1+5.475%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mazeikiai
#7
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H01/04
LKL
Jonava
#8
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A08/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#5
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H13/04
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H17/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H22/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H27/04
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H01/05
LKL
Siauliai
#10
W
52-43
52
43
+9
A05/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A13/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
53-46
53
46
+7
H15/05
LKL
84.5Avg total
43.4Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.940.982.8+1.050%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.541.683.1-0.150%-
Last 30 away (14)42.440.182.6+2.350%-
Last 10 (10)43.441.184.5+2.360%-
Last 5 (5)47.641.288.8+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)42.541.083.5+1.542%-
vs Similar (5)40.638.078.6+2.660%-
vs Weaker (13)41.941.983.8+0.054%-
This opponent (BC Wolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
BC Wolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BC Wolves: 93.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.020.9
56.5%
55.4%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.011.6
41.4%
34.7%34.8
🏀 Free throws23.117.0
73.6%
73.2%17.0
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 88.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.422.3
58.1%
55.4%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.49.8
34.5%
34.7%29.4
🏀 Free throws20.114.6
72.6%
73.2%14.6
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 May 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
BC Wolves
LWWWWWWWWL
Neptunas
WLLLLLWWWW
#3
League position
#6
+12.7
Net rating
-0.9
122.8
Offensive rating
113.5
110.1
Defensive rating
114.4
58.9%
Effective FG%
55.4%
55.1%
Opp. effective FG%
52.4%
14.9%
Turnover %
16.9%
30.7%
Off. rebound %
28.3%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.30
41.4%
3-point %
34.5%
65.2%
Assist %
75.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence122.8 · 113.5Defence110.1 · 114.4Shooting58.9% · 55.4%3-point %41.4% · 34.5%Ball care14.9% · 16.9%Off. rebounds30.7% · 28.3%Free throws0.36 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ BC Wolves   ■ Neptunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
BC Wolves wins
4
Neptunas wins
DateGameScore
15/05/24Neptunas v BC Wolves95-76
13/05/24BC Wolves v Neptunas91-84
01/05/24Neptunas v BC Wolves85-86
27/01/24BC Wolves v Neptunas92-73
08/10/23Neptunas v BC Wolves66-98
07/05/23Neptunas v BC Wolves75-104
15/02/23BC Wolves v Neptunas79-63
17/11/22BC Wolves v Neptunas84-90
05/11/22Neptunas v BC Wolves100-80
20/10/22Neptunas v BC Wolves85-81
BC Wolveslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/05/24ANeptunas76-95
13/05/24HNeptunas91-84
05/05/24HZalgiris Kaunas97-93
01/05/24ANeptunas86-85
27/04/24ASiauliai91-65
20/04/24HPieno Zvaigzdes111-79
10/04/24HMazeikiai104-78
06/04/24HNevezis102-83
30/03/24HJuventus100-88
24/03/24ARytas83-99
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/05/24HBC Wolves95-76
13/05/24ABC Wolves84-91
05/05/24ASiauliai98-104
01/05/24HBC Wolves85-86
27/04/24HPieno Zvaigzdes77-88
22/04/24HNevezis79-92
17/04/24HZalgiris Kaunas114-112 OT
13/04/24HLietkabelis88-84
08/04/24AJonava81-78
01/04/24HMazeikiai91-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

BC Wolves
LKL 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL73%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayLLWWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331815
Win %73%83%60%
Points / game87.491.482.6
Allowed / game80.178.981.6
Point differential+7.3+12.5+1.0
Avg total167.5170.3164.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+52%61%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)50% (2)75% (4)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Neptunas
LKL 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW50%
HomeWLLLW56%
AwayWWWLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games341816
Win %50%56%44%
Points / game85.686.484.8
Allowed / game86.185.486.8
Point differential-0.4+1.0-2.0
Avg total171.7171.9171.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%28%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (12)67% (6)67% (6)
Overtime %9%6%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas3329488%88.772.8+15.9
2 Rytas3428682%94.380.5+13.7
3 BC Wolves3324973%87.480.1+7.3
4 Juventus34201459%87.882.6+5.2
5 Lietkabelis34191556%85.184.2+0.9
6 Neptunas34171750%85.686.1-0.4
7 Mazeikiai34132138%77.283.9-6.7
8 Jonava34122235%82.586.9-4.4
9 Nevezis32112134%84.491.3-6.9
10 Siauliai3292328%82.287.8-5.6
11 Pieno Zvaigzdes3162519%83.095.0-12.0
12 Gargzdai1731418%77.994.1-16.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
BC Wolves2614242791
Neptunas1615262380
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