Boise State faces Butler on 8 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Boise State as the clear favourite because it leads the season with a 1-0 record, 132.0 points per game and only 53.0 points allowed, while Butler sits at 2-0 with 97.5 points per game and 62.5 allowed; the model rates Boise State 92% to win and 8% for Butler, projecting a 86-70 score for a total of 156.5 points. Boise State has won its only home game 132-53 against West Coast Baptist, and its last five games show four wins and one loss, with a recent 132-53 home victory; Butler's two wins came at home, 99-65 over Fairleigh Dickinson and 96-60 over Lafayette, and a 81-91 loss to Providence, with three wins and two losses in its last five. Their head-to-head record is even, 1-1, with Boise State's last meeting a 77-68 win on 6 December 2025. The spread is Boise State -2.0 with a 90% chance to cover, the over line is 152.0 with a 61% probability, and the game has a 2% chance of overtime. Boise State's dominant offensive output and Butler's limited scoring suggest a decisive victory for the Broncos.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Boise State winWon
91.8%fair 1.09
Best odds1.69
Implied57.7%
Edge+34.1pp
Butler winLost
8.2%fair 12.17
Best odds2.28
Implied42.3%
Edge-34.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147Actual: Over 147
Over 147
72.4%
@ 1.34+2.9pp
Under 147
27.6%
@ 3.05-2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.05
Over/Under 152 · main lineActual: Over 152
Over 152
60.9%
@ 1.86+8.0pp
Under 152
39.1%
@ 2.62-8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.66
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Over/Under 157Actual: Over 157
Over 157
48.4%
@ 1.87-6.3pp
Under 157
51.6%
@ 2.10+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Be
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.92
SBO
1.87
📊 3. Team Totals
Boise State total 71.5Actual: Boise State over 71.5
Over 71.5
no forecast
@ 1.15
Under 71.5
no forecast
@ 5.00
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
4.75
Boise State total 76 · main lineActual: Boise State over 76
Over 76
85.9%
@ 1.85+35.9pp
Under 76
14.1%
@ 1.85-35.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Boise State total 80Actual: Boise State over 80
Over 80
74.6%
@ 1.85+24.3pp
Under 80
25.4%
@ 1.87-24.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Butler total 71Actual: Butler over 71
Over 71
46.2%
Under 71
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Butler total 75 · main lineActual: Butler over 75
Over 75
30.6%
@ 1.85-19.4pp
Under 75
69.4%
@ 1.85+19.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Butler total 78.5Actual: Butler over 78.5
Over 78.5
20.3%
@ 1.93-28.3pp
Under 78.5
79.7%
@ 1.85+28.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Boise State -5.5Actual: Boise State -5.5
BOIS -5.5
82.8%
@ 2.25+41.4pp
BUTL +5.5
17.2%
@ 1.65-41.4pp
Best 5 market prices
BOIS
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.10
BUTL
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Spread Boise State -2.5 · main lineActual: Boise State -2.5
BOIS -2.5
88.8%
@ 1.90+38.1pp
BUTL +2.5
11.2%
@ 1.95-38.1pp
Best 5 market prices
BOIS
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.83
BUTL
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Boise State +0.5Actual: Boise State +0.5
BOIS +0.5
91.8%
BUTL -0.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
BOIS
No market prices yet.
BUTL
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Boise StateButler
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Boise StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Mexico
#50
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A08/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H14/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H25/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A01/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H04/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
36-28
36
28
+8
A07/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H12/03
NCAA
West Coast Baptist
#487
W
69-26
69
26
+43
H05/11
NCAA
68.7Avg total
38.0Scored
30.7Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 72.5
Last 30 (30)
35.7
32.4
68.1
+3.3
67%
30%
Last 30 at home (18)
36.4
31.1
67.6
+5.3
72%
22%
Last 30 away (12)
34.6
34.4
69.0
+0.2
58%
42%
Last 10 (10)
38.0
30.7
68.7
+7.3
80%
30%
Last 5 (5)
41.2
29.0
70.2
+12.2
80%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)
29.4
33.8
63.2
-4.4
60%
20%
vs Similar (17)
34.9
32.2
67.1
+2.6
65%
24%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)
41.4
32.0
73.4
+9.4
75%
50%
This opponent (Butler) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Butler win
BOIS win
no forecast
@ 1.75
BUTL win
no forecast
@ 2.10
2nd half Spread Boise State -1.5 · main lineActual: Butler +1.5
BOIS -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
BUTL +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Over 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Boise State (regulation)
BOIS
no forecast
@ 1.78
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
BUTL
no forecast
@ 2.15
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Boise State -9
74.3%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+44.2pp
Won
Boise State -8
77.2%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+44.2pp
Won
Boise State -7
79.9%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+44.1pp
Won
Boise State -6
82.4%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+43.6pp
Won
Boise State -10
71.2%
3.35
Bet365
3.35
-
-
-
-
+43.5pp
Won
Boise State -4.5
85.1%
2.11
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.99
-
+43.0pp
Won
Boise State -4
86.9%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.18
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+42.9pp
Won
Boise State -5
84.8%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+42.7pp
Won
Boise State -7.5
77.8%
2.62
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.60
-
-
-
+42.6pp
Won
Boise State -8.5
75.0%
2.85
Betano
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
+42.6pp
Won
Boise State -9.5
72.1%
3.12
Bet365
3.15
Betano
3.10
-
-
-
+42.5pp
Won
Boise State -6.5
80.4%
2.45
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
-
-
-
+42.4pp
Won
Boise State -5.5
82.8%
2.19
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.10
-
-
+41.4pp
Won
Boise State -3.5
87.2%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.87
-
+41.1pp
Won
Boise State -3
88.6%
1.95
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.90
-
+40.4pp
Won
Boise State -2.5
88.8%
1.86
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.86
1xBet
1.83
+38.1pp
Won
Boise State -2
90.5%
1.81
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.74
+37.3pp
Won
Boise State +2
93.8%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.52
-
+36.9pp
Won
Boise State (regulation)
90.5%
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Betano
1.67
-
-
+36.6pp
Won
Boise State over 76
85.9%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+35.9pp
Won
Boise State -1.5
90.7%
1.73
SBO
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
+35.1pp
Won
Boise State +1.5
92.7%
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
+35.0pp
Won
Boise State -1
91.7%
1.74
1xBet
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
-
+34.8pp
Won
Boise State win
91.8%
1.64
1xBet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.63
+34.1pp
Won
Boise State +1
92.6%
1.66
1xBet
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.58
-
+33.5pp
Won
Boise State over 77
83.4%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+33.4pp
Won
Butler under 75.5
70.5%
2.28
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.27
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
+31.8pp
Lost
Boise State over 78
80.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+30.7pp
Won
Boise State +2.5
93.9%
1.52
Marathon Bet
1.63
1xBet
1.55
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
+30.4pp
Won
Boise State +3
94.6%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+29.2pp
Won
Butler under 78
79.1%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+28.8pp
Lost
Butler under 77.5
76.8%
1.89
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.95
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.82
+28.4pp
Lost
Butler under 78.5
79.7%
1.83
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
+28.3pp
Lost
Butler under 76.5
73.8%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.07
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
-
+28.2pp
Lost
Boise State +3.5
94.6%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Won
Boise State over 76.5
83.9%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.39
-
+28.1pp
Won
Boise State over 79
77.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Won
Boise State +4
95.4%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+27.5pp
Won
Boise State +4.5
95.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+26.2pp
Won
Butler under 77
76.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
-
-
+26.1pp
Lost
Boise State over 78.5
78.5%
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.55
+25.7pp
Won
Boise State over 77.5
81.3%
1.59
Marathon Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
+25.6pp
Won
Boise State +5
96.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Won
Boise State over 80
74.6%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+24.3pp
Won
Boise State +5.5
96.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+24.3pp
Won
Butler under 76
72.9%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
Boise State over 79.5
75.4%
1.80
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
+22.5pp
Won
Boise State +6.5
96.8%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
Boise State +7.5
97.3%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
Boise State over 80.5
72.1%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
+21.8pp
Won
Boise State over 74.5
88.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Boise State over 73.5
90.1%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Boise State over 75.5
86.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Boise State +12.5
98.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Boise State +17.5
99.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+8.3pp
-
Boise State +22.5
99.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Under 165.5
71.3%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
Over 148
70.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Over 147
72.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 181.5
93.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Under 166.5
73.4%
1.31
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
Over 131.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Under 177.5
90.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Lost
Under 165
70.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Lost
Over 132.5
93.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Under 172.5
83.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Lost
Under 167.5
75.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Lost
Under 176.5
89.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Lost
Over 136.5
89.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Under 171.5
82.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Lost
Boise State under 99.5
90.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Lost
Over 137.5
87.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Over 141.5
82.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Over 146.5
72.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 142.5
80.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Boise State under 98.5
89.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Lost
Boise State under 97.5
87.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Lost
Butler over 57.5
89.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Over 147.5
70.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Butler over 58.5
87.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Boise State under 96.5
84.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Lost
Boise State under 95.5
82.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Lost
Butler over 59.5
85.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Butler over 60.5
83.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Boise State under 94.5
79.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Lost
Boise State under 93.5
76.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Lost
Butler over 61.5
80.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-11.0pp
Won
Butler over 62.5
77.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
Boise State under 91.5
70.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-13.6pp
Lost
Boise State under 92.5
73.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-14.4pp
Lost
Butler over 63.5
74.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-15.9pp
Won
Butler over 64.5
71.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-17.5pp
Won
Butler +22.5
71.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-17.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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